USDCHF Technical Analysis: Breaks 100-day SMA/38.% Fibo

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USD/CHF Technical Analysis: Breaks 100-day SMA/38.% Fibo. confluence support, bears targeting 0.9900 mark

  • Having failed to capitalize on the overnight goodish rebound, the pair faced rejection near 200-hour SMA on Thursday and tumbled to 3-1/2 week lows in the last hour.
  • Today's steep declined confirmed the previous session's bearish break through a one-week-old trading range and turned out to be a key factor prompting fresh technical selling.


USD/CHF 1-hourly chart
  • The bearish momentum has been strong enough to drag the pair below 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.9716-1.0100 recent upsurge.
  • Oscillators on 4-hourly/daily charts have just started gaining negative momentum and point to an extension of the bearish trajectory towards testing the 0.9900 handle.


Daily chart
  • However, oversold conditions on the 1-hourly chart might turn out to be the only factor that might help limit deeper losses ahead of today’s release of advance US Q4 GDP print.


Technical levels to watch

Overview:
Today Last Price: 0.9948
Today Daily change: -63 pips
Today Daily change %: -0.63%
Today Daily Open: 1.0011

Trends:
Daily SMA20: 1.0015
Daily SMA50: 0.9939
Daily SMA100: 0.9958
Daily SMA200: 0.991

Levels:
Previous Daily High: 1.0016
Previous Daily Low: 0.9962
Previous Weekly High: 1.0061
Previous Weekly Low: 0.9981
Previous Monthly High: 0.9996
Previous Monthly Low: 0.9716
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.9995
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.9983
Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.9977
Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.9942
Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.9923
Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.0031
Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.005
Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0085

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-t ... 1902281110
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DislikeUSD sinks after Fed decision

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The USD sinks. Stocks reverse higher. Yields fall after Fed decision

The FOMC says they will not raise rates in 2019.

The FOMC more dovish statement and dot plot has pushed the USD lower, stocks higher and yields lower.

For the USD, the greenback is now lower vs all the major currencies with the exception of the GBP.


For the USDJPY, the pair has tumbled below its 200 hour MA and a lower trend line at 111.23, the 61.8% at 111.16 and is now cracking below the low from March 13 at 111.00.


For the EURUSD, the price is up testing the 61.8% of the 2019 range and the end of February high (both are at 1.1419)


The S&P went from -13 points just before the release to +1.58 points now.
  • The Nasdaq moved from -20.75 points before the release to +23 points now.
  • The Dow moved from -160.25 points to -49 points now.

IN the US debt market,
  • 2 year 2.447% to 2.3899% now
  • 10 year 2.585% to 2.545% now
  • 30 year 3.000% to 2.988%

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... n-20190320
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US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Decent contention turned up in the 97.00 neighbourhood

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US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Decent contention turned up in the 97.00 neighbourhood

  • The index is attempting to leave behind the recent correction lower, rebounding from the solid support area around 97.00 the figure.
  • The ongoing drop is viewed as corrective only while Immediate target on the upside remains at 2019 highs in the 97.70/75 band ahead of 97.87, June 2017 peaks.
  • In the broader picture, the outlook on DXY remains constructive while above the key 200-day SMA, today at 95.90.

DXY daily chart

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar ... 1904040719
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US Dollar Index bounces off lows, looks to regain 97.00

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US Dollar Index bounces off lows, looks to regain 97.00


  • The index alternates gains with losses near 97.00.
  • Yields of the US 10-year note remain below 2.5%.
  • US Producer Prices, Initial Claims next on the docket.

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index (DXY), has managed to regain some composure and is now approaching the key barrier at 97.00 the figure.

US Dollar Index focused on upcoming data

After three consecutive daily pullbacks, the index is now showing some signs of life and it is flirting with another move to the 97.00 neighbourhood.

The mixed tone from the FOMC minutes on Wednesday forced the buck to give away part of the ground gained in response to the dovish tone at the ECB event and its impact on EUR/USD.

According to yesterday’s minutes, members of the Committee did not discuss the probability of rate cuts at the latest meeting, although ‘several’ members see the policy could swing in either direction and ‘some’ members favoured higher rates in the next move by the Fed.

In the US data space, the usual weekly report on the labour market is due along with Producer Prices for the month of March. In addition, Fed speakers will also keep the attention around the buck later in the day: VP R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish) will speak at the Annual IIF Meeting in Washington, St. Louis Fed J.Bullard (voter, dovish) speaks on ‘Economy and Monetary Policy’, Governor R.Quarles (permanent voter, hawkish) will participate in a FSB Roundtable, Minneapolis Fed N.Kashkari (non-voter, dovish) will hold a Q&A session via Twitter and Governor M.Bowman (permanent voter, centrist) will speak on ‘Community Banking’.

