Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

Market Fundamental Analysis for July 17, 2026 USDJPY

USDJPY:

The yen remains near multi-year lows as the interest rate differential continues to encourage positions favoring the dollar. The Bank of Japan must take risks to economic growth and the government bond market into account, limiting expectations of rapid policy tightening. High costs for imported energy are placing additional pressure on the Japanese currency.

On the US side, USD/JPY is supported by resilient employment data and a recovery in US Treasury yields following their recent decline. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions are increasing demand for the dollar, which combines defensive qualities with higher yields. Softer US inflation has reduced the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, but the yield differential remains wide.

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The main constraint on further gains in the pair is the risk of action by the Japanese authorities. The Ministry of Finance has again stated that it is prepared to respond to excessive currency movements, while previous interventions show that a sharp rise in the dollar may trigger countermeasures. However, without confirmed action, this risk does not outweigh the interest rate factor, and the baseline scenario allows for a cautious rise in USD/JPY.

Trading idea: BUY 162.40, SL 162.10, TP 163.00

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 20, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:



The euro begins the session amid a more cautious attitude toward European assets. The sharp rise in oil prices has renewed concerns about imported inflation while also increasing risks to eurozone economic growth. The upcoming ECB decision continues to support expectations of tighter monetary policy, but weak business activity limits the single currency’s ability to benefit from this factor on a sustained basis.

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The main driver for the US dollar remains demand for defensive liquidity amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Higher US Treasury yields provide additional support to the currency. The market is considering the possibility that renewed energy-driven inflation could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer, despite the recent slowdown in US inflation.

As a result, the euro’s support from ECB expectations is currently outweighed by the stronger US dollar driver during this session. Higher energy costs are particularly sensitive for the eurozone, as they could weaken consumption prospects while maintaining price pressure. If geopolitical tensions and demand for the US dollar persist, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in EURUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1440, SL 1.1470, TP 1.1370

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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 24 July 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50
Gold begins the week near $4,015 per ounce, remaining under pressure as rising oil prices lead markets to reassess Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Higher energy costs are increasing inflation risks, supporting US Treasury yields, and raising the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Geopolitical tensions continue to sustain demand for defensive assets, but this has not yet offset the impact of the US dollar and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. If the oil price shock continues to support US yields, the fundamental scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50


#SP500: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380
The #SP500 enters the week following a decline in the technology sector, while higher oil prices are reviving concerns about inflation and borrowing costs. Rising US Treasury yields could place additional pressure on company valuations, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to financing costs.

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Major corporate earnings could support the index if results confirm strong profit expectations. However, high market concentration and the correction in semiconductor stocks increase the risk of disappointment. If oil prices and US yields remain elevated, the baseline scenario continues to point lower.

Trading idea: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380


#BRENT: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30
Brent begins the week above $90 per barrel following a sharp increase in risks to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and tensions surrounding Iranian ports are increasing the likelihood of disruptions, keeping the geopolitical risk premium as the market’s main driver.

The advance has already been substantial, increasing the risk of a correction if there are signs of de-escalation or a normalization of shipping activity. Nevertheless, restricted transit capacity and low inventories continue to provide fundamental support for oil. Until supply risks ease, the priority remains a cautious upside scenario for #BRENT.

Trading idea: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30

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Analysis of margin levels for July 21, 2026 #NQ100

#NQ100: SELL 28510.3-28787.8, TP1-28232.8, TP2-27126.3.

Long-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29600.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, indicating strong selling pressure.



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Medium-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 29460.0–29560.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, confirming the strength of sellers.

From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the low of July 17, 2026.

The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 28510.3.

The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is at 28787.8.

Intraday target: a move below the July 17, 2026 low at 28232.8.

Medium-term target: a test of the upper boundary of the GWCZ at 27126.3.



Investment recommendation: consider selling from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern has formed.

