Daily Forex Analysis – USD Slips as Traders Await Trump–Xi Meeting & Fed Impact - 30/10/2025​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary​
Major currency pairs are showing mixed movements on Thursday as the U.S. Dollar weakens ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting and shifting central bank policy signals. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs gain modestly, while USD/JPY surges to an eight-month high following dovish comments from the Bank of Japan, and USD/CAD dips as the Bank of Canada’s hawkish stance supports the Canadian Dollar. Traders are exercising caution as key data releases and global policy decisions shape near-term direction.

Market Overview​
The forex market is witnessing cautious volatility as investors react to diverging monetary policy signals and upcoming economic data. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) retreats toward 99.00 after the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut, described as a “risk management” move with no immediate plans for additional easing. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates steady at 2%, and BoC’s policy tone suggests its easing cycle may be nearing an end.
Traders are closely monitoring developments from the Trump–Xi meeting, which concluded without a trade agreement but resulted in tariff reductions and renewed optimism over rare-earth exports. Across the board, sentiment remains cautious, with attention turning to today’s key economic releases — including Eurozone GDP, U.S. GDP, and ECB’s press conference.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)​
Pair MA Trend (10–50) RSI Stochastic Sentiment Direction Trade Suggestion
EUR/USD All Bearish Crossovers 44.94 (Neutral) 42.47 (Neutral) Bearish Sell Sell @1.1633 → TP: 1.1576 / SL: 1.1668
GBP/USD All Bearish Crossovers 33.05 (Bearish) 14.74 (Neutral) Bearish Sell Sell @1.3261 → TP: 1.3114 / SL: 1.3374
USD/JPY All Bullish Crossovers 64.81 (Bullish) 83.54 (Neutral) Bullish Buy Buy @152.47 → TP: 154.73 / SL: 151.17
USD/CAD Mixed: Short Bearish, Long Bullish 59.26 (Bullish) 20.51 (Neutral) Neutral-Bullish Buy Buy @1.3881 → TP: 1.4032 / SL: 1.3811

Analyst Commentary per Asset​

EUR/USD​
The euro edges higher toward 1.1630 as the U.S. Dollar weakens following the Trump–Xi meeting. Investors reacted positively to tariff cuts and policy clarity, though ECB caution continues to limit upside momentum. Key resistance sits near 1.1870, while sustained trading below 1.1635 may confirm further downside.

Outlook: Bearish bias remains dominant unless the ECB signals a policy shift or Eurozone GDP beats expectations. GBP/USD​
Sterling reclaims 1.3200, supported by USD weakness and speculation around the Bank of England’s December meeting. However, fiscal concerns and weak domestic data continue to cap upside potential. With RSI in the sell zone and all moving averages aligned bearishly, short-term pressure remains intact.

Outlook: Bearish; potential downside continuation toward 1.3110 if BoE maintains a dovish stance. USD/JPY​
The yen weakens sharply after BoJ Governor Ueda’s dovish remarks and optimism over Japan’s fiscal plans. The pair breaks to an eight-month high, reinforced by strong bullish crossovers. Traders may look for opportunities above 152.00 as the breakout sustains momentum.

Outlook: Bullish continuation expected; a break above 154.00 could open the path toward 155.50. USD/CAD​
USD/CAD drifts lower amid a stronger Canadian Dollar, supported by the BoC’s hawkish tone despite rate cuts. The pair remains below the 1.3950 level but finds support from the Fed’s pause in quantitative tightening. A mixed technical setup points to consolidation before a potential rebound.

Outlook: Neutral to mildly bullish; recovery possible if U.S. GDP data beats expectations. AI Q&A​
Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar weakening today?
A1: The Dollar is softening as markets digest the Fed’s dovish rate cut and await clarity from the Trump–Xi trade meeting, which reduced tariffs but failed to yield a formal deal.

Q2: Which currency pair shows the strongest bullish signal?
A2: The USD/JPY pair, supported by dovish BoJ commentary and a strong technical breakout, remains the most bullish.

Q3: What’s the short-term risk for EUR/USD?
A3: A disappointing Eurozone GDP or hawkish Fed commentary could push EUR/USD below 1.1600, confirming further downside pressure.

