WW3 Countdown

The European strategy for the Ukraine conflict with Russia has completely fallen apart and is going nowhere.

Ukraine’s European and US backed 40 day drone campaign against Russia has not only failed but the repercussions have severely damaged Ukraine itself.

Upcoming Russian parliamentary elections in Russia sees Putin seeking a public mandate to increase the intensity and scope of the conflict.


The Europeans and their constant rattling on about Putin the great dictator and an imperial Russia that seeks to conquer all of Europe has run into a huge snag, they’re going to lose their proxy war and so now what do they do?

If any of the constant stream of propaganda dribble was actually true then the only course of action now for the Europeans is WW3 obviously. The problem there is that it was all bullshit all the while and now they need to come to some kind of an arrangement with Russia and that’s going to be a complete U-turn that’s going to make all these European leaders look very stupid but given that WW3 is the only other alternative they’re just going to have to live with it.

Russia has now completely blocked Ukraine’s essential trade sea ports in Odessa and is severing the bridge connecting Odessa to the rest of Ukraine. Getting supplies in and out of Ukraine is now going to be seriously interrupted either by sea or from Romania and continuous supply lines are essential to maintaining a war of attrition.

Putin will be looking to expand the conflict after the Russian elections in September from a war of attrition into a war of manoeuvre where the seizing of territory will be the objective rather than just the wearing down of the opponent.

Shifting to Iran and it’s starting to look like the US is settling into a long war but with severe supply side problems of their own.

So this means a war where it’s 1 month on, 1 month off. The month off is to restock the missiles that continue to dribble off US production lines, Patriot air defence missiles for example at about 2 a day, 60 for the month.

What’s the point? Well it keeps Iran tied up, Israel intact, and means no pay outs to Iran that would be an embarrassment to Trump. The Straits are semi-open which hurts China more than the US and the US MIC get their ‘forever war’.

A degree of global deindustrialisation also does more harm to China than the US so there is that as well but most important of all is that Trump doesn’t have to actually surrender. Can he run it out for another 2 years though?


TIME HAS COME: Ukraine Should Accept Russia Terms or LIKELY SUFFER TOTAL DEFEAT

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 10.08.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 10.08.26
personnel – about 1,459,210 (+1,470) persons
tanks – 12,255 (+2) units
armored combat vehicles / troop-carrying
AFVs – 25,116 (+13) units
artillery systems – 47,669 (+48) units
MLRS – 2,019 (+6) units
anti-aircraft systems – 1,558 (+2) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,181 (+10) units
UAV operational-tactical level – 452,994 (+1,746) units
cruise missiles – 5,007 (+0) units
warships – 35 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 132,236 (+461) units
special equipment – ​​4,511 (+6) units
Data are being updated.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
48 min
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 11.08.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 11.08.26
personnel – about 1,460,400 (+1,190) persons
tanks – 12,259 (+4) units
armored combat vehicles / troop–carrying
AFVs – 25,120 (+4) units
artillery systems – 47,713 (+44) units
MLRS – 2,020 (+1) units
anti–aircraft systems – 1,560 (+2) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,190 (+9) units
UAV operational–tactical level – 454,572 (+1,578) units
cruise missiles – 5,007 (+0) units
warships – 35 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 132,543 (+307) units
special equipment – ​​4,514 (+3) units

Gold continues to hold its bullish channel, with the preferred idea being to buy a pullback around 4,350–4,360, targeting 4,390 → 4,420 → 4,440, with risk invalidated below 4,325. Alternatively, a confirmed 1H close above 4,420 could open the way toward 4,440–4,460. A sustained break below 4,320 would weaken the bullish structure. Wait for confirmation and manage risk.

Ogee wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 6:04 pm Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says Warsaw could be ready to transfer several MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine within weeks


France accused of delaying EU’s €2bn plan to replenish Ukraine’s artillery shell stocks

Paris wants guarantees that a deal to jointly procure weapons will only benefit EU firms - The Telegraph


An attack on a Russian aircraft in neutral air space will be a declaration of war, - the Russian ambassador in Washington responded to the threats of senators


Shoigu told Austin that US drone flights off the coast of Crimea are provocative, create prerequisites for escalation - Russia MoD

Shoigu pointed out to Austin that the reason for the incident with the drone was the actions of the United States for non-compliance with the flight restriction zone declared by the Russian Federation.

