wojtek wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 7:32 pm...

Couple of points of fact, in what is primarily an artillery war Ukraine needs more 155mm artillery shells than are produced in all of the western countries combined. To build factories to produce anything like enough would take at least 3 years to complete, no western country has even started to do this in spite of all the rhetoric.

Putin saw the writing on the wall in the winter of 2022 and started to increase production immediately.

Also, when the western world say ''the whole world supports Ukraine'' what they really mean is 'the golden billion' (the population of western countries). Most of the 'whole world' do not support Ukraine at all and don't send military aid unless blackmailed by the US to do so.

Russia even imported artillery ammunition from North Korea,
which turned out to be of very poor quality. However, now in fact,
the arms industry in Russia works in three shifts.

Support for Russia is roughly in those countries that sympathized with
the USSR against the US - this is a large part of Asia (including the Middle East),
Africa and South America...

wojtek wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 8:52 pm Russia even imported artillery ammunition from North Korea,
which turned out to be of very poor quality. However, now in fact,
the arms industry in Russia works in three shifts.

Support for Russia is roughly in those countries that sympathized with
the USSR against the US - this is a large part of Asia (including the Middle East),

Sorry but the USSR is long gone (even Putin said if any Russians miss it they have no brain) and that seems difficult for western politicians to come to terms with, the loss of the old enemy.

Sure Russia has imported some ammo from other countries but Ukraine is importing ALL there's from abroad.

''Asia, the middle east, Africa and South America'', yes the 'global south' (the other 7 billion outside of 'the golden billion') have watched the 'colour revolutions' (CIA orchestrated regime change) across the world for decades and are supporting Russia for standing against it.

Ukraine was never supposed to win this war, the objective was always to hurt Russia, hopefully to the point of Putin's overthrow (and a colour revolution). The US is not interested in fighting in Europe, they have other fish to fry.

Political sympathies sometimes last for centuries, this especially applies
to strong countries with a continuous foreign policy. E.g. Norman Davies argues
that Churchill's sympathy for Stalin was at least in part due to the historical
alliance of GB and Russia against Napoleon. In the current political sympathies,
it is also easy to see echoes of the Concert of Europe in the 19th century.

As for Putin's attitude towards the USSR, it must be complicated,
some links below. The most famous quote is from his speech from 2005:
the collapse of the USSR "was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century".

December 12, 2021:
MOSCOW, Dec 12 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin has lamented the collapse
of the Soviet Union three decades ago as the demise of what he called "historical Russia"
and said the economic crisis that followed was so bad he was forced to moonlight as a taxi driver.

Putin's comments, released by state TV on Sunday, are likely to further fuel speculation
about his foreign policy intentions among critics, who accuse him of planning to recreate
the Soviet Union and of contemplating an attack on Ukraine, a notion the Kremlin
has dismissed as fear-mongering.

"It was a disintegration of historical Russia under the name of the Soviet Union,"
Putin said of the 1991 breakup, in comments aired on Sunday as part of
a documentary film called "Russia. New History", the RIA state news agency reported.

"We turned into a completely different country. And what had been built up over 1,000 years
was largely lost," said Putin, saying 25 million Russian people in newly independent countries
suddenly found themselves cut off from Russia, part of what he called "a major humanitarian tragedy".

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna7632057
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 021-12-12/

wojtek wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:03 pm Political sympathies sometimes last for centuries, this especially applies

The collapse of the USSR was because of the inevitable failure of communism and Putin never regretted it. To correct my miss-quote earlier Putin actually said '''whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain''.

He did regret that many people of Russian ethnicity were left in the territories of the old USSR but the cost of those dependant territories were one of the causes of the collapse and so there was no going back.

He also saw that there was much harm caused by Gorbachev/Yeltsin not having a clear plan as what to do following the collapse and just assumed adopting western policies would work automatically.

Finally overcoming the chaos Russia has developed into an increasingly wealthy country that does not need dependant territories and the US was concerned might partner China (resources matched to manufacturing) and accelerate their loss of hegemony to China. By staging the conflict in Ukraine the US hoped to take on their perceived enemies one at a time.

Ogee wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:15 pm The collapse of the USSR was because of the inevitable failure of communism

That's definitely true.

