Re: WW3 Countdown

2191
After the disaster of April 3rd which was the US's first attempt to attack Iran using aircraft actually flying in Iranian airspace, their air defences had been totally destroyed according to Trump, so April 4th was devoted to trying to rescue a downed airman.

During which the US lost more aircraft including 2 C-130 Hercules transporter (used to carry helicopters in that were to be left behind) that got bogged down landing in a remote strip and couldn't take off again.

The Iranians say they destroyed 2 C-130 (plus others), the US Central Command only admits to 1 so far and have been caught lying before. A 3rd transport must have been sent, God knows how much equipment the US was forced to leave behind altogether.

The result is that April 3rd was a disaster and April 4th was not much better.

And on April 5th the US seem to have abandoned the idea of flights over Iran all together and gone back to stand-off launched cruise missiles, the supply of which is running out.

Given the cost of rescuing 1 airman you have to wonder what would happen if they did actually land marines? Is Trump really prepared to face large losses?

And the further cost is Iran's constant pressure on US allies in the region highlighting that there is still nothing the US can do about it. Iran again attacked a Kuwaiti desalination plant.

The US is an existential threat to Iran and in return Iran is posing an existential threat to the US allies in the region. That's the stand off and there’s proving to be nothing Trump can do to mitigate it other than to stand down.

Just what is a narcissus to do? Stand down now and look weak or plunge the world into a decade long economic nightmare and destroy his reputation in the history books?



Hegseth meanwhile has sacked 8 Generals trying to find one who will send troops on a suicide landing given that the US don't actually control the skies over Iran after all.

Something the US navy were well aware of or they would have moved their ships closer. Trump and Hegseth now have the navy, army and the airforce refusing orders (just the suicidal ones).

Trump, having boasted of the US military being the greatest the world has ever seen is now going apoplectic with foul mouthed threats in complete frustration like a child in a temper tantrum. He is also still locked in the delusion that the Iranians want to talk.

The Iranians know there’s no point, this is the existential battle they had prepared for and if they don't get the US to climb down now they never will. They’re in the same position as Russia was, they have the US camped on their doorstep using a neighbour as cover/proxy as the US attempts to destroy them.

The US and Israel have to date hit 30 Iranian universities in their attempt to bomb them back into the stone age, and because they can't find Iran's missile launchers to hit. They’re running out of universities and so are turning on residential areas instead but that’s not going to provide the ‘win’ Trump needs.

Meanwhile the last tankers with the ‘cheap’ gas and oil have been and gone for Europe, it’s all uphill from now on, time to buckle up.

And Japan will have to pay the Iran toll for their shipments, they have no choice after the new Japanese PM told the Russians they were willing to buy Russian oil after all but would only pay the western imposed price cap of $45 a barrel. Putin didn’t even bother replying to her.



Special Forces RESCUE 2nd Pilot in INSANE Op!

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Re: WW3 Countdown

2192
;) General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 07.04.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 07.04.26
personnel – about 1,305,470 (+980) persons
tanks – 11,841 (+0) units
armored combat vehicles / troop-carrying
AFVs – 24,364 (+4) units
artillery systems – 39,562 (+65) units
MLRS – 1,722 (+3) units
anti-aircraft systems – 1,340 (+2) units
aircraft – 435 (+0) units
helicopters – 350 (+0) units
UAV operational-tactical level – 223 341 (+1 945) units
cruise missiles – 4 517 (+0) units
warships – 33 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 87 862 (+248) units
special equipment – ​​4 115 (+3) units
"Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal..."

Re: WW3 Countdown

2193
No new attempts by the US to fly over Iran.

Now we all await for the megalomaniac morons deadline for Iran to agree a ceasefire deal, that is also a bundled surrender plan, which is now Tuesday 20:00 US ET (BST 01:00 Wed).

This is where, presumably, the US fires off all the last of their missiles in their effort to carry out Trump's threat to destroy the whole country.

He might even mean nukes, who knows.

Iran still has escalation dominance, their nuke equivalent is to destroy the Gulf states desalination plants and Israeli nuclear reactors.

If Trump still has a functioning brain, which is debatable, then he'll find an excuse to call the whole thing off like he has done so many times in his dealings with Putin.

If Trump goes through with his threat the entire region will be decimated for decades at the least and there will be a humanitarian disaster on a biblical scale.

And still not a word from Congress, very interesting.

Remember these guys were baying for Trump's blood with impeachment proceedings left and right at this stage of his first term, and he hadn’t even done anything yet, this time round - nothing, not a peep.

The rest of the world have learnt some very interesting lessons, the US is a dying empire who in desperation have morphed from the good guys into the baddies.

The world has learnt that the US military is equipped with outdated, very expensive junk that can't stand up to the modern missile and drone threat.