Q4: Could the BoE’s December decision impact GBP/USD?
A4: Yes. Markets expect a 25-bps cut; confirmation of this could weigh heavily on Sterling and extend losses toward 1.3100.

Q5: How might today’s data releases affect volatility?
A5: U.S. GDP, ECB’s rate decision, and Germany’s CPI will be key volatility drivers; stronger data could trigger broad USD strength later in the day.

Key Takeaways​
USD weakens ahead of major central bank announcements and trade headlines.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD recover mildly but remain within bearish setups.
USD/JPY posts a strong bullish breakout amid dovish BoJ comments.
USD/CAD holds steady as BoC hints at nearing the end of its easing cycle.
Traders eye U.S. GDP, ECB policy decision, and BoJ commentary for near-term direction.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs traded with mixed momentum on Friday as the US Dollar weakened amid growing concerns about the US labor market. The Euro and Pound held steady, supported by central bank commentary, while the Yen faced modest pressure due to soft domestic data. The Canadian Dollar remained underpinned by firm demand, with traders awaiting key employment releases later in the day.

Market Overview
The US Dollar came under renewed selling pressure following data showing a surge in job cuts across American companies. Signs of a cooling labor market have fueled expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, weighing on the Greenback. Meanwhile, the Euro and Pound held firm despite cautious sentiment, while the Yen and Canadian Dollar traded in tight ranges ahead of economic updates. Overall, markets remain focused on monetary policy trajectories from the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)

Currency Pair Trend RSI Stochastic Sentiment Resistance (R1/R2) Support (S1/S2) Trade Suggestion
EUR/USD Bearish 40.79 (Neutral) 25.97 (Sell) Bearish 1.1711 / 1.1772 1.1514 / 1.1454 Sell 1.1580 → TP 1.1466 / SL 1.1656
GBP/USD Bearish 36.37 (Neutral) 21.37 (Neutral) Bearish 1.3423 / 1.3524 1.3094 / 1.2993 Sell 1.3179 → TP 1.3019 / SL 1.3317
USD/JPY Bullish 59.21 (Buy) 77.74 (Neutral) Bullish 154.66 / 156.51 148.65 / 146.80 Buy 152.86 → TP 154.45 / SL 152.06
USD/CAD Bullish 71.21 (Buy) 89.68 (Neutral) Bullish 1.4066 / 1.4111 1.3919 / 1.3874 Buy 1.4075 → TP 1.4209 / SL 1.4003
Analyst Commentary per Asset

EUR/USD – Supported by Weak U.S. Labor Data

The EUR/USD pair holds near 1.1540 as weak U.S. labor data continues to weigh on the Greenback. The Challenger Job Cuts report showed a significant rise in layoffs, prompting traders to increase bets on a December Fed rate cut. The Euro remains stable amid comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who signaled comfort with current interest rate levels. Technically, the pair faces resistance at 1.1711, while a break below 1.1514 could accelerate downside momentum.

Outlook: Bearish bias remains intact; rallies toward 1.1580 may attract selling pressure. GBP/USD – Dovish BoE Outlook Weighs on the Pound

GBP/USD retreats toward 1.3100 following a dovish stance from the Bank of England. Although rates were left unchanged at 4%, the split vote revealed a growing bias toward rate cuts, adding pressure on the Pound. The pair remains sensitive to U.S. economic updates, with traders monitoring the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further clues on Fed policy. Technically, the pair stays weak below 1.3230, and any bounce may face resistance around 1.3420.

Outlook: Bearish; downside potential toward 1.3019 remains open if U.S. Dollar sentiment stabilizes.
USD/JPY – Yen Softens as Japan’s Data Misses Expectations

The Japanese Yen slipped on Friday after weak consumption data and continued policy ambiguity from the Bank of Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance adds to dovish expectations, but potential FX intervention speculation limits losses. The pair maintains a bullish bias above 152.80 with short-term resistance at 154.66.

Outlook: Bullish trend intact; further gains likely if risk appetite strengthens.

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Stays Strong Ahead of Jobs Data.

USD/CAD continues its uptrend near 1.4120, hovering close to six-month highs. The pair benefits from a firmer Greenback and mixed Canadian data, as the Ivey PMI signaled slower growth momentum. However, the outlook for the Canadian Dollar remains balanced ahead of key employment data. A strong jobs report could limit USD/CAD upside momentum.

Outlook: Bullish but cautious; watch for 1.4200 resistance as potential profit-taking zone.
Elsewhere in the Forex Market
AUD/USD: Up 0.16% to 0.6489, supported by risk sentiment recovery.
USD/CHF: Up 0.18% to 0.8076, as the Dollar steadies against the Franc.
EUR/GBP: Up 0.03% at 0.8791.
EUR/AUD: Down 0.26% to 1.7774.
AUD/NZD: Up 0.56% at 1.1563.
USD/CNY: Up 0.05% to 7.1220.
Key Economic Events & Data Releases Today
(CAD) Employment Change (Oct): Forecast –5.0K | Previous 60.4K (19:00 GMT)
(CAD) Unemployment Rate (Oct): Forecast 7.1% | Previous 7.1% (19:00 GMT)
AI Q&A Section
Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar under pressure today?
A: Weak labor data and rising job cuts have increased expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, weighing on the Dollar.

Q2: What’s driving the Euro’s resilience?
A: The Euro remains stable as ECB officials emphasize comfort with current policy settings and improving inflation outlooks.

Q3: Why did GBP/USD drop despite earlier gains?
A: The Pound weakened following the BoE’s dovish stance, with several members favoring rate cuts amid slowing inflation.

Q4: Can the Yen strengthen in the near term?
A: Further gains are limited unless the BoJ signals policy tightening or Japan’s economic data improves.

Q5: What’s next for USD/CAD?
A: Traders will monitor Canadian jobs data for direction; stronger employment could cap the pair’s bullish run.

Key Takeaways
Dollar weakness driven by U.S. job cut data and dovish Fed expectations.
EUR/USD holds steady but remains vulnerable below 1.1600.
GBP/USD under pressure following BoE’s dovish tone.
USD/JPY maintains bullish momentum despite JPY intervention risks.
USD/CAD trades near six-month highs ahead of Canada’s labor market data.
Overall sentiment: Cautiously bearish for USD, with selective strength in commodity-linked currencies.

Forex Market Insights – Dollar Steadies After U.S. Shutdown Ends.​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs traded cautiously on Thursday after the official end of the record-breaking U.S. government shutdown. The U.S. Dollar (USD) steadied as traders reassessed Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, while investors awaited key data from the UK, China, and the Eurozone. The Euro and Swiss Franc held firm against the greenback, while the British Pound and New Zealand Dollar weakened on domestic policy uncertainty.

Market Overview
Markets are adjusting to the new fiscal landscape following President Trump’s approval of the funding bill that officially ended the 43-day U.S. government shutdown. The resolution has bolstered overall risk appetite, yet the U.S. Dollar remains under mixed pressure due to conflicting signals from Federal Reserve policymakers.

