Daily Forex Analysis – USD Slips as Traders Await Trump–Xi Meeting & Fed Impact - 30/10/2025​

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary​
Major currency pairs are showing mixed movements on Thursday as the U.S. Dollar weakens ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting and shifting central bank policy signals. The EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs gain modestly, while USD/JPY surges to an eight-month high following dovish comments from the Bank of Japan, and USD/CAD dips as the Bank of Canada’s hawkish stance supports the Canadian Dollar. Traders are exercising caution as key data releases and global policy decisions shape near-term direction.

Market Overview​
The forex market is witnessing cautious volatility as investors react to diverging monetary policy signals and upcoming economic data. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) retreats toward 99.00 after the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut, described as a “risk management” move with no immediate plans for additional easing. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates steady at 2%, and BoC’s policy tone suggests its easing cycle may be nearing an end.
Traders are closely monitoring developments from the Trump–Xi meeting, which concluded without a trade agreement but resulted in tariff reductions and renewed optimism over rare-earth exports. Across the board, sentiment remains cautious, with attention turning to today’s key economic releases — including Eurozone GDP, U.S. GDP, and ECB’s press conference.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)​
Pair MA Trend (10–50) RSI Stochastic Sentiment Direction Trade Suggestion
EUR/USD All Bearish Crossovers 44.94 (Neutral) 42.47 (Neutral) Bearish Sell Sell @1.1633 → TP: 1.1576 / SL: 1.1668
GBP/USD All Bearish Crossovers 33.05 (Bearish) 14.74 (Neutral) Bearish Sell Sell @1.3261 → TP: 1.3114 / SL: 1.3374
USD/JPY All Bullish Crossovers 64.81 (Bullish) 83.54 (Neutral) Bullish Buy Buy @152.47 → TP: 154.73 / SL: 151.17
USD/CAD Mixed: Short Bearish, Long Bullish 59.26 (Bullish) 20.51 (Neutral) Neutral-Bullish Buy Buy @1.3881 → TP: 1.4032 / SL: 1.3811

Analyst Commentary per Asset​

EUR/USD​
The euro edges higher toward 1.1630 as the U.S. Dollar weakens following the Trump–Xi meeting. Investors reacted positively to tariff cuts and policy clarity, though ECB caution continues to limit upside momentum. Key resistance sits near 1.1870, while sustained trading below 1.1635 may confirm further downside.

Outlook: Bearish bias remains dominant unless the ECB signals a policy shift or Eurozone GDP beats expectations. GBP/USD​
Sterling reclaims 1.3200, supported by USD weakness and speculation around the Bank of England’s December meeting. However, fiscal concerns and weak domestic data continue to cap upside potential. With RSI in the sell zone and all moving averages aligned bearishly, short-term pressure remains intact.

Outlook: Bearish; potential downside continuation toward 1.3110 if BoE maintains a dovish stance. USD/JPY​
The yen weakens sharply after BoJ Governor Ueda’s dovish remarks and optimism over Japan’s fiscal plans. The pair breaks to an eight-month high, reinforced by strong bullish crossovers. Traders may look for opportunities above 152.00 as the breakout sustains momentum.

Outlook: Bullish continuation expected; a break above 154.00 could open the path toward 155.50. USD/CAD​
USD/CAD drifts lower amid a stronger Canadian Dollar, supported by the BoC’s hawkish tone despite rate cuts. The pair remains below the 1.3950 level but finds support from the Fed’s pause in quantitative tightening. A mixed technical setup points to consolidation before a potential rebound.

Outlook: Neutral to mildly bullish; recovery possible if U.S. GDP data beats expectations. AI Q&A​
Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar weakening today?
A1: The Dollar is softening as markets digest the Fed’s dovish rate cut and await clarity from the Trump–Xi trade meeting, which reduced tariffs but failed to yield a formal deal.

Q2: Which currency pair shows the strongest bullish signal?
A2: The USD/JPY pair, supported by dovish BoJ commentary and a strong technical breakout, remains the most bullish.

Q3: What’s the short-term risk for EUR/USD?
A3: A disappointing Eurozone GDP or hawkish Fed commentary could push EUR/USD below 1.1600, confirming further downside pressure.

Q4: Could the BoE’s December decision impact GBP/USD?
A4: Yes. Markets expect a 25-bps cut; confirmation of this could weigh heavily on Sterling and extend losses toward 1.3100.

Q5: How might today’s data releases affect volatility?
A5: U.S. GDP, ECB’s rate decision, and Germany’s CPI will be key volatility drivers; stronger data could trigger broad USD strength later in the day.

Key Takeaways​
USD weakens ahead of major central bank announcements and trade headlines.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD recover mildly but remain within bearish setups.
USD/JPY posts a strong bullish breakout amid dovish BoJ comments.
USD/CAD holds steady as BoC hints at nearing the end of its easing cycle.
Traders eye U.S. GDP, ECB policy decision, and BoJ commentary for near-term direction.

