Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

Analysis of margin levels for October 15, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4124.69-4175.69, TP1-4073.59, TP2-3914.59.

Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4410.00–4450.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.



Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4150.00-4170.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the minimum of 14.10.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4124.69.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4175.69.

Intraday targets: update minimums from 10/14/2026–4073.59.

Medium-term targets: test the lower boundary of GWCZ-3914.59.



Trading recommendations: sell from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4124.69-4175.69, Take Profit 1–4073.59, Take Profit 2–3914.59.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 16, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:



The euro is supported by declining US bond yields: dollar investments become less attractive. Amid concerns over artificial intelligence spending, investors are buying US debt, but the currency itself has not yet benefited from this. For EURUSD, this creates an opportunity to continue its recovery after the recent decline.

From the Eurozone side, today's final assessment of September inflation is important. Preliminary data showed price growth accelerating to 3.8% year-on-year, maintaining grounds for further ECB rate hikes. Confirmation of these figures will support euro interest rate expectations, although expensive energy simultaneously worsens the outlook for the European economy.

The main risk to pair growth is a return to dollar demand with more hawkish Fed signals. Strong US inflation leaves such an opportunity, while France's debt problems limit the attractiveness of the euro. As long as US yields are falling and immediate tightening does not receive new confirmation, the base scenario for the current session allows for moderate EURUSD growth.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1215, SL 1.1190, TP 1.1270

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AI debt hits #Oracle and indices

In posts from October 8 the vulnerability of the AI arms race was considered: building data centers requires huge investments, and high interest rates increase the cost of borrowing. At that time, FreshForex analysts expected increased pressure on #NQ100 and #SP500. The latest sell-off supported this scenario.

During the session on October 14, #Oracle lost about 9%, and the technology sector came under fire after US inflation statistics. At the time of preparing the material #Oracle is around $130.20, #NQ100 — 29,637.7 points, #SP500 — 7,702.5 points.

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Why pressure may persist

US inflation reached 3.7% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 3.6%. This intensified fears of a new Fed rate hike. For companies that finance AI infrastructure expansion through borrowing, such a turn means the risk of additional expenses even before investments begin to generate sufficient profit.

Projects with long payback periods are particularly sensitive to interest rates. Expenses for equipment and construction arise now, while revenue from new capacities comes later. If the cost of borrowing rises, companies have to allocate more funds to interest payments. This can limit free cash flow and reduce stock attractiveness.

Tension is also evident in the debt market. The cost of five-year credit default swap protection for #Oracle rose to a record 288 basis points. Creditors demand more for taking on risk, and equity investors more carefully assess the company's future cash flows. This increases pressure on businesses that need to continue large-scale investments.

#Dell also came under pressure

The sale also affected AI equipment manufacturers. As of October 14 #Dell lost 11.4%. An additional blow was the downgrade by Barclays: after a rapid rise in shares, analysts doubted that corporate spending on AI would provide sufficient business acceleration to justify high valuations.

Now #Dell is around $506.70. According to FreshForex analysts, after such a sharp drop, a rebound is possible, but a sustainable recovery is still in question. For now, quotes remain below $520, there remains a risk of testing $500 with further decline to $490.

The decline is not yet over

According to FreshForex analysts, pressure on #Oracle, #NQ100, and #SP500 will persist in the upcoming trading sessions. Expensive borrowing remains a problem for the AI sector, so rebounds after the sell-off currently look like a temporary respite.

The target indicated in the previous article 7,700–7,750 for #SP500 has been reached. Now a test of 7 650, and then — 7 600. For #NQ100, a return to 29 550 with a possible continuation of the decline to 29 400. For #Oracle, the nearest milestone is— $129,20: its breakout will pave the way to $120–123. For #Dell, maintaining quotes below $520 maintains the scenario of decline to $500, and then — $490.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for October 19, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:



The pound maintains support from expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate. In a survey published last week, 54 out of 63 economists forecasted a hike in November by a quarter of a percentage point, to 4%. This is an expectation, not an adopted decision. Nevertheless, it supports interest in the British currency until new data forces a revision of this scenario.

The British economy grew by 0.1% in August despite expectations of a contraction. The resilience of activity reduces concerns that an interest rate hike will immediately intensify a downturn. At the same time, declining yields on US bonds weaken the relative attractiveness of the dollar. Unlike the euro, the pound is currently not experiencing direct pressure from French political risk.

Part of the expectations has already been reflected in the recent strengthening of the pound, so the potential for further growth is limited. Budgetary uncertainty in the UK and a return of demand for the dollar could change the balance of factors. As long as US yields are falling and the prospect of British tightening remains, the fundamental basis for GBPUSD growth holds true.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3330, SL 1.3300, TP 1.3405

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Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 23 October 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4176.48, SL 4116.48, TP 4326.48



Falling oil prices support gold through rate expectations: reduced energy pressure lowers the risk of immediate Fed tightening. Simultaneously, buying US bonds reduces their yields, diminishing the interest advantage over metal. This combination this week creates conditions for a recovery in demand for XAUUSD.

Uncertainty surrounding energy supplies and transport security in the Middle East provides support. However, high US inflation leaves room for further rate hikes, even if the next meeting ends with a pause. A resumption of rising yields and dollar strength would weaken this scenario; as long as money costs do not intensify pressure, the weekly idea of gold growth remains valid.

Trading Idea: BUY 4176.48, SL 4116.48, TP 4326.48


#SP500: BUY 7722, SL 7642, TP 7882



For US stocks, corporate earnings will be the main test of the week. After the tech sector sell-off, investors need to see that company revenues can justify large AI-related expenses. Falling bond yields and oil prices ease financial conditions and business costs, providing support for #SP500 ahead of results publication.

Concerns about the debt load of AI companies persist: weak profit forecasts could outweigh the benefits of cheaper energy. Therefore, morning sentiment improvement does not yet confirm sustained growth for the whole week. The base scenario allows for index recovery with convincing earnings and a calm debt market; deteriorating company forecasts will be the main risk to this idea.

Trading Idea: BUY 7722, SL 7642, TP 7882


#BRENT: SELL 105.72, SL 109.22, TP 98.02



The oil market begins the week by revising supply expectations. Reports of easing US restrictions on Russian supplies have strengthened hopes for increased fuel availability. However, the conditions and timing remain uncertain: expecting additional volumes does not mean actual export growth. For #BRENT, this creates pressure through reduced deficit fears.

Improved Chinese data supports demand assessment, while shipping threats in the Middle East maintain disruption risks. These factors limit downside potential and make the scenario sensitive to news. If supply availability improves without new major disruptions, the weekly priority will remain on falling oil; intensified attacks on transport could change this conclusion.

Trading Idea: SELL 105.72, SL 109.22, TP 98.02

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