Recent labor market data painted a weaker picture of the U.S. economy, with ADP and Challenger reports both signaling increased job losses. However, hawkish comments from Fed officials have tempered expectations of a near-term rate cut, keeping traders cautious. In Europe, the Euro holds steady as the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain policy rates, while the British Pound trades lower ahead of critical UK GDP data. Meanwhile, risk-sensitive currencies such as the Kiwi remain under pressure due to weak domestic fundamentals and global uncertainty.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)
Pair Trend RSI Sentiment Key Levels (Support / Resistance) Trade Suggestion
EUR/USD Bullish 51.38 Buy S1: 1.1514 / R1: 1.1711 Buy Limit 1.1590 → TP 1.1637 / SL 1.1566
GBP/USD Bearish 39.63 Sell S1: 1.3094 / R1: 1.3423 Sell Limit 1.3171 → TP 1.3080 / SL 1.3236
NZD/USD Bearish 39.44 Sell S1: 0.5688 / R1: 0.5812 Sell Limit 0.5691 → TP 0.5628 / SL 0.5729
USD/CHF Bearish 43.55 Neutral S1: 0.7919 / R1: 0.8075 Sell Limit 0.8001 → TP 0.7940 / SL 0.8034
Analyst Commentary per Asset
EUR/USD
EUR/USD remains steady near 1.1600 after six straight sessions of gains, as traders digest the U.S. government’s reopening and reassess rate expectations. Weaker U.S. employment data supports a mildly dovish bias, but hawkish Fed commentary keeps the greenback anchored. The Euro benefits from stability in ECB policy expectations, suggesting the pair could consolidate above 1.1550 before the next directional move.
Outlook: Mild bullish bias; buy on dips toward 1.1590.
GBP/USD
The Pound remains under pressure below 1.3150, weighed by concerns about a potential BoE rate cut in December. Investor focus is squarely on the UK’s Q3 GDP data, expected to confirm sluggish growth. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials provide further downside for the pair.
Outlook: Bearish; rallies toward 1.3170 may face resistance, favoring short positions.
NZD/USD
NZD/USD extends losses toward 0.5650 as the Kiwi faces renewed selling pressure. The currency remains vulnerable amid RBNZ’s aggressive rate cuts and weak domestic data. Meanwhile, the USD gains traction on optimism over fiscal stability and upcoming U.S. data releases.
Outlook: Bearish continuation; selling rallies remains favored below 0.5700.
USD/CHF
USD/CHF trades quietly around 0.8000, weighed by dovish Fed expectations and a firm Swiss Franc. The pair’s technical setup suggests limited upside potential unless U.S. yields recover. The SNB’s steady inflation outlook adds further strength to the CHF, keeping the pair biased lower.
Outlook: Bearish bias; potential drift toward 0.7940 support zone.
AI Q&A Section
Q1: What is driving cautious sentiment in forex markets today?
A: Traders are reassessing Fed rate expectations after mixed U.S. labor data and the official end of the government shutdown, creating uncertainty around future monetary policy.

Q2: Why is the Euro holding firm despite a stronger Dollar?
A: The Euro benefits from stable ECB policy guidance and lower inflation volatility across the Eurozone, which offsets mild USD strength.

Q3: What factors are pressuring the British Pound?
A: The Pound faces pressure from expectations of a BoE rate cut and concerns over weaker economic growth in Q3.

Q4: Why is the New Zealand Dollar underperforming?
A: The Kiwi is weighed down by recent RBNZ rate cuts, soft GDP growth, and rising unemployment, signaling economic weakness.

Q5: How does Fed policy uncertainty affect USD/CHF?
A: Dovish expectations limit the USD’s upside potential, while the stable SNB policy and firm Swiss data strengthen CHF demand.

Key Takeaways
EUR/USD maintains a bullish bias amid stable ECB outlook and soft U.S. data.
GBP/USD under pressure as UK growth data looms and BoE easing bets rise.
NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further downside amid weak Kiwi fundamentals.
USD/CHF consolidates near 0.8000 as dovish Fed sentiment offsets recovery attempts.
Overall sentiment: cautious and data-driven, with traders awaiting fresh macro catalysts from Europe and the UK.

Forex Market Insights – EUR/USD Steady, GBP/USD Slips and JPY Weakens in Friday Trade.​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs trade mixed on Friday as markets digest shifting central bank expectations and U.S. data uncertainty following the prolonged government shutdown. EUR/USD holds near two-week highs, GBP/USD weakens amid renewed UK fiscal concerns, USD/JPY remains near multi-month lows on BoJ hesitation, and AUD/USD edges higher, supported by firmer Chinese macro data and improved domestic fundamentals. The U.S. Dollar stays soft, limiting downside across risk-aligned currencies.

Market Overview
Forex markets remain range-bound yet directionally biased as shifting policy expectations shape sentiment across major pairs. The U.S. Dollar lingers near a two-week low as traders brace for delayed or missing U.S. economic data, placing greater weight on FOMC remarks for policy clarity. Eurozone GDP and Chinese economic releases influence broader FX flows, while UK fiscal concerns pressure GBP/USD ahead of the November budget. Meanwhile, expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike continue to fade, weighing heavily on the Yen. Commodity currencies find support from improved risk appetite and China’s latest economic prints.

