Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 14, 2026 EURUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index

EURUSD:

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The euro is supported by firmer expectations regarding ECB policy. A recent survey of economists shows that most expect another rate hike in September, as eurozone inflation remains above target and the economy grew more strongly than expected in the second quarter. This combination limits the case for a rapid shift toward a softer policy stance and supports the European currency.

At the same time, the US dollar has lost momentum following July producer price data, which showed no monthly increase despite market expectations for a rise. Combined with moderate consumer inflation, this reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September to around 35%. Lower rate expectations reduce the dollar’s interest rate advantage and create conditions for a recovery in EURUSD.

The main risk to this scenario comes from today’s US retail sales data. A strong reading could revive demand for the dollar and partly change market expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Until the release, however, the euro retains an advantage due to the combination of firmer ECB expectations and reduced expectations for a US rate hike. If this backdrop persists, the base-case scenario supports further gains in EURUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1535, SL 1.1510, TP 1.1590

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 17, 2026 GBPUSD​


GBPUSD:

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The pound enters Monday with support from the latest UK economic data. June GDP grew more strongly than expected, while previously released business activity indicators pointed to an improvement in the services sector. This reduces concerns about a sharp slowdown in the UK economy and allows the market to maintain a more resilient assessment of the British currency’s outlook.

At the same time, the US dollar lost some support after an unexpected decline in US retail sales and more moderate inflation readings. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September has fallen noticeably, while UK short-term interest rates remain elevated. For GBPUSD, this combination reduces pressure from the interest rate differential and supports demand for the pound.

The main constraint is the approach of important UK inflation and labor market data, which could change expectations for Bank of England policy. The upside potential therefore does not appear one-sided. Nevertheless, there is currently no strong local factor weighing on the pound, while the softer US dollar impulse coincides with resilience in the UK economy. If these conditions persist, the bias remains toward a moderate rise in GBPUSD.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3540, SL 1.3505, TP 1.3620

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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 21 August 2026

XAUUSD: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50

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Gold starts the week supported by a weaker US dollar and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Softer US inflation and retail sales data are easing monetary policy pressure, while tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for defensive assets.

At the same time, XAUUSD has already posted a significant advance, increasing the risk of profit-taking. However, central bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. As long as Federal Reserve expectations remain softer, the base-case scenario allows for a moderate continuation of gold’s advance.

Trading idea: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50


#SP500: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930
#SP500 enters the week near record levels, with the reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September remaining the main positive factor. A strong earnings season also provides support, as most companies in the index have exceeded profit expectations, helping to sustain investor interest in equities.

Risks are linked to elevated US Treasury yields and high oil prices, which could intensify inflation concerns. This week, the market will also assess the Federal Reserve minutes and earnings reports from major retailers. As long as the corporate backdrop remains resilient and interest rate expectations stay softer, the base-case scenario supports further gains in #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930


#BRENT: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60
Brent starts the week after a strong advance, with the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Shipping activity in the region has declined noticeably, while the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations is preserving the geopolitical premium and limiting the scope for a sustained decline in oil prices.

The upside is constrained by expectations of higher global supply and the possibility of shipping flows normalizing. However, over the current weekly horizon, the immediate risk to supply still outweighs medium-term pressure. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz does not improve materially, the fundamental backdrop should continue to support Brent.

Trading idea: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60

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Analysis of margin levels for August 18, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 29695.0-29972.5, TP1-30250.0, TP2-30995.2.

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Long-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of volume in the current contract is located within the 29600.0–29850.0 range. At present, trading activity in #NQ100 is taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.



Medium-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of medium-term volume is located within the 29572.0–29708.0 range. At present, trading activity in #NQ100 is taking place above this range, indicating buyer strength.

From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the high of 17.08.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 29972.5.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 29695.0.

Intraday targets: a retest of the highs from 17.08.2026 at 30250.0.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 30995.2.



Investment recommendations: consider buying from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 29695.0-29972.5, Take Profit 1-30250.0, Take Profit 2-30995.2.

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AI Has Arrived in MetaTrader 5: Trading Is Changing!

