Re: Technical Versus Fundamental Analysis

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太虚一毫 wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:34 pm
Regardless of the fundamentals it has to be confirmed with technicals anyways
There is proven methods in books of fundamental analysis but those trades are situational only

Divergences are the only way of catching a more likely reversal unless of course orderflow on centralized exchange

Support & Resistance is proven either by a real volume profile// open interest profile on a centralized exchange such as futures or by the mere fact price may bounce off/ break of where it first was pushed / straight up and down or channel (in direction of a trend)

additional Commitment of traders report which is a lagging indicator, to help see what side different players have been on, which is still too slow for me anyways

W D Gann is enough proof price action is king
Further more i think SSA single spectrum analysis takes price action into consideration even though it may repaint such as price can move anywhere
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Re: Technical Versus Fundamental Analysis

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太虚一毫 wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:34 pm There are many resistance and support indicators. Fibonacci, pivots, channels, moving averages, trend lines, etc., can be counted in the category of resistance and support.
The question is: has anyone used mathematical methods to prove whether the statement of "resistance, support" is reliable?
The answer is: yes and no
Despite the fact that all areas of support & resistance (or which other phrases you use to describe those areas) are mostly broken by price, they work for some traders because they interpret price behaviour around those areas in such a way that they can mostly predict what is going to happen, i. e. have a statistical edge.
One obvious example:
If there is a break of the above mentioned areas is this a break (or a fake), for example.
It is impossible to have working criteria that actually test the areas in exactly the same way they are "used" by experienced traders who "almost feel" whether price will come back or not etc...
Technical vs fundamental:
this opposition is a construction that doesn't solve any trading problem whatsoever.
Both can work, both can fail.
The only question that counts is whether the trader has a statistical edge or not.
And the only way to know this is to do your homework and test your strategy (Gaussian distribution needs a minimum of 1000 cases).
For a retail trader it is more likely that fundamental won't work because she or he is the last person in a very long line of people to receive the news/fundamental information that influences price. I think it is as simple as that.
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Re: Technical Versus Fundamental Analysis

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太虚一毫 wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:34 pm There are many resistance and support indicators. Fibonacci, pivots, channels, moving averages, trend lines, etc., can be counted in the category of resistance and support.

The question is: has anyone used mathematical methods to prove whether the statement of "resistance, support" is reliable?
Here is full text from GPT-4 | https://poe.com/s/aDg7ez9vjKgSaCNN8h0u
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In conclusion, while there is some evidence to suggest support and resistance levels can be effective in certain circumstances, their reliability is not universally proven. As with any trading strategy, it's essential for traders to manage risk and use a combination of tools and techniques to develop a comprehensive approach to the markets.
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Re: Technical Versus Fundamental Analysis

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DTRCT wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 5:24 pm
Image


Here is full text from GPT-4 | https://poe.com/s/aDg7ez9vjKgSaCNN8h0u
=
In conclusion, while there is some evidence to suggest support and resistance levels can be effective in certain circumstances, their reliability is not universally proven. As with any trading strategy, it's essential for traders to manage risk and use a combination of tools and techniques to develop a comprehensive approach to the markets.
Support and resistance levels should be obvious on the chart and are likely places for pending orders to be placed. But they give no indication as to weather the majority of pending orders placed there are buy or sell orders so you have no way of telling if the level will hold or fail. You would need 'depth of market' information to help with that.
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Re: Technical Versus Fundamental Analysis

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DTRCT wrote: Mon Apr 17, 2023 5:24 pm In conclusion, while there is some evidence to suggest support and resistance levels can be effective in certain circumstances, their reliability is not universally proven. As with any trading strategy, it's essential for traders to manage risk and use a combination of tools and techniques to develop a comprehensive approach to the markets.
But - that's what I meant: you don't know when the algorithm counted an area as broken (was it price closed above it, for example, as is most likely? - If so, what about fake outs? Is this another break in the opposite direction when price comes back etc.).
If you don't know exactly what the algorithms' criteria for hold vs break where (and whether they were the same in all algorithms), then you don't really know all that much, if anything at all.
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Re: Technical Versus Fundamental Analysis

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I must say fundamentals are champ
Even sentiment doesnt mean those people are right
& could change their minds or be lying
Its literally impossible for a market to go opposite directions if the economy is booming unless some black swan event happened

There is alot of confusion because of intermarket connection and what everything means that is why people choose not to use it

Bonds Stocks Commodities & Currencies do & dont go together depending on inflationary or deflationary conditions
And one currency may affect the other because of close connection
Speeches may have high affects because of high expectations given in statements beforehand as well
& overnight interest rates that had no warning

takes alot of work but makes everything make sense
I can see moves days ahead without even needing a chart
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