Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 5, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD – ADP Employment Change

17:00 EET. USD – ISM Services PMI

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fresh fundamental support following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June meeting. The document showed that policymakers were paying increased attention to inflation risks and considering the possibility of further rate increases. Additional support came from data showing that real wages rose by 1.6% in June, marking a sixth consecutive monthly increase and strengthening the case for monetary policy normalization.

Pressure on USDJPY is also being reinforced by the recent joint intervention by the United States and Japan in support of the yen. Officials indicated that they were prepared to act again, while the US side publicly backed Tokyo’s efforts. At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a reduced probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase are diminishing the appeal of interest rate differential trades.

Slower growth in Japan’s services sector remains a limiting factor, meaning that sustained yen appreciation is not guaranteed. Strong US ADP or ISM data could also restore demand for the dollar. Nevertheless, the combination of a weaker dollar impulse, expectations of further Bank of Japan action, and the risk of renewed official measures makes a decline in USDJPY the more resilient base-case scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 157.50, SL 158.15, TP 155.90

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Analysis of margin levels for August 6, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: BUY 29364.4-29673.9, TP1-29951.3, TP2-30963.1.

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Long-term trend: bearish. The highest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29700.0 range. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.



Medium-term trend: bullish. The highest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 27660.0–27760.0 and 29710.0–29810.0 ranges. Investment activity in #NQ100 is currently taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.

From the perspective of margin requirements, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones constructed from the high of 05.08.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 29673.9.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 29364.4.

Intraday target: a retest of the 05.08.2026 high at 29951.3.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 30963.1.



Investment recommendation: buy from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 29364.4-29673.9, Take Profit 1-29951.3, Take Profit 2-30963.1.

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XAUUSD Surges in One Day: Gold Shocks the Market Again!


Gold delivered one of its strongest moves in recent months. During the August 5 trading session, XAUUSD gained about 4.4% and climbed above $4,250 per ounce — reaching its highest level in roughly seven weeks. The rally was especially notable after several months of decline. As recently as August 3, gold was trading near $4,030, meaning its value increased by more than 5% in just a few sessions!

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Factors behind XAUUSD growth:

• Weaker dollar. The decline of the U.S. currency made gold cheaper for buyers from other countries and supported demand. At the same time, falling government bond yields reduced the advantage of interest-bearing assets over gold, which does not generate income on its own.
• Weak U.S. data. The private sector created fewer jobs than expected. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in September dropped from around 67% to 55%, providing an additional reason to buy gold.
• Falling oil prices. Talks between Iran and Oman increased hopes for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil prices could ease inflationary pressure and reduce the need for further interest rate hikes.
• Return of buyers. Holding the key psychological level of $4,000 attracted traders expecting a rebound after a prolonged correction. Accelerating growth forced the closure of short positions, further strengthening the upward momentum.

Despite the sharp jump, gold is still trading well below its January all-time high. Therefore, the current move could mark either the beginning of a new recovery phase or a short-term reaction to shifting expectations regarding Fed policy.

According to FreshForex analysts, a move above $4,300 will confirm buyer strength and open the way for further growth, making current levels potentially attractive for buying gold. A drop back below $4,100 would weaken this scenario and indicate fading upward momentum.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 7, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

EURUSD:

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The euro begins the session against a mixed domestic backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while the core rate rose to 2.5%, maintaining expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Second-quarter economic growth was more resilient than forecast. However, the unexpected decline in Italian industrial production shows that the recovery remains uneven and is not providing the euro with an independent source of strength against the dollar.

The main driver of the day is the US labor market report. The market expects employment growth to accelerate following the weak June result, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range in July and continues to emphasize that future decisions will depend on incoming data. Ahead of the release, this supports cautious demand for the dollar amid persistent inflationary pressure.

The euro is receiving support from expectations surrounding the ECB, but this factor has already been largely priced in and is constrained by the uneven economic picture across the region. Unless US employment data comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD, while a weak US report remains the main risk to the selling idea.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1525, SL 1.1555, TP 1.1455

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 10, 2026 GBPUSD

GBPUSD:

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The pound begins the new session with moderate support from fresh UK labor market data. The REC/KPMG survey showed signs of stabilization in hiring in July and faster growth in starting salaries. This reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic conditions and keeps the Bank of England focused on price pressures, but it does not yet provide GBPUSD with a strong independent bullish driver.

Following weak US employment data, the dollar lost some of its advantage, although demand for the US currency is recovering moderately at the start of Monday’s session. US Treasury yields are edging higher, while the market is reluctant to extend Friday’s repricing of Federal Reserve expectations ahead of the July inflation report. For the pound, this creates renewed pressure despite more resilient signals from the UK labor market.

The Bank of England is keeping its policy rate at 3.75%, so the pound’s next move will depend on whether upcoming data confirm economic resilience and persistent inflationary pressure. For now, the fresh UK factor only limits downside pressure and does not outweigh the current US dollar impulse. Under the baseline scenario, the bias remains toward a moderate decline in GBPUSD during the session.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3485, SL 1.3520, TP 1.3400

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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 14 August 2026​


XAUUSD: BUY 4330.00, SL 4300.00, TP 4397.50​

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Gold starts the week following a strong rally, as a weaker US employment report reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike and supported lower US Treasury yields. The main test will be the July US inflation data. Moderate figures could sustain demand for gold, while stronger price pressures may renew pressure through interest rate expectations and the US dollar.