Sell: 28510.3-28787.8, Take Profit 1-28232.8, Take Profit 2-27126.3.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for July 22, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

09:00 EET. GBP – Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:
The pound enters the session near 1.3385 after several days of losses. Investors are assessing the first decisions of the new UK government and the possible methods of financing additional expenditure. Its commitment to maintaining existing fiscal rules has partly eased concerns, but the risk of higher borrowing and future tax increases continues to limit demand for the British currency.

Recent data showed that the labor market is stabilizing at weak levels. Wage growth and unemployment were largely unchanged, while payroll figures failed to indicate a convincing recovery. This backdrop does not provide the Bank of England with sufficient grounds to adopt a significantly tighter policy stance. It also puts the pound at a disadvantage against the dollar, which is supported by higher US Treasury yields and demand linked to geopolitical uncertainty.

The external dollar impulse remains stronger than the pound’s local support factors. Even the attractive yields offered by UK assets do not fully offset fiscal uncertainty and weak employment dynamics. If oil prices and US Treasury yields remain elevated, the downside scenario continues to take priority for GBP/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3385, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300

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Oil, the Yen, and #NQ100: Three Signals of Rising Volatility


Financial markets have received several fresh catalysts for increased volatility. #Brent crude has climbed close to multi-week highs, the Japanese yen has weakened to levels not seen in decades, and the U.S. technology sector is preparing for earnings releases from its largest companies.

Although these markets are driven by different factors, they share one common theme: shifting expectations for inflation, interest rates, and demand for risk assets.

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#Brent: Supply Risks Remain in Focus

Brent crude has climbed toward $95 per barrel as tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel supply concerns. Additional pressure comes from threats to shipping routes in the Red Sea and reduced maritime activity around the Strait of Hormuz.

Any further disruptions could increase both shipping costs and delivery times for crude oil. If geopolitical tensions escalate, Brent could move closer to the $100 mark. On the other hand, easing tensions would likely reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently supporting prices.

USDJPY: Intervention Risk Is Growing

USDJPY has traded above 163, reaching its highest level in roughly four decades. Japanese authorities have once again signaled their readiness to act against excessive weakness in the national currency.

The yen continues to face pressure from the wide interest rate gap between the United States and Japan. Higher oil prices add to the challenge, as a weaker yen makes imported energy more expensive and reinforces inflationary pressures.

The probability of a currency intervention is increasing, meaning USDJPY could experience sharp price swings. However, without a change in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy, any intervention may have only a temporary impact.

#NQ100: A Key Test for the Technology Sector

The #NQ100 index is entering a crucial period as major technology companies prepare to report quarterly earnings. Investors will be watching profit figures, artificial intelligence spending, and forward guidance particularly closely.

Strong earnings could revive demand for technology stocks. Conversely, disappointing results or rising AI-related spending without corresponding profit growth could trigger another wave of selling.

Another important risk factor is rising U.S. Treasury yields. Elevated oil prices continue to support inflation expectations, potentially delaying Federal Reserve policy easing—a scenario that typically weighs on growth stocks.

What Comes Next?

#Brent, USDJPY, and #NQ100 are all trading near important technical and fundamental levels. Their next major moves will largely depend on developments in global oil supply, potential action by Japanese authorities, and earnings results from leading technology companies.

According to FreshForex analysts, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, elevated interest rates, and corporate earnings season is likely to keep volatility high across commodity, currency, and equity markets. Stay ahead of the market with FreshForex—and make the most of every opportunity.

Profit from market moves


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Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 23, 2026 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: BUY 66850, SL 65400, TP 74000



The overall wave structure for Bitcoin remains unchanged. During the previous trading session, buyers attempted to continue their slow but steady advance. However, they were unable to maintain the upward momentum.

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The rally stalled and was followed by a modest pullback. For now, the market remains in consolidation, but Bitcoin is expected to resume its advance in the near term, as the broader technical picture continues to favor the bulls.

The outlook still calls for further upside as Wave 3 of the developing bullish impulse unfolds. Therefore, long positions continue to offer the most attractive trading opportunity.