What to look for around USD

DXY keeps tracking the broad risk appetite trends while headlines coming from the US-China/US-EU trade fronts also collaborate with the price action. The recent mixed views from the FOMC minutes reinforce the neutral stance of the Fed in the next months, although a rate raise has not been ruled out just yet. On the greenback’s positive side we find solid US fundamentals, its safe haven appeal, favourable yield spreads vs. its peers and the status of global reserve currency. This, plus the Fed’s neutral/bullish prospects of monetary policy vs. the dovish shift seen in its G10 peers are expected to keep occasional dips in the buck shallow for the time being.

US Dollar Index relevant levels

At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.04% at 96.88 and faces initial contention at 96.85 (low Apr.10) seconded by 96.62 (55-day SMA) and finally 95.74 (low Mar.20). On the other hand, a break above 97.52 (high Apr.2) would expose 97.71 (2019 high Mar.7) and finally 97.87 (monthly high Jun.20 2017).

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Image) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar ... 1904110718 (Article)
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IdeaUSD: Get Ready for a Big Move in the Dollar

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Currency Traders Should Get Ready for a Big Move in the Dollar

  • Past slumps in FX volatility have preceded big dollar moves
  • JPMorgan global currency volatility gauge at five-year low

Currency traders should brace for a large move in the dollar, if past periods of low volatility are a guide.

Over the last 25 years, there have been three previous troughs in the JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index. Each time, the U.S. Dollar Index has moved around 10 percent over the subsequent 6-months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The volatility gauge is currently trading at its lowest in 5 years.


“We’ve seen this type of pattern show up a number of times before, and each time it did it preceded a major move,” in the dollar, wrote Callum Thomas, founder and head of research at Topdown Charts, in a note to clients. This is great “for both U.S. dollar bulls and bears...the only people it won’t suit is those who expect the U.S. dollar to spend the rest of the year stuck in that tight trading range.”

A trough in currency volatility in 1996 preceded a more than 10 percent rise in the greenback, while a lull in 2014 came before the dollar rose more than 15 percent over the following six months, according to Bloomberg calculations. The volatility slump in 2007 preceded a more than 10 percent drop in the U.S. currency.

Expected swings in foreign-exchange markets have plunged amid a dovish pivot from global central banks and a rally in risk assets after losses late last year. Still, strategists from Morgan Stanley to the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce are warning about a return to more volatile markets.

The Dollar Index has risen about 0.8 percent this year, compared to a 4.4 percent gain in 2018 and a 9.9 percent drop the previous year. The U.S. currency has strengthened against half of its Group-of-10 peers and weakened against the other half.

“As we start to move into the middle and second half of the year, markets will need to reassess their assumptions,” Jeremy Stretch, head of Group-of-10 currency strategy at CIBC in London, said on Bloomberg radio. “That may well bring forth a degree of volatility back into the market.”

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti ... the-dollar
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Re: USD news

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Trump calls on Fed to cut rates by 1% and urges more quantitative easing

President Donald Trump, in his most brazen attack yet on the Federal Reserve, called for the central bank on Tuesday to cut interest rates by 1 percentage point and to implement more money-printing quantitative easing.
In a two-part tweet, the president unfavorably compared the Fed to its China counterpart and said if monetary policy in the U.S. was looser, the economy would “go up like a rocket.”
In the past, White House officials including Trump and top economic advisor Larry Kudlow have recommended the Fed cut rates by half a point. The tweets literally doubled down on that approach.

Full Story :https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/30/trump-c ... asing.html

Re: USD news

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Traders see fading prospects for Fed rate cut

(Reuters) - Traders of U.S. short-term interest rate futures trimmed bets the Federal Reserve would cut rates before the end of the year after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell poured cold water on the idea.

“We think our policy stance is appropriate at the moment; we don’t see a strong case for moving it in either direction,” Powell said in a news conference on Wednesday following the Fed’s two-day meeting, at which it kept rates unchanged.

Full Story: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... ss+News%29

Re: USD news

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If the Federal Reserve ever did a “match,” it would be game over, we win! In any event, China wants a deal!

China will be pumping money into their system and probably reducing interest rates, as always, in order to make up for the business they are, and will be, losing. If the Federal Reserve ever did a “match,” it would be game over, we win! In any event, China wants a deal!
From @realDonaldTrump


ps: can Trump persuade the Fed to cut rate? :think:


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