MetaTrader 5 has received one of its biggest feature updates in recent years. The platform now integrates a full-fledged AI Assistant with support for the Model Context Protocol (MCP), allowing it to work directly with market data, the trading terminal, and MetaEditor. A subsequent update expanded the AI’s capabilities, enabling it to interact with chart indicators as well.

Unlike a regular chatbot, the new assistant can independently break a task down into a sequence of actions and use MetaTrader 5 tools to complete it. According to MetaQuotes, in just three weeks after its launch, users processed more than 1 trillion tokens through the free MQL5 Lite model, highlighting strong interest in the new feature among traders and developers.



What can AI now do in MetaTrader 5?
Analyze the market. AI Assistant has access to quotes and charts and can assess the current market situation for an instrument, analyze price history, open positions, and completed trades. The assistant can identify risky positions and generate analytical reports.
Work with charts. Following the Build 6090 update, AI gained the ability to add indicators directly to charts, as well as access a list of available indicators and their parameters. This makes it possible to use natural language for more advanced technical analysis.
Create trading robots. In MetaEditor, the assistant can write an MQL5 program based on a text description, identify errors in existing code, make changes, compile the program, and check the result. In other words, AI can now assist not only with individual code fragments but also with entire projects.
Connect external AI systems. Thanks to MCP, MetaTrader 5 can connect compatible solutions, including OpenAI Codex and Claude Code. Users can also use their own API keys for OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, DeepSeek, Ollama, and other providers.
The developers have paid particular attention to controlling trading operations. Users can completely prohibit AI from executing such actions, allow them, or require mandatory manual confirmation. This means the final decision on a trade remains with the trader.

How to use the new functionality:

Use the desktop version of MT5 Build 6090 on Windows 10/11.
Go to Help → About and check the build number. You need at least Build 6060, while Build 6090 or newer is recommended. The assistant is disabled on Windows 7.
Log in to your MQL5.community account via Tools → Options → Community. This is a separate account and is not the same as your trading account login.
Go to Tools → Options → AI Assistant.
For market analysis, simply open AI Assistant in the terminal and enter a request in natural language, for example: “Analyze EURUSD on H1, identify the trend and the nearest support and resistance levels.” The assistant can also analyze open positions, trade history, and instruments available in Market Watch.

Use the new MetaTrader 5 capabilities in your trading! The updated platform offers a more advanced set of tools for market analysis, algorithmic trading, and working with AI.

Open a new MT5 account

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 19, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

21:00 EET. USD – Release of Fed meeting minutes

USDJPY:
The yen is receiving more sustainable fundamental support from Japan’s government bond market. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has approached 3%, while market participants have strengthened expectations of another Bank of Japan rate increase. This shift is gradually reducing the appeal of interest-rate differential trades and making further yen weakness less one-sided.

At the same time, the US side of the pair is losing some of its previous advantage. US Treasury yields have declined from recent highs, while weaker employment data and more moderate inflation have led the market to scale back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase. This reduces support for the dollar specifically against the yen, which is particularly sensitive to changes in the relative yield dynamics of the two countries.

For USDJPY, the base case points to further downside. The risk of renewed action by Japanese authorities remains an additional constraint on the pair’s upside following the recent coordinated intervention, but it is not the main argument. The key factor is the shift in interest rate and yield expectations. If the Federal Reserve minutes fail to restore demand for the dollar and expectations for the Bank of Japan remain intact, the balance may gradually shift further in favor of the yen.

Trading idea: SELL 159.40, SL 159.75, TP 158.55

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for August 20, 2026 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 70000, SL 67500, TP 75000.



Bitcoin has finally produced the strong directional move that had been anticipated for quite some time. The price surged higher, exactly as expected. This move is most likely driven by the beginning of Wave 3 of (iii).

The upside potential is far from exhausted. In the near term, the price is likely to continue its strong advance toward the previously established target. However, 75,000 may not be the ultimate limit. If buyers gain further momentum, Bitcoin could potentially accelerate beyond 80,000, making the current setup particularly attractive for long positions.

Therefore, previously opened long positions should continue to be held. Additional positions in the same direction may also be considered.

