Ogee wrote: Sat Mar 21, 2026 9:50 pm
Yes the topography is daunting, how would you get to the capital? Land ships from the Straits, if any survived the missile attacks then march troops across those mountains all the way to Tehran, not likely. No matter which approach, you've got mountains except the Caspian Sea and I doubt Russia will help you there.
So just getting to Tehran is going to be a sizable and lengthy problem. If they tried to just hold the Straits then they will be under constant attack for as long as they were there, they learnt those lessons back in the failures that were Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia and China will deliver as many missiles as Iran could ever hope for because distracting the US from Ukraine is in Russia's interest and it delays any US aggression against China.
But how long does the west have to build an army before economic collapse anyway? Probably not long enough. Besides that there is no public support, Trump will be turned out of office before a sizable army could be raised.
And what is the war really all about anyway? Netanyahu's dream of there not being any strong Islamic countries in the middle east is what it boils down to. Regarding the nuclear issue Iran could have had a bomb ages ago if they really wanted though now the value of that deterrence has been hammered home.
Trump is completely fucked, he just hasn't come to terms with it yet, doubling the price of oil severely affects the price of everything and that reckoning will be hitting very soon for everyone.
Wow well-written post and big eye-opener with the map topography image. You couldn't get into Iran from anywhere really.
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General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 22.03.26 were approximately:
personnel – about 1,287,880 (+940) persons
tanks – 11,793 (+3) units
armored combat vehicles – 24,263 (+1) units
artillery systems – 38,638 (+30) units
MLRS – 1,694 (+3) units
air defense systems – 1,336 (+3) units
aircraft – 435 (+0) units
helicopters – 350 (+1) units
operational–tactical UAVs – 190,870 (+1,885) units
cruise missiles – 4,468 (+0) units
ships / boats – 33 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
automotive and fuel tanks – 84,639 (+121) units
special equipment – 4,098 (+2) units
"Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal..."
And it gets worse. Trump, having already stepped into one trap looks set to march forward straight into another.
He has ordered to the Gulf US troop support equipment and aircraft.
He knows he's really fucked up and will go down in history as the president who started a war and lost it so why not roll the dice one more time.
But it's not going to work. The US is still trying to fight WWII type wars when the rest of the world has already moved on.
The Russians have proved they can turn out 1000 large long range drones a day. The Chinese have proved using robots they can turn out 1000 missiles a day.
The US meanwhile, to maximise profits, still make their missiles by hand and can turn out just 1000 a YEAR.
Iran has proved they can also turn out huge quantities of missiles and drones. Which is why the great US navy won't come within 1000 km of the place.
And why, no matter what the bullshiter Hegseth says, the US air force won't fly over Iran to drop bombs.
The Iranians have already proved they can shoot down US aircraft and have also just received a shipment of new S-4 Russian air defence missile batteries.
Just as US personnel are in Ukraine to operate the US Patriot air defence batteries so there are also Russians in Iran doing the same, payback's a bitch.
The US has a huge store of gravity bombs but can't use them, so are restricted to missiles and glide bombs of which they have a limited supply.
So Trump is shaping up to send in troops without full naval or air support, which will be a shit show.
US troops will be under constant missile and drone attacks whether they stay in place or try to move in column through mountain passes.
The whole operation is ridiculous and hopefully it's all just another Trump bluff. Or does Trump seriously still believe he has escalation dominance in spite of all the evidence to the contrary.
Time is running out for Trump, when the decapitation strikes didn't work he gave the operation in Iran 4 weeks to complete. But the reason for the number 4 was that’s how long the US missile stockpile would last.
So the whole troops thing must be a bluff, surely?
Update. Maybe it was just a bluff as Trump has now made another sudden sharp turn, for the worse.
And so, with 1 week of the 4 left to go a panic ridden Trump has now issued another ultimatum to Iran. This time it's ‘you have 48 hours to open the Straits or else’. Umm, I thought this war was supposed to be about nuclear materials, anyway whatever.
So now Trump is threatening to destroy Iran's power supply, didn't he tell us he already did that? Anyway note Russia is still trying to do that to Ukraine for 4 years now, so not so easy.
Meanwhile of course it will give Iran a good excuse to finish off the Gulf states oil production facilities for good, a much easier task.
Iran also said in response to the Trump ultimatum they may as well take out the Gulf states desalination plants as well.
And for good measure the Houthis have decided to join in the fun and block the Red Sea to tanker shipping so that's another 12% to add to the 20% oil supply disruption already in place.
Trump diplomacy via social media scores yet another own-goal, the US surely can't take much more of this reckless bullshit.
And all the while Iranian ballistic missiles continue to rain down on Israel, one just hours ago causing 10 dead and 84 injured.
In the video below Doomberg predicts the US halting LNG exports to protect US consumers, which would spell total disaster for Europe and if any of our leaders had even an ounce of common sense they would be sucking up to Russia on their hands and knees, but of course they aren’t, because they don’t.