Technical Summary — Compact Table

Pair
RSI
Stochastic
Trend
Key Support
Key Resistance
Bias

EUR/USD
54.04 (Bullish)
74.86 (Neutral)
Bullish above 1.1600
1.1514 / 1.1454
1.1711 / 1.1772
Buy

GBP/USD
41.06 (Neutral)
40.27 (Neutral)
Bearish below 1.3200
1.3094 / 1.2993
1.3423 / 1.3524
Sell

USD/JPY
63.07 (Bullish)
87.36 (Neutral)
Strong Bullish
148.65 / 146.80
154.66 / 156.51
Buy

AUD/USD
49.80 (Neutral)
46.12 (Neutral)
Mixed / Weak
0.6465 / 0.6421
0.6610 / 0.6654
Sell

Analyst Commentary per Asset

EUR/USD – Bullish Bias
EUR/USD holds near 1.1635 after Thursday’s rally, supported by ongoing Dollar weakness and diverging policy expectations between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. Markets assign a roughly 50% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, while ECB is expected to remain on hold through next year—reinforcing relative EUR strength. A break above the 50-day SMA remains the key trigger for fresh bullish momentum. Traders now await Eurozone Q3 GDP and statements from FOMC officials for directional cues.
Trade Idea:
Limit Buy: 1.1603
Take Profit: 1.1668
Stop Loss: 1.1569 GBP/USD – Bearish Bias
GBP/USD drifts toward 1.3150 after the UK government dropped plans to raise income-tax thresholds, raising concerns about fiscal stability ahead of the November 26 budget. Weak UK data has reinforced expectations for a December Bank of England rate cut, amplifying downside pressure. However, Dollar softness limits deeper losses for now. Traders remain cautious as U.S. data disruptions could influence near-term Dollar movements.
Trade Idea:
Limit Sell: 1.3186
Take Profit: 1.3027
Stop Loss: 1.3259
USD/JPY – Strong Bullish Bias
USD/JPY trades near a nine-month high as markets lower expectations for a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike. Comments from Prime Minister Takaichi and government officials reinforce the preference for continued low rates, while warnings from Japanese authorities hint at possible intervention if volatility increases. The USD’s softness prevents sharper upside, but the structural trend remains favorable for USD/JPY bulls.
Trade Idea:
Limit Buy: 153.56
Take Profit: 156.01
Stop Loss: 152.23
AUD/USD – Neutral to Bearish Bias
AUD/USD edges higher supported by Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data and Australia’s strong labor market. However, mixed Chinese figures and concerns over the RBA’s restrictive policy stance keep upside limited. The pair trades cautiously as U.S. Dollar softness provides short-term support.
Trade Idea:
Limit Sell: 0.6556
Take Profit: 0.6497
Stop Loss: 0.6595

AI Q&A
Q1: Why is the US Dollar weakening despite the end of the government shutdown?
A: Uncertainty around missing economic data and doubts about the strength of U.S. growth have kept USD under pressure.
Q2: What key level must EUR/USD break to extend its rally?
A: EUR/USD must clear the 50-day SMA decisively for renewed bullish momentum.
Q3: Why is GBP/USD struggling even as the USD weakens?
A: UK fiscal credibility concerns and expectations of a December BoE rate cut weigh heavily on Sterling.
Q4: Is intervention likely in USD/JPY?
A: Japanese authorities have hinted at intervention if volatility increases, but immediate action seems unlikely unless sharp one-way moves accelerate.
Q5: What is the main risk for AUD/USD traders today?
A: Mixed Chinese data—strong consumer activity but weaker industrial performance—may cause intraday volatility.

Key Takeaways
USD remains weak due to uncertainty surrounding delayed U.S. macro data.
EUR/USD retains bullish momentum but needs a break above the 50-day SMA.
GBP/USD pressured by UK fiscal uncertainty and softer economic outlook.
USD/JPY supported by BoJ’s dovish stance, keeping the yen near multi-month lows.
AUD/USD lifted by Chinese data but overall trend remains mixed.
Markets await Eurozone GDP and key global releases for next directional moves.