XAUUSD has already gained more than 7% over the previous week, so further upside requires fresh confirmation. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Persian Gulf continues to support demand for defensive assets, while the current reassessment of Federal Reserve policy keeps the baseline buying scenario intact.

Trading idea: BUY 4330.00, SL 4300.00, TP 4397.50



#SP500: BUY 7785, SL 7745, TP 7885​


#SP500 starts the week after a new record close, supported by lower expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and strong corporate results. The earnings season is nearing its end, while profit growth remains solid, helping sustain demand for equities following gains in recent sessions.

The key risk will be US inflation. A strong reading could push US Treasury yields higher and increase the cost of capital. If the inflation data do not reinforce concerns about higher rates, the combination of resilient earnings and softer Federal Reserve expectations should keep the upward scenario for the index in place.

Trading idea: BUY 7785, SL 7745, TP 7885


#BRENT: BUY 84.40, SL 82.40, TP 88.80​


Brent starts the week recovering amid uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic remains restricted and the terms for fully reopening the route have yet to be agreed. This factor supports the risk premium and keeps the threat of supply disruptions relevant for the oil market.

Supply remains a limiting factor: OPEC+ agreed to increase production quotas for September, while the latest EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories. However, until there is confirmed progress on shipping, disruption risks remain the main short-term driver, keeping the baseline buying scenario in place.

Trading idea: BUY 84.40, SL 82.40, TP 88.80

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for August 11, 2026 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 65450, SL 63500, TP 75000

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Bitcoin is starting to come back to life. The price made a sharp move lower. As previously discussed, before resuming the broader uptrend, the market could attempt a manipulation move in the opposite direction. This may be exactly what we are seeing now.

The decline can therefore be interpreted as a false breakout. If so, buyers may become active in the near future and quickly push the price back toward the levels from which the decline began.

The uptrend should then resume and develop into an impulsive structure, as Wave 3 is expected to unfold.

For this reason, long positions may be considered once the price breaks above the nearest local high formed before the recent decline.

Investment idea: BUY 65450, SL 63500, TP 75000.

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Brent Targets $90 Again as Hormuz Deal Falters

Brent crude oil continues to recover after its recent decline. On August 11, prices rose to $88.90 per barrel, with the benchmark gaining around 5% over the past two days. The main driver was the deteriorating outlook for a potential U.S.-Iran agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.

At the beginning of August, oil prices were falling amid expectations of a possible deal and a gradual restoration of shipping through the strait. The situation has now changed: renewed disagreements between the two sides have increased the risk of a prolonged standoff and further supply disruptions.

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Factors Supporting Brent:

• 1. Negotiations have reached an impasse. New U.S. demands on Iran have reduced the chances of a quick agreement. The market is once again pricing in the risk that full tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will not be restored soon.
• 2. Shipments through Hormuz remain limited. Only six vessels passed through the strait on Monday, compared with an average of around eleven over the previous ten days. Oil exports through the route fell to approximately 3 million barrels per day, down from 4.4 million barrels a week earlier.
• 3. Risks are also rising in the Red Sea. Houthi attacks continue to threaten alternative routes through Bab el-Mandeb. Disruptions on two major shipping routes simultaneously increase transportation costs and raise concerns about the stability of global oil supplies.

For the oil market, the $90 level has become an important psychological threshold. A sustained break above it could strengthen expectations of further gains, particularly if negotiations fail to resume or new supply disruptions emerge.

At the same time, higher oil prices pose risks beyond the commodity market. Rising energy costs could once again increase inflationary pressure and influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy.

According to FreshForex analysts, the current base-case scenario for Brent remains bullish. As long as negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz show no progress and supply disruption risks persist, oil prices are likely to remain supported. If geopolitical tensions continue, Brent could move higher and establish itself above $90 per barrel.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 12, 2026 USDJPY

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

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The yen has weakened again after much of the impact from the recent coordinated actions by Japan and the United States in the foreign exchange market faded. At the same time, market participants have become more willing to price in the possibility of an earlier Bank of Japan rate hike, which has supported short-term Japanese government bond yields. This factor limits pressure on the yen but has not yet changed the broader backdrop.

For USDJPY, the difference in interest rate expectations between the two countries remains important. US Treasury yields remain elevated, while the market is not ruling out a Federal Reserve rate hike in September ahead of the US inflation release. Until the Bank of Japan signals a faster tightening cycle, the yield advantage remains with the dollar and continues to support the pair.

The main constraint on further gains is the risk of another response from the Japanese authorities following the recent large-scale support for the yen. A softer US Consumer Price Index could also quickly push yields lower and renew pressure on the dollar. The upside scenario for USDJPY therefore requires caution, but ahead of the data, the current combination of interest rate expectations and yen weakness still gives a moderate advantage to the BUY scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 159.30, SL 159.00, TP 159.90

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Analysis of margin levels for August 13, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: BUY 4339.15-4394.25, TP1-4449.35, TP2-4658.05.

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Long-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of volume in the current contract is located within the 4290.00–4330.00 range. At present, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place above this range, indicating buyer strength.



Medium-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of medium-term volume is located within the 4310.00-4335.00 and 4395.00-4420.00 ranges. At present, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place above these ranges, indicating buyer strength.

From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the high of 13.08.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4394.25.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4339.15.

Intraday targets: a renewal of the highs from 13.08.2026 at 4449.35.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4658.05.



Trading recommendation: consider buying from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 4339.15–4394.25, Take Profit 1–4449.35, Take Profit 2–4658.05.

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