WW3 Countdown

Escalation in both conflicts over the weekend but the markets are waiting for Trump’s first tweet of the day before deciding which direction to launch off in.

Israel bombed southern Beirut despite Trump telling Netanyahu not to. Iran inevitably responded by send missiles into Israel, Trump tells Netanyahu not to retaliate, but he did anyway.

Trump's response this morning should be interesting.

And in the Ukrainian conflict Zelensky is in London to talk to Starmer and Merz to discuss ways to force Putin to the negotiating table now that Zelensky’s PR campaign has convinced the European elites that Ukraine is winning.

The problem is that Putin doesn’t believe it and just keeps saying no.

But, but, but Ukraine has been drone attacking petrol tankers causing a petrol shortage in Crimea, but the military only uses petrol for their chainsaws, literally everything else runs on diesel, so nothing but a PR stunt.

Same with the hits on refineries and the drones towards the St Petersburg conference, all PR stunts and no effect on Russia’s economy or military at all.

So what will the meeting in London come up with, there is only one last thing that hasn’t been tried yet and that’s the German Taurus cruise missiles and that will have the same impact as the Storm Shadows, none.


CHERNOBYL MIRROR ATTACK & COLLAPSE OF KOSTYANTYNIVKA Military Summary 2026.06.07

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
23 min
REFINED.
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 09.06.26 were approximately:
personnel – about 1,376,320 (+1,370) persons
tanks – 12,001 (+4) units
troop-carrying AFVs – 24,710 (+5) units
artillery systems – 43,639 (+75) units
MLRS – 1,851 (+4) units
anti-aircraft systems – 1,411 (+2) units
aircraft – 436 (+0) units
helicopters – 353 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 1,614 (+7) units
UAV operational-tactical level – 338,327 (+2,103) units
cruise missiles – 4,733 (+0) units
warships – 33 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 104,796 (+382) units
special equipment – ​​4,253 (+4) units

"The Deadliest Weapon is the End of Our Hesitation": General Breedlove's Powerful Speech on Ukraine
Former Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Philip Breedlove stated during his speech that Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine has been going on for 12 years, starting with the occupation of Crimea and Donbas in 2014, and the current attempts of the occupiers to break through the front have finally reached a dead end, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine are successfully advancing and pushing back the enemy in three main directions. The general harshly criticized Western politicians for their illusions about peace agreements, emphasizing that Putin has never been and will never be a partner for peace, and his only serious success remains the “reflexive control” of Washington through nuclear intimidation. According to Breedlove, Russia is suffering a complete military and economic catastrophe: three key state structures are almost bankrupt, and colossal losses of personnel have reached 1.3 million killed and seriously wounded. According to the American general, to end the war, the West must stop hesitating and publicly declare that Russia will not win, because Putin expects to obtain from the United States through diplomacy what his army has never been able to capture on the battlefield.

Once upon a time not long ago the US tried to get Putin overthrown and take control of Russia's energy reserves. 

Then they blew up the Nordstream pipeline to western Europe crippling their energy supply and then made sure it stayed closed causing deindustrialisation throughout the region.

Then they overthrew the Venezuela government and took control of their oil industry.

Then they started a war in the Gulf that guaranteed the Straits would be closed and oil tanker shipping was shut down. 

And when Iran reopened the Straits the US navy introduced their own blockade to make sure the Straits remained closed.

Just what could it all mean? Are the Americans trying to gain a monopoly over the worlds oil in order to control the supply to China?

And then there’s the big 3 European leaders Starmer, Merz and Macron, they just agreed a new brave and progressive 5 point peace plan to present to Putin to end the Ukraine war.

The only snag is that this plan is exactly the same as every plan they've made every month for the last 4 years. Russia must surrender unconditionally and pay Zelensky kazillions in war reparations.

The Russians have marched their army up to the last 4 remaining Donetsk cities still in Ukrainian hands and have nearly completed the capture of 2 (Lyman and Konstantinovka) and have started preliminary bombardment of the other 2 (Kramatorsk and Sloviansk).

In the eyes of the Europeans this equals ‘the Russians have stalled’.

So self deluded and completely detached from reality are the European leaders it can only be an act, surely? But then what’s the point?

Reminder that following Zelensky’s open letter to Putin was Putin’s reply that he was not interested in any negotiations with either the Ukrainians or the US and said that the Russian army would be doing all the talking.

Incidentally, word is that Witkoff has made many appeals to travel to Russia over the past months and has been refused admission each time.

Anyway, we are now 100 days into the 96 hour war with Iran and something’s not right.

For the first time ever the US stood down and did not participate in defending Israel from the recent retaliation attack on Israel by Iran. That must be Trump’s retaliation to Netanyahu not heeding Trump’s warnings not to attack southern Beirut and then not to attack Iran afterwards.

Netanyahu has slipped in the betting polls from the mid 60’s down to the mid 30s as Israeli elections get ever closer. The pressure keeps increasing.

Russia Ukraine War: Wiping Out Ukraine's Deep Bunkers (ft Mark Sleboda)

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 10.06.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 10.06.26
personnel – about 1,377,510 (+1,190) persons
tanks – 12,004 (+3) units
armored combat vehicles / troop-carrying
AFVs – 24,717 (+7) units
artillery systems – 43,713 (+74) units
MLRS – 1,857 (+6) units
anti-aircraft systems – 1,414 (+3) units
aircraft – 436 (+0) units
helicopters – 353 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 1,619 (+5) units
UAV operational-tactical level – 340,531 (+2,204) units
cruise missiles – 4,733 (+0) units
warships – 33 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 105,172 (+376) units
special equipment – ​​4,267 (+4) units

The US is in the “final throes” of negotiating a peace deal with Iran according to Trump as he launches multiple waves of air strikes into Iranian ground stations near the Straits of Hormuz and fires missiles into the engine room of an empty oil tanker crewed by Indian seamen who were later saved by Omani naval helicopters.

The US retaliatory strikes were ordered after first reports said an Iranian Shahed drone (set target pre-launch, non-manoeuvrable and highly explosive) hit a US Apache helicopter (highly manoeuvrable but very fragile) in mid air, the helicopter then safely fell 2000 ft out of the sky leaving the 2 man crew uninjured and who were later rescued by a US unmanned sea drone.

This all sounds about as plausible as the US rescued pilot operation close to the Iranian nuclear material base who was never heard of or seen again.

It is possible there was an accidental collision with some kind of a surveillance drone causing structural damage forcing the US helicopter to make a controlled decent into the sea.

But if that was the case why the full force retaliation by the US?

Incidently the Iranians denied any such attack on the helicopter had happened.

It’s almost as if Trump was seeking an excuse to continue the hot conflict while also bleating about progressive peace negotiations (same as the Ukraine war).

Trump is increasingly reminding me of Boris Johnson who was always nothing but a showman, all smoke and mirrors, song and dance. Just a useful tool, but who was he actually working for.

Reminder that Iran still has escalation dominance. Trump even a couple of days ago sticks to the fiction that the US has destroyed most of the Iranian missiles and launches completely ignoring the proven fact that the US has not crippled any of the Iranian underground bases other than collapse the entrance portal to a few that took a day or 2 to reopen.

Iran on the other hand has a huge list of possible new targets throughout the gulf and beyond, US bases, Gulf oil infrastructure and desalination plants.

Shutting down Russian oil was an unachieved goal of the Ukraine war, that too would have led to a global recession, is that the actual goal?

The US debt to GDP ratio is running at 123% while the US dollar has lost over 90% of it’s value in the last 100 years.

A debt ratio over 77% is a serious drag on growth unless you have the world’s reserve currency, so it's a good reason to fight to continue to keep hold of that status going forward, even if it means dragging the entire rest of the world down in the process.

Hmm , I wonder what heading they will put at the top of the latest debt ratio high when it tops? (see chart below)



BREAKING: US Strikes IRAN Qeshm Island /Lt Col Daniel Davis

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 11.06.26 were approximately:
personnel – about 1,378,820 (+1,310) persons
tanks – 12,010 (+6) units
armored combat vehicles – 24,727 (+10) units
artillery systems – 43,787 (+74) units
MLRS – 1,859 (+2) units
anti-aircraft systems – 1,416 (+2) units
aircraft – 436 (+0) units
helicopters – 353 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 1,628 (+9) units
UAV operational–tactical level – 342,651 (+2,120) units
cruise missiles – 4,733 (+0) units
warships – 33 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 105,498 (+326) units
special equipment – ​​4,277 (+10) units

Listening to Trump these days is like listening to a toddler telling lies, you can wait patiently for them to finally tell the truth but it just never happens.

Trump tells us that the Iranians contacted him directly begging him to stop the US attacks. Trump says that for the sake of the poor Iranian people he will but added that if Iran attacks again he will ‘bomb the shit out of them’.

Trump diplomacy 101, hysterical threats on top of total bullshit.

The Iranians have never spoken directly to Trump ever and the Pakistanis meanwhile have declared they are out of the mediation game for good which just leaves Trump talking to the mirror again.