And with the destruction of oil supply rather than just disruption this crisis will last years not months. A major recession is coming, 4 of the last 5 oil price spikes have caused one, and this one coming will be fast, hard and lengthy.
US/Israel Will Lose this War if it Doesn't Get This One Huge Point /Lt Col Daniel Davis
BREAKING: Trump Gives Iran 48hr Ultimatum: Open Straits or Else
DOOMBERG | War in Iran causes oil infrastructure calamity...here comes the money printers!
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General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
23 hours
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 22.03.26 were approximately:
personnel – about 1,287,880 (+940) persons
tanks – 11,793 (+3) units
armored combat vehicles – 24,263 (+1) units
artillery systems – 38,638 (+30) units
MLRS – 1,694 (+3) units
air defense systems – 1,336 (+3) units
aircraft – 435 (+0) units
helicopters – 350 (+0) units
operational–tactical UAVs – 190,870 (+1,885) units
cruise missiles – 4,468 (+0) units
ships – 33 (+0) units
submarines – 2 (+0) units
automotive and fuel tanks – 84,639 (+121) units
special equipment – 4,098 (+2) units
"Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal..."
So everyone is waiting 48 hrsto see whether this is another bullshit Trump deadline with a trapdoor to allow him to run away like has happened so many times during his presiding over the Ukraine war.
He would issue an ultimatum to Putin or Zelensky, nothing would happen, the deadline would pass and Trump would explain that there were new secret negotiations started up because Putin (or Zelensky) were really, really scared of his ultimatum and these talks needed just a little more time and then everyone eventually forgot all about the deadline that never was.
Is this latest ultimatum going to go the same way? We can only hope so.
Far from achieving Trump's aim of an Iranian capitulation the Iranians have gleefully responded by announcing they will set the region on fire making it uninhabitable for years to come, which it will be if they destroy all the Gulf states’ (and Israel's) desalination plants.
So, same as his previous ultimatums Trump could pretend he’s got some reward and declare the whole emergency (of his own making) over. But what then, he just might walk away and leave the closed Straits problem to the Europeans while the US ramps up their fracking industry, seriously he really might.
But maybe he might just make a deal with the Iranians to relieve sanctions on Iran to get the Straits open again plus other secret commitments to the Iranians that his ego would never let be disclosed.
No matter what actually happens in the Gulf, if Trump starts flogging a dead horse or just walks away, there is happening right now an inevitable paradigm shift in global geopolitics.
The great US navy and air force are not able to dominate Iran, that’s not Trump’s fault but he was warned and chose to ignore it, and if Trump now dares to send ground forces it really won’t go well for them.
Trump’s constant stream of threats has been called and the US has been caught out as being far weaker on the world stage than they had been projecting.
What Trump should do from here is to agree to sanctions relief for Iran and a reduction in the role of US bases in the Gulf to defence only and to agree to Russia taking oversight of Iran’s civil enrichment program (Russia has always been strongly against nuclear weapons proliferation).
Iran may well agree to those terms, they had agreed to much less just before the conflict started.
As for the US, they really do have a major problem with Trump and really do need to accept that the future will be multipolar.
That is going to mean a decreasing role for the US dollar and those excess dollars coming home and the resulting inflation will cause major economic headaches but not as much as WWIII would.
From first video below:
What Trump Doesn’t Want You to Know About the U.S-Iran War
Why This Oil Price Shift May Not Reverse Even If Hormuz Opens | Skip York
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Ogee wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2026 9:07 pmSo everyone is waiting 48 hrsto see whether this is another bullshit Trump deadline with a trapdoor to allow him to run away like has happened so many times during his presiding over the Ukraine war.
He would issue an ultimatum to Putin or Zelensky, nothing would happen, the deadline would pass and Trump would explain that there were new secret negotiations started up because Putin (or Zelensky) were really, really scared of his ultimatum and these talks needed just a little more time and then everyone eventually forgot all about the deadline that never was.
Is this latest ultimatum going to go the same way? We can only hope so.
'Trump says US and Iran have held talks on ending war in Middle East as he postpones power plant strikes'
Huge financial swings follow Trump statement
Donald Trump says the US and Iran have held talks on the "complete and total resolution of hostilities" in the Middle East
Iranians are saying that Trump is making this all up, there are not nor have been any direct or indirect negotiations with Trump (he has pulled this stunt before as part of a climb down).
Alastair Crooke : Trump Loses Control of the War
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Ogee wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2026 11:38 pm
Iranians are saying that Trump is making this all up, there are not nor have been any direct or indirect negotiations with Trump (he has pulled this stunt before as part of a climb down).
What a shit show. This guy has lost the plot.
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while the US ramps up their fracking industry, seriously he really might.
From first video below:
