commodus wrote: Fri Jul 28, 2023 5:52 am
Mr.sam first of all thanks for sharing and teaching your amazing work. its outstanding that someone with mathematical and statistical theories build a robust system for trading..
the orbit seems so outstanding to me specially because of certainties and logic behind it. as you said it has simillarities with other great systems in our froums. for example you could check XARD system in 4tf (semaphores,channels,and etc..) but the orbit seems more robust and i started to learning it..
but i have two concerns
1- relying just on a system wich depends on expiry date Which noone never knows the end date!
2- simplilfying the basic rules for using with some alarms, or compounding it with other good performs systems or templates which are more familiar to our past experiences
ps: concern 1 is so important to me,because i think all these system are just tools and learing to fishing shoud not depends on just one Borrowed tool with expiry! this is more immportant from having fishes.
Thank you for your open and direct post ----------> Simply lovely. First, Orbit will always be around on the Station always (one way or another. Even when I fell ill I made sure), so do not worry about that. Small tiny changes (in timing and spacing) over time can make for huge changes in accuracy of direction so we have need to update the lookbacks every once in a while (which are not calculated based on clock time but on deformation rates (the market is a homoeomorphic process)). Exposed and available without limit therefore is not as useful as dated and updated as need be. The cloud version would have no need for that it will adjust automatically on slight changes in pattern. I hope you get my sense.
The tool you are using right now is a
prototype put out to get attention from specific groups (not necessarily traders), to show that the cloud version which is the goal is not just possible but that in fact the prototype can bear witness to that fact ahead. Indeed, Orbit the Tool would be unrecognizable once developed for the Cloud it will be an outrage and for the simple fact that at that point people would be outraged that it was kept under wraps for so long (ignoring the fact that it is going to cost a lot of money to implement and that is taking a lot of time as a whole range of people - especially traders just do not understand it because of a culture of hurry and irrational hope that an MA crossover can give them the holy grail so see no reason why they should look at anything requiring some new thinking at all). But good luck to so called "technical" trading because I can laugh right now and say without any fear of contradiction whatsoever --------> there will NEVER come a day when you get the holy grail from a crossover or any other "technical" indicator or some so-called "trading system" until you overcome "extreme sensitivity to initial conditions or chaos" - this is what we show here and now. Orbit the tool has overcome that but needs to be in the cloud to be that more obvious.
But with "technical" thinking that is not possible - the great John Ehler came closest with his Fisher transforms and other really good tools he made - he was (to my mind), the best. But he is an engineer and in my thinking the flaw in all of his approach was to apply engineering math to his notion of cyclicality based on engineering ideas from DSP (and ignoring Mandelbrotian randomness). Sine curve like market cycles are too smooth and he could not get them to pinpoint tops and bottoms because markets are rough and their cycles are aperiodic so he really got close but that is it.
Now to the question of simplicity I would argue that giving you a
2 step approach as in the
Orbit Scalper is super simple and of course giving you a
single step entry for main trades cannot get simpler than that. But the issue is this people have no time they are such losers they have accepted that they can never win because the market confounds most completely so most traders have actually given up and are locked in that attitude of hopelessness with no real desire to better themselves. But just that like gamblers they have become addicted to this thing we call charts. Why do I say so. Chaos is NOT "technical" analysis - "technical" analysis has not a clue about what it means and absolutely no clue about market dynamics so absolutely no similarities between chaos theory and what people know and use at this time. So in order to make clear the ideas we spend a lot of time explaining them because without the ideas people will fail as evidenced here by 2 step methods of trading and a single step method of trading still seeming to be complicated. All because to explain why 1 step and 2 steps work you need some information and far less and more straightforward than Elliot Waves or Harmonics which all traders including me are well versed in despite their totally pointless complexity.
Nothing can be simpler than what we have now. What people object to really is
A NEW IDEA . These are after all penniless "experts" who know everything about trading so "why waste my time trying to understand something said to be new and different they seem to be saying." Well that is a fair choice to make but if you are going to become a millionaire by chaos at least know what it says, why and how it is meant. Then you will see why a simple and single step takes you from A to B certain and then you can also vary your style trading. Who can show me in all of trading a single step or a 2 step trading format. We cannot have a no step at all approach. So I like the sound of you but I fear you also may falter soon just because you may not have the time to gain the understanding before wanting to trade the tool and see a single step format as all the Icons on the screenface and wonder which one should I follow because "technicals" has left folks with the illusion that simplicity is norm and a thing as complex as a market is resolved by a 5 period MA crossing over a 10 period MA. What is my point?
What you see as complexity has to do with introducing chaos and how it works and thereafter the actual tool is simpler than any so called trading system to trade. I hope I am sharing my thoughts effectively and do forgive me even if you think I am obnoxious doing so as I am simply frustrated by this curious situation - people who will not learn to fly the F16 want to be top gun F16 fighter pilots in combat the next day. Anything worth doing takes doing plain and simple. I have done my best and cannot be contradicted by the facts - it is simple because it is a
mathematical model (NOT a trading system) and everything is done for you (far, far more so in the cloud version), but if you do not understand what is inverse on, or what is structure preserving transformation how can you trust to enter and hold a trade on the inverse on command since to you, you are being asked to follow a change in some indicator and you have all your life without much difference - so what is new in this case? Once you are like that then the time and effort taken to lead you in to a different set of expectations is all lost. MY TIME. So to cut an already too long a story short. read the Orbit Books try out the ideas, ask questions and breakout with it if you can. I am not saying this because I made the tool I am saying this because I lost money when I came into trading some 16 years ago - lost over 65K$ and for a poor African that is unforgivable and all for what? Jerks who did not know what they were talking about. I mean I am not exactly an idiot and hold an MBA from one of the Top business schools in the UK so how come "fundamental" analysis did not work for me? How come I knew "technical" analysis was a sham after a year, etc That is why in part I spent time since making sure that nonsense stops where everyone but traders make money and all on the back of traders. So if you want you can do it but not on your terms - you must learn the language and thinking to see and trade the simplicity that is chaos. Thanks and cheers.
(-_-)