Also Trump, trying to sure up the original improbable story of the US Apache helicopter incident, now tells up that the Iranian drone hit the helicopter but didn’t go off. The drone “bomb” was lodged in the fuselage causing enough damage to bring it down without killing the crew.

Iranian drones travel at over 100 mph and are half the size of a helicopter, that impact alone would be enough to cause catastrophic damage to a helicopter, maybe it was actually a missile, who knows. Not Trump certainly.


Trump also tell us that ‘he’ got 100 million barrels of oil out of the gulf by aiding ships though the Straits while neglecting to mention how many are ones that Iran allowed through having paid the toll or were friends of Iran and travel with a toll exemption.

Who knows, Trump neglected to tell us the names of any of the ships ‘he’ got through.

The US has not fired on tankers heading to Japan or South Korea or even China so it’s currently a delicate balance of trying to keep oil supply stable but also keeping up appearances of a blockade.

Iran says that 300 ships have applied to the new Iran Straits authority though it is thought only 10 a day are actually transiting though no one, except the Iranians who are right there, knows how many go with their transponders turned off.


Robert Barnes: Shifting Goal Posts w/Iran War

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 12.06.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 12.06.26
personnel – about 1,380,120 (+1,300) persons
tanks – 12,014 (+4) units
armored combat vehicles / troop–carrying
AFVs – 24,728 (+1) units
artillery systems – 43,865 (+78) units
MLRS – 1,861 (+2) units
anti–aircraft systems – 1,417 (+1) units
aircraft – 436 (+0) units
helicopters – 353 (+0) units
ground robotic systems – 1,636 (+8) units
UAV operational–tactical level – 344,869 (+2,218) units
cruise missiles – 4,733 (+0) units
warships – 33 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 105,850 (+352) units
special equipment – ​​4,280 (+3) units

I apologise for writing today’s news 2 days ago but it's an easy mistake to make when following Trump. The Tuesday - Wednesday cycle quickly turned into a new Thursday – Friday cycle, hence it only looked like I was calling the news 48 hours in advance.

The Cycle
Stage 1. Trump declares he is talking with the Iranian leadership and are close to a deal.
(the NYT has counted 38 separate times Trump has said this, so about every second or third day.)
Stage 2. Trump gets Vance and the mediators to finalise the best deal available with the Iranians. Trump agrees to the deal in private.
Stage 3. Trump then speaks to the man in the mirror and realises nothing less than total Iranian surrender will do. He then threatens an attack if his original deal isn’t accepted by Iran immediately.
Stage 4. Order military to attack Iran, watch Iran return fire x 1.5.

Return to Stage 1.

So latest news again the US launched a wave of "self-defense" strikes targeting surveillance and radar systems in southern Iran. In response, Iran fired missiles at US military assets across the Middle East, with strikes reported in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. (stage 4)

And now again Trump says he’s just been in contact and the Iranians who are again begging him to stop so he’s magnanimously decided to grant mercy (stage 1).

The Iranians themselves are again wondering what the fuck he’s talking about, they should just ask the man in the mirror.

It was all very confusing to the Iranians who have never had any direct talks with the Americans at any stage whatsoever, now they realise it’s all just derangement.

Meanwhile headwinds for the US are coming, the US may be oil self-sufficient but the US imports nearly everything else and nearly everything uses oil in manufacturing and transportation and so inflation has already arrived in the US, slow, steadily, increasing and unstoppable.

When asked about the inflation problem recently Trump said he just ‘didn't care’. Lets see what he says come the midterm elections in November.
Trump doesn’t really care, same as the European leadership with the Ukraine war, they both are in total delusion that their adversaries are constantly on the verge of collapse and that total victory is certain.

They are so sure both Iran and Russia will capitulate any moment now, just need to keep stoking the fire and hold out just a little bit longer.

But war is like trading and hope is not a strategy, it’s actually a pathway to certain failure.

Iranian sources are now saying a MoU was agreed 2 weeks ago then Trump decided to add 2 new stipulations that were totally unacceptable to the Iranians and the US knew it so the Iranians didn’t even bother to reply.

Now they say Trump has just sent them a new deal (stage 2) that they haven’t received yet and it will take a few days for the message to travel to them and any reply be sent (remember the US is still trying to find and assassinate them while all this ‘diplomacy’ is continuing).

Meanwhile Trump has, same as usual, as soon as he’s sent off a draft proposal declared that Iran has accepted his demands and the deal is done and he has won … again.

Presumably this strategy works in NY real estate deals but hasn’t worked so far in global geopolitics for some strange reason.

Stage 3 and 4 over the weekend?



TRUMP SAYS "IRAN WAR OVER", IRAN "ACCEPTED" DEAL - w/ Brandon Weichert