Investment idea: BUY 66850, SL 65400, TP 74000.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 24, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:



USDJPY is holding near 163.80 after the yen weakened to an almost 40-year low, although the fundamental case for further gains has become less one-sided. Japan’s finance minister stated that the authorities were prepared to take decisive action in the foreign exchange market, while the US Treasury highlighted the undesirability of excessive volatility and the need for further steps from the Bank of Japan.

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Support for the dollar remains substantial. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is above 4.7%, Federal Reserve expectations have become more restrictive, and oil prices above $100 are increasing inflation and import-related risks for Japan. The interest rate differential continues to weigh on the yen, meaning that verbal warnings alone may not be enough to produce a sustained recovery.

However, the current session is marked by a fresh official signal and the exchange rate’s proximity to levels at which the likelihood of practical action by the Japanese authorities rises considerably. The dollar’s additional upside is limited by the risk of a sharp reduction in interest rate differential trades, while any response to intervention could be swift. The local Japanese factor may therefore outweigh the broader dollar impulse, and the baseline scenario allows for a decline in USDJPY.

Trading idea: SELL 163.80, SL 164.15, TP 162.95

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 27, 2026 EURUSD​

EURUSD:



EUR/USD begins the session recovering from last week’s decline. The pause in US strikes against Iran and the drop in oil prices have eased concerns about renewed acceleration in US inflation. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note has fallen, while the probability of an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase has declined slightly. As a result, the dollar has lost some of the demand generated by geopolitical tensions.

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For the euro, the outcome of the ECB’s latest meeting remains important. The central bank kept interest rates unchanged and confirmed that it would continue assessing incoming data without committing to a predetermined policy path. Uncertainty surrounding the energy shock is limiting a stronger recovery in the single currency, although today’s decline in oil prices reduces the risk of additional pressure on the eurozone economy and supports demand for the euro.

The main driver of the current session is the dollar’s correction ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, which begins on Tuesday. The market still expects the US central bank to deliver restrictive signals, limiting the upside potential for EUR/USD. Nevertheless, the latest momentum reflects lower Treasury yields and weaker defensive demand for the dollar, making a moderate continuation of the pair’s recovery the base-case scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1405, SL 1.1375, TP 1.1465

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Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 31 July 2026


XAUUSD: BUY 4100.00, SL 4065.00, TP 4187.50

Gold begins the week on a stronger footing following a pause in hostilities between the United States and Iran. Lower oil prices have eased inflation concerns, supported bonds, and put pressure on the US dollar. For XAUUSD, this reduces the risk of a further rise in real yields, although the easing of geopolitical tensions limits defensive demand.

The Federal Reserve’s decision will be the main event of the week. The market expects the policy rate to remain unchanged but will closely assess the central bank’s willingness to tighten policy further. If oil remains below its recent highs and Treasury yields do not resume their advance, the fundamental backdrop will continue to favor a recovery in gold.

Trading idea: BUY 4100.00, SL 4065.00, TP 4187.50


#SP500: BUY 7490, SL 7440, TP 7615

The US equity market enters the week supported by lower oil prices and easing inflation risks. This reduces pressure on Treasury yields and borrowing costs while improving the environment for companies sensitive to consumer spending. However, elevated equity valuations leave #SP500 highly dependent on corporate earnings.

The Federal Reserve’s decision and earnings releases from major technology companies will test current profit expectations. Strong results and controlled spending on artificial intelligence could restore demand for the sector, while restrictive signals from the central bank may limit the upside. The decline in the energy risk premium supports the buying scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 7490, SL 7440, TP 7615


#BRENT: SELL 91.80, SL 94.30, TP 86.80

Brent begins the week lower following a pause in US and Iranian strikes and renewed diplomatic efforts. The reduction in the immediate threat to supply is eroding the geopolitical premium after last week’s strong advance. However, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, which may keep volatility elevated.

A sustained recovery in oil prices would require fresh evidence of supply disruptions or a breakdown in negotiations. As long as regional exports continue and the risk of a more restrictive Federal Reserve policy weighs on demand expectations, the base-case weekly scenario allows for a further decline in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 91.80, SL 94.30, TP 86.80

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