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Re: Forecasting indicators for MT4

11 by Banzai
mladen wrote: Thu Feb 16, 2017 12:02 am Forecasting indicators for MT4

Holt's double exponential smoothing indicators ...

Holt's double exponential smoothing with linear forecasting- Double Exponential Smoothing
Like the regression forecast, the double exponential smoothing forecast is based on the assumption of a model consisting of a constant plus a linear trend.

For the purposes of a forecast where the parameters of the model may change, it is more convenient to express the model as a function of, where is the positive displacement from a reference time T.

The estimate a and b at time T are based in the observation at time T and the estimates for the previous period, T -1.

Here we have both the constant and trend coefficients estimated by exponential smoothing. The forecasting parameters, for the constant term and for the trend term can be set independently. Both parameters must be between 0 and 1.

The forecast for the expected value for future periods is the constant plus a linear term that depends on the number of periods into the future.

Do forecasting indicators repaint?

As usual with the forecasting parts, do not use it in signaling mode. The forecasting part is a subject of change and should be used only as an estimation of trend component of the double smoothing, not as signal. Alerts in this indicator are not alerting on the change of the forecast part, but on the change of the "past" part - which is not going to change with time past.

Holt's Double Exponential Smoothing
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Krunal Gajjar, thomdel

Re: Forecasting indicators for MT4

12 by Banzai
matfx wrote: Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:03 am i-DRProjections_v1 indicator, The indicator forecasts the current day's price range on the basis of the previous day data. All calculations are based on the book "New Science of Technical Analysis" by Thomas R. DeMark. Available for both Metatrader 4 and Metatrader 5.
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macd & rsi

Re: Forecasting indicators for MT4

13 by Banzai
Regression Average

Code: Select all

https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/180002/page89#comment_4432739
Mladen Rakic 2016.09.12 05:07 #889 EN
This is a sort of regression explorer, ...

What it does is the following : calculates regression of any degree, converts that value into an "end-pointed regression" (ie : average, ie: non-recalculating, non-repainting value) draws that as a kind of average, and for the current bar it draws the regression channel too, including the extrapolated (future) projection of the current channel. So, the "average" itself does not recalculate/repaint (ever) but the channel itself is doing what any regression channel does : it fits itself (recalculates) depending on the current price changes

As a comparison : if you use degree 1, then it is a linear regression and the values in that case have to be exactly the same as linear regression sketcher (if the parameters are the same)

In short : this can be treated as an end-point (non-repainting) regression too (not just as a "regression explorer")
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RodrigoRT7

Re: Forecasting indicators for MT4

14 by Banzai




Mean Reversion

Can't find the source code.

The indicator is set up according to the standard instructions and is a price channel consisting of 7 lines. The bar line in the center is called the "center of gravity". In reality, all other lines are calculated based on one standard deviation from the central one. The channel has overbought and oversold zones located between the gray and extreme lines of the channel. It is worth paying special attention to these two areas.
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Sutatong

Re: Forecasting indicators for MT4

20 by Banzai
Hidden Markov Model (HMM) trading strategy

It’s far more powerful than most retail traders realize.

A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) trading strategy
is a way to let the market tell you what regime it is in
instead of you guessing with indicators.

It answers one core question:
“Is the market trending, ranging, or transitioning right now?”

and it updates that belief every candle using probability.
1️⃣ What an HMM actually is (in trading terms)

An HMM assumes:

You can’t see the true market state
…but you can see price, volume, volatility, momentum.

Each candle produces observations:
  • Return
  • Volatility
  • Range
  • Momentum
  • Volume
The model updates:
“Given what I just saw, what is the probability we are in each state?”

That’s why it is called Hidden Markov.
2️⃣ Why HMM beats indicator stacking
Indicators are all:
  • Looking at different things
  • On different time horizons
  • Without knowing the market regime
HMM solves that.

Instead of:
“RSI is oversold, MACD crossed, Stoch crossed, Fib is hit”

You get:
“We are in a 78% probability trending-down regime”

So:
  • In trend → you only use pullbacks
  • In range → you only fade extremes
  • In chaos → you do nothing
Indicators become servants, not decision makers.
3️⃣ How HMM works in a trading system

A real HMM strategy has 3 layers:

Layer 1 — Regime detection (HMM)
Every candle:

Code: Select all

P(Trend Up)
P(Trend Down)
P(Range)
P(High Vol)
Layer2.png
Layer 3 — Your indicators
Now your RSI, Stoch, MACD are only used inside the correct regime.

Example:
  • If HMM says trend down
  • Stoch overbought → sell
  • MACD pullback → sell
If HMM says range
  • Stoch extremes → fade
This removes 70% of bad trades instantly.
You can change the blue line to light gray line.
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Abdi

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