Ogee wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 11:15 pm just assumed adopting western policies would work automatically.

A similar mistake was made by trying to forcefully adopt
the Western democratic system to some countries of the Middle East
and Asia (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.) with completely different traditions
and history. There were long discussions on this subject among
e.g. the American Neocons (George Weigel and others).

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour ·
The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 15.03.24 were approximately:
of personnel / personnel ‒ about 428420 (+580) persons / persons,
tanks ‒ 6758 (+1) units,
armored fighting vehicles / APV ‒ 12949 (+11) units,
artillery systems – 10,580 (+15) units,
RSZV / MLRS – 1017 (+0) units,
anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 717 (+0) units,
aircraft – 347 (+0) units,
helicopters – 325 (+0) units,
UAV operational-tactical level – 8254 (+34),
cruise missiles ‒ 1920 (+0),
ships / boats / warships / boats ‒ 26 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
vehicles and fuel tanks – 13,993 (+34) units,
special equipment / special equipment ‒ 1711 (+3)

Ogee wrote: Wed Mar 13, 2024 8:37 pm lil Napoleon Macron to make URGENT address to the nation, presumably to try to keep the killing in Ukraine going for a few more months by adding French troops to the slaughter and try to blackmail the US into coming to save them (they won't).

lil Napoleon ''we're not going to war but we are going to war if the Putin dares to cross my red lines'', so there - that clears everything up. Macron proves himself to be a complete moron same as Johnson, Sunak and Scholtz.

Reminder that Ukraine were never going to win this war because they couldn't. Ukraine could have adhered to the 3 agreements with Russia they signed where they kept all of Ukraine but were stopped from doing so by the west who's goal was to inflict as much damage on Russia as possible without starting a world war, and hope for regime change and the formation of a new US friendly govt in Russia. What happened to Ukraine didn't really matter to the west.

Reminder also that Russia does not have the capacity to roll into NATO countries and any military strategist knows it. They didn't have the capacity to take over the whole of Ukraine in 2022 but, on seeing the huge western influx of cash and equipment, spent 2 years building up the capacity. It would take at least another 3 years from now to build up additional capacity to move on NATO countries and that build up could not be hidden.

It's just not happening and Macron knows it.


Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
"There will be French troops in Ukraine. There will be no red lines. I am the president of France and I decide," — Macron

"We negotiated as best we could, but there is nothing to talk about with them. Ukraine must win," the French president added.

At the same time, Macron also said the following in his interview for France 2:

- France's defence industry is not ready for a high-intensity conflict.

- France is not at war with Russia, but the West must not let it win;

- Paris has no intention of taking the lead in escalating the conflict in Ukraine;

- The current conflict is existential for Europe and France;

- The Ukrainian counter-offensive did not go as planned;

- Peace is not Ukraine's capitulation;

- the use of loans to finance support for Kiev cannot be ruled out.


Col. Doug Macgregor: Macron Bluffing on the World's Stage with his Threats




Unprecedented Escalation Along The Border. The Russians Entered Semenivka. MS 2024.03.14

Leaked Doc: Ukraine Victory 'IMPOSSIBLE'.

Retired US diplomat - Nuland gone signals a shift in US policy, Ukraine war is over - we have reached 'the last Ukrainian'.


Leaked Military Doc: Ukraine Victory 'IMPOSSIBLE' As Putin Floats Negotiations




Nuland's Policy Has Collapsed as Ukraine Lost it.| Chas Freeman
(Ukraine first 30 minutes)

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine / General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
27 min. ·
The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 16.03.24 were approximately:
personnel ‒ about 429,580 (+1,160) persons
tanks ‒ 6779 (+21) units,
armored combat vehicles / APV ‒ 12973 (+24) units,
artillery systems – 10,606 (+26) units,
RSZV / MLRS – 1017 (+0) units,
anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 719 (+2) units,
aircraft – 347 (+0) units,
helicopters – 325 (+0) units,
UAV operational-tactical level – 8268 (+14),
cruise missiles ‒ 1922 (+2),
ships / boats / warships / boats ‒ 26 (+0) units,
submarines - 1 (+0) units,
vehicles and fuel tanks – 14,024 (+31) units,
special equipment / special equipment ‒ 1712 (+1)