What’s going on in the Iran war?

Well not much, Trump is still sulking, his airforce won't fly over Iran to drop dumb bombs, his navy won't come within 1000km of Iran’s coast, and his army won't land on the mainland unless they can run away immediately afterwards.

Meanwhile the US oil reserve is still running down and it won’t be long before just salt water remains in the salt caverns and those countries that have been dipping in to keep away from the actual market which has kept price down (Japan, South Korea and Europe) will about now have to return to the market which still has a limited supply meaning price rises are coming.

Iran won’t surrender because they don’t have to and Trump won’t because his ego won’t let him. All he can do now is walk away from the region with some over-the -shoulder assurances to the Gulf states that ‘he’ll be back’.

Meanwhile the Gulf states are trying to sign new defence agreements with Pakistan and Turkey and anyone else for that matter to make up for the disappointment that is the US.

Very reminiscent of Zelensky when he toured Europe signing all those defence agreements with all the European countries that weren’t worth the paper they were written on.

And speaking of Ukraine, Odessa is taking a real FAB bomb pounding since the Russians blockaded the ports in what some commentators are saying looks very like a shaping operation for a ground assault, but that would seem a bit ambitious given that it would need to be an amphibious landing this early on, rather than the expected over land route once the Russians have crossed over the Dnipro river.

All very interesting, meanwhile the noose continues to be tightened around the Donbas with Ukraine drones attacking Russian troops in houses on the outskirts of Druzhkivka and there are Russian reports that 30% of the Zaporizhzhia oblast city of Orikhiv is now under Russian control. Orikhiv is the last stop before Zaporizhzhia city itself.



Russia Hits Odessa As Black Sea Standoff Risks Wider War

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 12.08.26 amounted to /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 12.08.26
personnel – about 1,461,660 (+1,260) persons
tanks – 12,259 (+0) units
armored combat vehicles / troop–carrying
AFVs – 25,127 (+7) units
artillery systems – 47,773 (+60) units
MLRS – 2,022 (+2) units
anti–aircraft systems – 1,561 (+1) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,203 (+13) units
UAV operational–tactical level – 456,339 (+1,767) units
cruise missiles – 5,007 (+0) units
warships – 35 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 132,931 (+388) units
special equipment – ​​4,516 (+2) units

Ukraine has now embarked on what is basically a slow suicide and it’s hard to see why Zelensky is doing it.

Following Zelensky’s decision to attack Russian energy infrastructure Russia stepped up their attacks on Ukraine’s.

Zelensky then switched to fuel transporters on Crimean highways so the Russians started destroying fuel service stations in eastern Ukrainian cities and have now stretched along all the main roads leading west.

Zelensky then started attacking Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov. Russia responded by attacking all shipping heading for the ports of Odessa effectively blockading Ukraine's only access to the Black Sea.

Following that Zelensky then started attacks on warehouses of Russian online market distribution centers (analog of Amazon) to which Russia responded by attacking any and all warehouses in Ukrainian cities to the point where supermarket shelves are emptying.

Not only are the Russian attacks 10 times more powerful using its full range of drones, FAB glide bombs and missiles, making the problem even worse is that Ukraine by their own admission are completely out of air defence missiles.

And whereas Zelensky stops attacking one target type to concentrate on another the Russians do not and so the Russian attacks on the energy targets and the fuel stations and the ships and the warehouses are all still continuing unabated.

And there is no protest from the west because everyone is aware that Zelensky started it. Once upon a time all these targets would have been condemned, now not a word.

Zelensky’s 40 day drone campaign was to ‘take the war to the Russian people’ but that failed, Russia is just too big for whatever Ukraine has to fire, but Zelensky knew there would be a secondary effect that would increase the hurt on Ukrainian people when Russia retaliated.

As mentioned in previous posts the scene is being set for desperate pleas from Zelensky for an urgent ceasefire and western intervention on humanitarian grounds.

The goal for Zelensky looks to be to force western intervention one way or another, to directly attack Russia or to rescue Ukrainians, and never mind the hurt being caused, which has been a continuing Zelensky theme throughout this war.

In other news Russia has gone from firing 10 ballistic missiles a night to now routinely firing 60 to 100 - not every night but often enough.

The Kyiv Independent newspaper now tells us that Russia will soon be capable of firing 200 ballistic missiles a night just as the Ukrainian military say they will no longer announce daily the missile stats of how many are fired and how many Ukraine managed to shoot down, presumably because that without any air defence they are not actually able to shoot any down.



UKRAINE IS SCREWED: Kiev CAN’T STOP Record Russian GLIDE BOMBS, BALLISTIC MISSILES | Mark Sleboda





KHARKIV FRONT COLLAPSES DOUBLE CAULDRON IN ZAPORIZHZHIA 121ST BRIGADE TRAPPED MS 2026.08.11

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 13.08.26 amounted to /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 13.08.26
personnel – about 1,462,970 (+1,310) persons
tanks – 12,262 (+3) units
armored combat vehicles / troop–carrying
AFVs – 25,130 (+3) units
artillery systems – 47,824 (+51) units
MLRS – 2,023 (+1) units
anti–aircraft systems – 1,562 (+1) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,215 (+12) units
UAV operational–tactical level – 457,973 (+1,634) units
cruise missiles – 5,007 (+0) units
warships – 35 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 133,405 (+474) units
special equipment – ​​4,522 (+6) units

Putin issues direct threat to western shipping if US or European countries attempt to seize any more Russian ships, as the EU threatened to do in the Indian ocean and just passed a law giving themselves the right to sell off the ship and its contents.

Putin termed this as blatant piracy and said that he had instructed his navy to prepare to respond.

Admirals in the Russian navy then explained that they had surveyed ships using Russia’s Exclusive Economic Zone specifically in the north Pacific over the last 4 months and had identified over 1000 possible targets including 379 sailing under flags of, or belonging to, unfriendly countries. The ships include tankers and bulk carriers, many of which Putin termed as being part of European countries ‘shadow fleet’, which just means they sail under a flag of convenience, same as the Russian shadow fleet.

This looks to be a bit more than just a Putin red line and there seems to be a definite plan of action worked out between the politicians and the navy in advance.

Remember too that Russia already has a navy destroyer parked in the English channel that escorts Russian tankers through the channel on a routine basis and which the Brits and the French have not dared to interfere with.

It should also be noted that Putin has not made this announcement without beforehand talking to the Chinese given it’s in their backyard and who have obviously approved the move.

Meanwhile US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is still scrambling around trying to save the global US govt. bond market (treasuries).

The Japanese were going to sell off US treasuries in order to be able to buy up the Yen to stop the Yen decline. Bessent stepped in to buy up the Yen himself instead, but the intervention is failing already.

And South Korea could also be in a similar position to Japan soon, further down the line some of the big European countries especially the UK are approaching shaky ground too and who also hold a large amount of US treasuries that they would sell to save the £ if need be.

Japan is the big problem for Bessent at the moment though because of the ‘carry trade’ associated with the Yen. Because of Japan’s ultra low interest rates institutions borrow Yen at low interest to buy safe US treasuries that pay a higher interest and pocket the difference.

If Japan raises its interest rate to help protect the Yen there would be a global sell off of US treasuries as the carry trade unwinds.

And so Bessent intervened to buy Yen to prop it up, though using US reserves of Euros to do it instead of USD, which really, really pissed off EU central bank head Christine Lagarde. Not that the US cares about diplomacy any more, especially when it’s just dealing with one of its vassals.

But the Yen is dropping again, commentators are worried that what comes next might be a desperate new angle on an old playbook, ‘international’ QE, where the US prints USD to prop up a foreign currency.

Why such drastic possible interventions? Because everything follows the US 10 year treasuries, mortgage rates, credit card rates, all borrowing basically and there are already record levels of debt in the US and global economy.

A treasuries dump means decreasing treasuries price and increasing yields (interest rates).



HORMUZ AND JAPAN TO CRASH U.S. ECONOMY - w/ David Lin

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
56 min
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 14.08.26 amounted to /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 14.08.26
personnel – about 1,464,440 (+1,470) persons
tanks – 12,264 (+2) units
armored combat vehicles / troop–carrying
AFVs – 25,141 (+11) units
artillery systems – 47,870 (+46) units
MLRS – 2,024 (+1) units
anti–aircraft systems – 1,565 (+3) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,229 (+14) units
UAV operational–tactical level – 459,649 (+1,676) units
cruise missiles – 5,007 (+0) units
warships – 35 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 133,853 (+448) units
special equipment – ​​4,524 (+2) units