They have learnt that to really hurt the US you just need a mass of missiles that can reach the US homeland.

Also, nuclear weapons are now absolutely essential for your own country's security no matter how small you are.

Trump has also revealed a US obsession with capturing the world's oil supply, it's the main reason the US has tried to surround Russia, it's the main reason to attack Venezuela, and Trump said yesterday he really wants Iran's oil.

Certainly a global oil monopoly, or at least partial as they lost against Russia, would be one way to halt the decline of the US.

Israel (population 10 million) meanwhile has been busy trying to capture as much of southern Lebanon as it can while the world is distracted, and quite bizarrely is still busy trying to assassinate top Iranian military personnel seemingly unaware that in a country of 90 million the Iranians are bound to have thousands of replacements.

Anyway, what are the odds?

Middle eastern Armageddon
Or
Trump delay excuse

Place your bets.



Polymarket say there is a 70% chance of a ceasefire by April 30th but Iran is in the same position as Russia, a ceasefire is definitely not in their interest.

Iran has the US in as good a vice grip as they’re ever going to have. To give the US 45 days to restock their ships and bases with whatever missiles they can find is exactly what Iran should not do.

WTI Oil currently has a $10 spread between different broker’s CFD prices, anywhere between $105 and $115 means serious confusion over near term events. Meanwhile oil trading insiders are saying that if you are looking to actually buy real oil on spot you need to cough up more like $140 a barrel already.

And finally, a word on the official explanation of the rescued pilot story, that he was seriously wounded and walked miles up and down mountains to coincidently end up somewhere closer to Iran's base storing nuclear material and was picked up by a huge team of US personnel traveling in a huge array of aircraft, most of which were destroyed on the mission.

The alternative view is that perhaps it was all really an operation to seize Iranian nuclear material that went disastrously wrong - but who knows?

Some say that perhaps it could have been 2 separate operations that bumped into each other - who knows?



IRAN WAR: Desperate Trump And Dangerous Quagmire w/ John Mearsheimer

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Re: WW3 Countdown

2194
Ogee wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2026 6:57 pm
WTI Oil currently has a $10 spread between different broker’s CFD prices, anywhere between $105 and $115 means serious confusion over near term events. Meanwhile oil trading insiders are saying that if you are looking to actually buy real oil on spot you need to cough up more like $140 a barrel already.
TEN DOLLAR SPREAD
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The best divergence indicator in the world.

Re: WW3 Countdown

2195
;) General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
3 hours
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 08.04.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 08.04.26
personnel – about 1,306,500 (+1,030) persons
tanks – 11,846 (+5) units
armored combat vehicles – 24,368 (+4) units
artillery systems – 39,625 (+63) units
MLRS – 1,723 (+1) units
air defense systems – 1,341 (+1) units
aircraft – 435 (+0) units
helicopters – 350 (+0) units
Operational–tactical UAVs – 225,301 (+1,960) units
Cruise missiles – 4,517 (+0) units
Ships – 33 (+0) units
Submarines – 2 (+0) units
Automotive and fuel tanks – 88,103 (+241) units
Special equipment – ​​4,117 (+2) units
"Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal..."

Re: WW3 Countdown

2196
Trump TACO, not that he really had any choice having painted himself into a corner, erected a cage and padlocked himself in.

Apparently Trump has already achieved all his war aims, fortunately.

According to Trump, Iran's regime HAS been changed no matter what everyone says.

According to Trump, Iran's nuclear material HAS been buried under a mountain no matter what everyone says.

And Iran's missiles? What missiles, we can’t find any missiles (which is true).

So Trump gains the Straits being reopened, which, err … they always were before Trump started the war in the first place.

Trump said Iran's 10 point plan is something they can work with without mentioning at all the US's own 15 point plan.

The main thing according to Trump is a long term peace deal with Iran and the reopening of the Straits.

Amazingly coincidentally, a long term peace deal was Iran's core demand too, and the main requirement to reopening the Straits.

Makes you wonder what all the fuss was about in the first place.


How much of Iran's 10 point plan Iran actually achieves remains to be seen during the 2 week ceasefire talks but they should achieve the right to provide protection for itself (missile production) and to continue with civil nuclear development as per international law, and importantly an end to sanctions.

Reparations and tolls were added after the war started and were always likely to be dropped. The Iranian demand that the US leave the Gulf was never going to happen because the Gulf states have a right to make their own security agreements. The problem of the US bases in the Gulf for Iran was they were being used for these repeated attacks, a proper peace treaty will solve that problem.

Most importantly this war looks like being resolved peacefully with a US climb down and with Iran getting its primary objective, the end to perpetual intermittent US and Israeli attacks.

Another important point is that in Iran's reply that was accepted by Trump was that the Iranian navy would be escorting any and all shipping through the Straits with no mention of the US navy at all.

