WW3 Countdown

New Ukrainian army chief Drapati continues with his agenda which is marking out exactly where the Ukrainian army stands as he takes over from Syrsky.

First he initiated an audit of Ukrainian manpower knowing, as had been reported earlier, that Syrsky did not keep a record of losses and rumours that estimations of army unit strengths were probably wildly exaggerated.

Now Drapati has started reorganising troops on the ground by pulling back several groups along the frontlines. Remember that Zelensky always insisted on a ‘no step back’ policy that over the years had resulted in huge losses.

Drapati presumably does not see the sense in Ukraine troops guarding empty potato fields while there are manpower shortages in key cities, we wait to see what military genius Zelensky has to say about these new fangled ideas.

Zelensky was always more concerned with optics and PR rather than the actual situation on the battlefield, his main job was to keep the western money flowing, not preserving manpower.

Russian troops have already reported open spaces appearing in front of them where just the day before were Ukraine positions.

Not forgetting of course that this is not a war of manoeuvre where the taking of territory is key, but is a war of attrition where a continuous supply of men and machines to the front is key.

As in WW1 where the 2 armies stood toe to toe fighting in France for 4 years until one side stopped receiving supplies and suddenly it was all over.

As much as western media has been trying to convince everyone that it’s the Russians who are the ones suffering huge losses and whose economy was collapsing, in truth it has always been Ukraine who were going to run out of resources first, especially after the west’s military stores started to run dry.

And we are constantly told that the attacking army (Russia) takes 3 x the losses of the defending army but this is not actually true. The misconception comes from the actual military doctrine that says that the attacking side should have a 3 x advantage in numbers to increase the probability of success.

The attacking army might take x3 losses, but it also might have more, or even much less.

Remember though that the propaganda of the Russian human wave attacks is not borne out by the evidence. Time and again we see the Russians approach a target city, send out wide flanking moves to create pincers and then concentrate long range fires on the target city from 3 sides using drones, artillery and glide bombs, and that might continue for weeks before there is any attempted assault by infantry at all.

In this case it’s the defending side that is taking huge losses and even more so when they are forced to withdraw from their defensive positions as they have been in city after city since the end of 2023.

And now a new threat to Ukrainian supply lines after Zelensky ordered the drone attacks on Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov, Putin responded by shutting down the Ukrainian ports in Odessa, the only sea ports Ukraine had and that were responsible for transporting 70% of overall goods and 90% of money earning agricultural goods.

Ukrainian manpower issues and arms and ammunition supply issues are becoming serious problems and there doesn’t seem any respite coming. US air defence missiles are gone, the Russians are using even their subsonic missiles at will, the US is said to have less than 1000 Pac 3 Patriot interceptor missiles left in total and those are being used up at a hefty rate in the middle east, the US only produces 650 a year.

The Russian air force, now not hindered by Ukrainian air defence, are flying close enough to Odessa to release heavy glide bombs on the city. In the Donbass the Russians have reached within 5 km of the start of the Druzhkivka/ Kramatorsk/Sloviansk conjoined conurbation having already lined the whole ridgeway overlooking the valley that the town and 2 cities lay in.


Very good video below with John Mearsheimer, a bit long (60 min) but ok for the weekend. Good discussion on how to get around the problem of after demonising your opponent, how then to start negotiating with them?



John Mearsheimer: Ukraine Is Landlocked & Donbas Enters Endgame

My perspective has changed; I increasingly hope that Russia wins this war—or at least deals a blow to U.S. confidence.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 01.08.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 01.08.26
personnel – about 1,447,620 (+1,470) persons
tanks – 12,231 (+0) units
armored combat vehicles / troop–carrying
AFVs – 25,060 (+4) units
artillery systems / artillery systems – 47,127 (+82) units
MLRS – 1,980 (+4) units
anti–aircraft systems / anti–aircraft systems –
1,527 (+2) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,097 (+16) units
UAV operational–tactical level – 437,503 (+1,838) units
cruise missiles – 5,005 (+0) units
warships – 34 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 128,497 (+463) units
special equipment – ​​4,484 (+1) units

Jedidiah wrote: Fri Jul 31, 2026 11:38 pm My perspective has changed; I increasingly hope that Russia wins this war—or at least deals a blow to U.S. confidence.

Well done, you’ve taken a big step in the right direction but you’re still only halfway there.

When it comes to politics, wars and trading it’s essential to prevent emotion creeping into the decision making process. Sure sometimes it will look like it works but ultimately it will cause ruin.

So keep hope, wishes, dreams as well as fear and revenge out of the process and stick to plain facts and common sense.

As per the old boxing adage, a good big’un will always beat a good little'un, well not always, but probability wise they will, and so it is with trading.

Always stick with the high probability bets unless you really, really know what you’re doing.

With wars and politics there is also the added confusion of the inevitable accompanying propaganda designed to confuse truth and reality and spin a trail leading in the opposite direction, but which can usually be uncovered successfully with a bit of research and common sense - unless you really emotionally want to believe, in which case the deception will likely be successful no matter how smart you are.

Good luck and keep posting.

Trump now vows to start another 2 week bombing campaign on Iran following the Iranian first strike on the US bases in Jordan.

Just to be clear, this follows the US 13 day bombing campaign through which Iran retaliated day after day and after which there was a 2 day lull when no strikes took place.

And then, for the first time ever, Iran struck first which has reignited Trump.

As I said in previous posts I think this a mistake, some analysts are saying that Iran did this to force Trump to conclude he does not have a real military option and does not have escalation dominance, which is true, but trying to force that down Trump’s throat could be costly because a superpower with lots of money can create an awful lot of problems for Iran for decades to come.

Same as the US did after the hostage crisis in the early 1980s, which was also a mistake by Iran, costing them 50 years of sanctions that kept them out of world markets.

Trump really can just walk away leaving the whole mess for the Chinese to clean up, they need the oil afterall, and the Iran sanctions stay in place for another 50 years. The US can also set up proxies to keep harassing Iran for years to come. There will be an immediate oil crisis but new pipelines can be built and the Straits made redundant in time.

That basic scenario could be the most likely now given that US missile stocks will be depleted and the US oil reserve will be empty. In 2 weeks the hot war could stop, the US fleet could sail away and the US could stop giving oil to South Korea and Japan.

That kept South Korea and Japan out of the oil market and so, along with the Chinese using their own reserves instead of buying, kept the price of oil down relatively speaking.

The US for its own needs just has to import heavy oil from Canada to mix with their own light fracked oil, no problem, it’s the rest of the world that has an oil shortage. The US will regret a global recession but you know, ho hum.

The whole point of all this was to try to prevent the loss of US global hegemony but the deep state probably has another plan up their sleeve anyway so never mind.


Douglas Macgregor: Iran Became the Graveyard of the U.S. Empire & Israel

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 02.08.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 02.08.26
personnel – about 1,449,120 (+1,500) persons
tanks – 12,231 (+0) units
armored combat vehicles / troop-carrying
AFVs – 25,070 (+10) units
artillery systems – 47,196 (+69) units
MLRS – 1,988 (+8) units
anti-aircraft systems – 1,529 (+2) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,108 (+11) units
UAV operational-tactical level – 439,291 (+1,788) units
cruise missiles – 5,007 (+2) units
warships – 34 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 128,953 (+456) units
special equipment – ​​4,486 (+2) units

Iran war now 11 countries directly involved and 7 indirectly involved including the world's biggest nuclear superpowers as Trump restarts his missile campaign.

Sanity would say it’s perhaps time to step back and reconsider the situation but clearly that’s not going to happen.

Trump really wants to send the bombers over Iran to drop the big gravity bombs but the planes will be shot down by Iran’s air defence so that’s still a no-go realistically.

Maybe Trump thinks that he needs to get in before the Chinese MPAD shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles are deployed but Iran is already able to shoot down enemy aircraft flying over Iran which is why the US haven’t done much of it since the start.

Sticking with the bombing theme and Zelensky arrived back in Ukraine from his US visit without any Patriot air defence missiles at all having written down the need for 300 on his shopping list.

Now he’s had to admit in a social media post that only 1 Russian missile was shot down over Kiev in the latest attack. Also of note is that over the last few weeks Russia has been increasing the number of missiles used in their attacks, previously they would routinely use around 10 at a time but recently that number has been approaching 100 (sub, super, and hypersonics) at a time.

And worse still is the prospect of Russian aircraft launching their ‘cheap as chips’ FAB glide bombs at Kiev as they have been doing at Odessa.

Russian missiles typically carry a 400kg - 500kg warhead though it should be noted that missile speed adds to its kinetic blast power.

Russia’s FAB 500 (kg explosive warhead) glide bomb is the typical workhorse but they also come in 1,500kg and 3,000kg, so far larger than any missile, and then there’s the monstrous 9,000kg glide bomb if need be.