Investment idea: BUY 70000, SL 67500, TP 75000.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 21, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:



The euro enters the European session supported by a noticeable weakening of the US dollar. The US currency remains under pressure amid market doubts about the effectiveness of US Treasury measures aimed at stabilizing the bond market and concerns over the budget deficit. Against this backdrop, EURUSD is holding near multi-month highs, while the dollar’s previous advantage has weakened considerably.

The fundamental picture for the euro remains mixed but does not contradict the bullish scenario for the pair. German producer prices rose by 3.0% year on year in July, increasing inflation risks, while the market continues to price in the possibility of another ECB rate hike. At the same time, the Bundesbank has warned about Germany’s weak recovery, which limits the euro’s domestic support.

For the current session, the key factor remains investor sentiment toward dollar-denominated assets. As long as higher US Treasury yields fail to restore sustained demand for the dollar and concerns about the US debt burden persist, EURUSD retains room to strengthen. After the rise already seen this week, the remaining potential appears moderate, but the base case still allows for further upside.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1690, SL 1.1660, TP 1.1765

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The U.S. already owes $40 trillion: Central Banks are increasingly turning to gold

U.S. government debt has exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, once again raising investor concerns about the sustainability of American public finances. At the same time, yields on long-term U.S. government bonds recently climbed to levels near their highest in almost 20 years, while the U.S. Treasury had to increase its buyback operations to support market liquidity.

Against this backdrop, gold (XAUUSD) received a new boost. On August 19, XAUUSD rose by more than 4%, while on August 20 the price climbed as high as $4,527 per ounce — its highest level since early June.
Why gold is attracting more institutional capital again:

• Foreign demand for U.S. government debt is declining. In June, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. government bonds fell from $9.371 trillion to $9.299 trillion. China reduced its holdings by as much as 4% to $633.4 billion, the lowest level since September 2008. Japan and the United Kingdom also reduced their positions.
• Private investors are becoming more cautious as well. Net purchases of U.S. government bonds by the foreign private sector over the past 12 months have fallen by more than 40%. This does not mean a mass rejection of the U.S. dollar, but it does indicate that attracting funds to finance America's growing debt is becoming more difficult.
• China is accelerating its gold accumulation. In July, the People's Bank of China increased its reserves by 20 tons — the largest monthly increase in almost three years. As a result, the country's official gold reserves reached a record 2,377.5 tons.
• China is not the only buyer. In the second quarter, central banks around the world purchased around 289 tons of gold — a record figure for the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the largest buyers included Poland, Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan.

The reason for this diversification is becoming increasingly clear. Government bonds and currency reserves depend on the financial system of the issuing country and, amid geopolitical conflicts, can become instruments of sanctions or economic pressure. Physical gold is not another country's debt obligation, which is why it remains a way for central banks to reduce currency, credit, and political risks.

This trend is likely to continue. According to a World Gold Council survey, 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase further, while a record 45% plan to increase their own holdings. At the same time, 74% of respondents believe the dollar's share of international reserves will decline over the next five years.

According to FreshForex analysts, the key factor for XAUUSD right now is not so much short-term price dynamics as the changing structure of global reserves. Reduced holdings of U.S. government debt by some major holders, combined with sustained gold purchases by central banks, show that the metal is increasingly being viewed as a long-term diversification instrument.

Diversify your risks

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 24, 2026 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

The UK economy continues to show signs of resilience despite mixed data in recent days. The preliminary services PMI rose to a six-month high of 52.8 in August, while consumer confidence reached a two-year high. This reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic demand and provides support for the pound.

UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, remaining above the Bank of England’s target. At the July meeting, three of the nine committee members had already voted for a rate increase, while the market continues to price in the possibility of tighter policy before the end of the year. A 0.5% decline in retail sales and an unexpected budget deficit are limiting factors for sterling, but they do not yet change the broader picture.

The external environment is also important for GBPUSD: the US dollar remains under pressure amid concerns over US debt policy and the expansion of long-term bond buybacks by the Treasury. Strong activity in the US services sector limits the scale of dollar weakness but does not change the main impulse of the current session. As long as UK data remain resilient, the growth scenario for GBPUSD retains the advantage.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3650, SL 1.3610, TP 1.3740

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