The main loser is Israel who were banking on the US destroying a major competitor for them.

Dirty tricks during the 2 week ceasefire are highly likely.

Trump is a loser too and who knows what new plans the US neocons and Israel will dream up to halt the decline of empire.

There were worries that maybe the US wanted the whole middle east destroyed so they could move in and take over all the oil fields.

And the Iranians must be wondering if the US and Israel can stop themselves from assassinating the peace delegates as they have developed a habit of doing recently.



TRUMP ADMITS DEFEAT IN IRAN WAR!

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Re: WW3 Countdown

2198
So another deadline (2 weeks) but Trump has already blinked and the reality is that he can’t go back and he can’t go forward, he can only negotiate his way out from a position of weakness.

Trump has realised that he can’t force the Iranians to do anything because if he tried to it will take, as said before, 1.5 million troops and maybe 5 years, if ever, to take control of Iran. Or he could just nuke the entire country (the only way he could actually destroy the whole civilisation as he said he would), but that would probably close the Straits as well and Trump would not survive the national and international condemnation.



Professor Pape: IRAN WAR NOT OVER, Trump TRAPPED




Important view of global geopolitics now and moving forward (video below). All wars are banker’s wars, all markets are manipulated, Europe is re-Nazifying, relatively rich workers won’t go to war, they need to be made poor first. Putin remains a serious problem because a Russia not completely in debt (as is the rest of Europe) can’t be controlled by the banks.



TRUMP SPECTACULARLY IDIOTIC. EUROPE RE-NAZIFYING. IRAN OWNS HORMUZ. NEW WORLD HATCHING. ALEX KRAINER




Ukraine, and an interview with a Brit fighting on the Russian side and how drones control the pace of battle in modern warfare (video below).


Battlefield View of Ukraine Russia War, Live from Russia /Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Re: WW3 Countdown

2199
;) General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
2 hours
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 10.04.26 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 10.04.26
personnel – about 1,308,670 (+1,130) persons
tanks – 11,848 (+1) units
armored combat vehicles / troop-carrying
AFVs – 24,375 (+5) units
artillery systems – 39,734 (+45) units
MLRS – 1,724 (+0) units
anti-aircraft systems – 1,341 (+0) units
aircraft – 435 (+0) units
helicopters – 350 (+0) units
UAV operational-tactical level – 229,771 (+2,232) units
cruise missiles – 4,517 (+0) units
warships – 33 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
vehicles and fuel tanks – 88,515 (+183) units
special equipment – ​​4,119 (+0) units
"Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal..."

Re: WW3 Countdown

2200
Trump is stuck in quicksand as Israel goes full steam ahead in their efforts to collapse the ceasefire as soon as possible and get the US back into the game.

But Trump knows now there is no path to victory. The US navy failed as did the army and the airforce. Trump was fooled into this catastrophic mistake of a war by Mossad’s fake analysis and Netanyahu’s continuous badgering telling Trump it’ll all be over within 3 days.

The Israelis knew that was not going to happen but were confident that the US’s huge WW2 style military forces were more than enough to swamp Iran’s WW2 style military forces and they were right.

Where they were wrong was that for the last 2 decades Iran was building up its WW3 style military forces (missiles and drones) hidden away in hollowed out mountain missile and drone production and launch facilities, dozens of them.

How can this be? They’re all just religious fanatics after all. Well not really, Iran's universities have been turning out over 100,000 engineers a year.

And now Trump has lost control not only of the war he started but also his attack dog in the region has gone rogue.

Trump desperately needs to regain control of what he can and then negotiate his way out of what he can’t and he really needs to get the process going now not later.

There are whispers coming out of the US military that there is no intention of carrying out any order to use nukes just as the navy has no intention of moving closer to the Straits without proper air cover which currently the airforce is unable to provide.

But Trump hasn’t even started to try to clean up the mess he made. He’s sending V.P. Vance to negotiate but doesn't trust him so is also sending Israeli agents Witkoff and Kushner to hold Vance’s hand so that’s going to be a waste of time, and all the while Trump sinks deeper into the quicksand flailing about and busy sending 70 pannicked social media posts per week.

It should be noted that the ceasefire was to be the start of discussions on Iran’s 10 point plan and not that the 10 points had been already agreed to. There was supposed to be a total ceasefire (including Lebanon) and free passage through the Straits as being the only 2 commitments to get the process started but the first never happened and then neither did the second.

The fact that both Iran AND the mediators say there was an initial agreement so talks could start but Trump now says something else altogether is not a good sign.


Very interesting analysis from Joe Kent who recently resigned from Trump's intel team.


Iran War: Hubris, Miscalculation, and the Clash of Interests w/ Joe Kent





Trump Panics As World Notices He Lost Iran War




US Air Force Risked EVERYTHING… Just to save a Pilot?

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