So not sure what Zelensky plans to do from here, his own 40 day drone campaign against Russia that was supposed to force Putin to the negotiating table on his knees and the war over by Autumn has been a total failure ending up costing Ukraine all their sea ports in Odessa.

One thing we do know about Zelensky is that he won’t be sparing the Ukrainian people any hardships and will watch it all burn so long as the money keeps rolling in, presumably he’s still making those weekly deposits to his personal bank account in Dubai.

A few interesting stats emerged recently; in Ukraine 1 in 3 is a pensioner and there is a 1 to 1 pensioner to worker ratio, and that a poll of Ukrainians that left Ukraine two thirds say they won’t go back even after the war is over. Can’t say as I blame them.


Also don't miss the hilarious interview with Robert Barnes talking about Trump linked below;


Zelensky, Ukraine Without Patriots. Huge Russian Strike Shatters Kiev. Zaporozhye Breakthrough





TRUMP ON SPAIN MIGRANT INVASION: "THAT'S GOING TO BE US IN THREE YEARS" — w/ Robert Barnes

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
31 min.
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 03.08.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 03.08.26
personnel – about 1,450,510 (+1,390) persons
tanks – 12,232 (+1) units
armored combat vehicles / troop-carrying
AFVs – 25,075 (+5) units
artillery systems / artillery systems –
47,276 (+80) units
MLRS – 1,996 (+8) units
anti-aircraft systems / anti-aircraft systems –
1,533 (+4) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,112 (+4) units
UAV operational-tactical level –
440,948 (+1,657) units
cruise missiles – 5,007 (+0) units
warships – 34 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 129,438 (+485) units
special equipment – ​​4,492 (+6) units

Trump tacos for the 97th time and also strings along the same old bullshit that the Iranians have contacted him begging him not to attack and how desperate they were to make a deal, and so for the sake of world peace he relented. Meanwhile Trump family and friends made another billion in the markets coincidentally foreseeing this surprise move by Trump.

There cannot be a single person left on the planet still believing this complete and utter corrupt nonsense.

This time there was an extra sting though because Trump was threatening to hit Iranian oil infrastructure which would have meant Iran retaliating in kind and Saudi leaders for the first time threatened Trump that if he went ahead with this plan they would sell off US treasuries to the value of the cost of repairs inflicted by the Iranian retaliation.

This new twist from the Saudi’s made the Trump admin sit up and listen, the US 10 year yield is already too close to 5% which is considered a trigger point likely to lead to a larger sell off possibly causing an urgent need for the Fed to start hiking their Fed funds overnight interest rates which would adversely affect the whole US economy.

And an interesting report from US analyst Jennifer Kavanagh who tells us the the Ukrainian drone and missile systems have now been linked to the US satellite intel systems which is a level of integration comparable with actual NATO status and could lead Russia to take a more aggressive stance when considering how much of Ukraine it should occupy as a buffer zone.

Meanwhile the company making the Ukraine Flamingo missile claims to be making 90 a month though there are only ever around 5 being launched at any one time and usually all are being brought down by Russia's highly integrated air defence system. Russian AWAC aeroplane radar locates the missiles and sends coordinates and targeting data to all of the different Russian ground based air defence systems along the route.


Oil price is back in focus as the US oil reserve dipstick is close to reading zero meaning the US and Japan and South Korea will all need to return to the market to buy which will inevitably cause the price to rise. The US deal with the Asian countries was that they would need to replace the oil the US effectively loaned them at a set time in the future no matter the price though no one knows when that date is. China also recently returned to the market having been using their reserves as well though currently still buying at much lower amounts than before the closure of the Straits.

No recommended video today so far, everyone waiting for Trump's first post of the day.

But don't forget the brilliant Robert Barnes video linked in the last post, absolute must see if not watched yet.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
2 hours
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 04.08.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 04.08.26
personnel – about 1,451,750 (+1,240) persons
tanks – 12,237 (+5) units
armored combat vehicles / troop–carrying
AFVs – 25,079 (+4) units
artillery systems – 47,331 (+55) units
MLRS – 2,000 (+4) units
anti–aircraft systems – 1,538 (+5) units
aircraft – 439 (+0) units
helicopters – 354 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 2,124 (+12) units
UAV operational–tactical level – 442,740 (+1,792) units
cruise missiles – 5,007 (+0) units
warships – 34 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 129,817 (+379) units
special equipment – ​​4,492 (+0) units