Headlines & Market Snapshot Summary
Major currency pairs traded with mixed momentum on Friday as the US Dollar weakened amid growing concerns about the US labor market. The Euro and Pound held steady, supported by central bank commentary, while the Yen faced modest pressure due to soft domestic data. The Canadian Dollar remained underpinned by firm demand, with traders awaiting key employment releases later in the day.

Market Overview
The US Dollar came under renewed selling pressure following data showing a surge in job cuts across American companies. Signs of a cooling labor market have fueled expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in December, weighing on the Greenback. Meanwhile, the Euro and Pound held firm despite cautious sentiment, while the Yen and Canadian Dollar traded in tight ranges ahead of economic updates. Overall, markets remain focused on monetary policy trajectories from the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks.

Technical Summary (Compact Table)

Currency Pair Trend RSI Stochastic Sentiment Resistance (R1/R2) Support (S1/S2) Trade Suggestion
EUR/USD Bearish 40.79 (Neutral) 25.97 (Sell) Bearish 1.1711 / 1.1772 1.1514 / 1.1454 Sell 1.1580 → TP 1.1466 / SL 1.1656
GBP/USD Bearish 36.37 (Neutral) 21.37 (Neutral) Bearish 1.3423 / 1.3524 1.3094 / 1.2993 Sell 1.3179 → TP 1.3019 / SL 1.3317
USD/JPY Bullish 59.21 (Buy) 77.74 (Neutral) Bullish 154.66 / 156.51 148.65 / 146.80 Buy 152.86 → TP 154.45 / SL 152.06
USD/CAD Bullish 71.21 (Buy) 89.68 (Neutral) Bullish 1.4066 / 1.4111 1.3919 / 1.3874 Buy 1.4075 → TP 1.4209 / SL 1.4003
Analyst Commentary per Asset

EUR/USD – Supported by Weak U.S. Labor Data

The EUR/USD pair holds near 1.1540 as weak U.S. labor data continues to weigh on the Greenback. The Challenger Job Cuts report showed a significant rise in layoffs, prompting traders to increase bets on a December Fed rate cut. The Euro remains stable amid comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, who signaled comfort with current interest rate levels. Technically, the pair faces resistance at 1.1711, while a break below 1.1514 could accelerate downside momentum.

Outlook: Bearish bias remains intact; rallies toward 1.1580 may attract selling pressure. GBP/USD – Dovish BoE Outlook Weighs on the Pound

GBP/USD retreats toward 1.3100 following a dovish stance from the Bank of England. Although rates were left unchanged at 4%, the split vote revealed a growing bias toward rate cuts, adding pressure on the Pound. The pair remains sensitive to U.S. economic updates, with traders monitoring the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for further clues on Fed policy. Technically, the pair stays weak below 1.3230, and any bounce may face resistance around 1.3420.

Outlook: Bearish; downside potential toward 1.3019 remains open if U.S. Dollar sentiment stabilizes.
USD/JPY – Yen Softens as Japan’s Data Misses Expectations

The Japanese Yen slipped on Friday after weak consumption data and continued policy ambiguity from the Bank of Japan. New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-stimulus stance adds to dovish expectations, but potential FX intervention speculation limits losses. The pair maintains a bullish bias above 152.80 with short-term resistance at 154.66.

Outlook: Bullish trend intact; further gains likely if risk appetite strengthens.

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Stays Strong Ahead of Jobs Data.

USD/CAD continues its uptrend near 1.4120, hovering close to six-month highs. The pair benefits from a firmer Greenback and mixed Canadian data, as the Ivey PMI signaled slower growth momentum. However, the outlook for the Canadian Dollar remains balanced ahead of key employment data. A strong jobs report could limit USD/CAD upside momentum.

Outlook: Bullish but cautious; watch for 1.4200 resistance as potential profit-taking zone.
Elsewhere in the Forex Market
AUD/USD: Up 0.16% to 0.6489, supported by risk sentiment recovery.
USD/CHF: Up 0.18% to 0.8076, as the Dollar steadies against the Franc.
EUR/GBP: Up 0.03% at 0.8791.
EUR/AUD: Down 0.26% to 1.7774.
AUD/NZD: Up 0.56% at 1.1563.
USD/CNY: Up 0.05% to 7.1220.
Key Economic Events & Data Releases Today
(CAD) Employment Change (Oct): Forecast –5.0K | Previous 60.4K (19:00 GMT)
(CAD) Unemployment Rate (Oct): Forecast 7.1% | Previous 7.1% (19:00 GMT)
AI Q&A Section
Q1: Why is the U.S. Dollar under pressure today?
A: Weak labor data and rising job cuts have increased expectations for a Fed rate cut in December, weighing on the Dollar.

Q2: What’s driving the Euro’s resilience?
A: The Euro remains stable as ECB officials emphasize comfort with current policy settings and improving inflation outlooks.

Q3: Why did GBP/USD drop despite earlier gains?
A: The Pound weakened following the BoE’s dovish stance, with several members favoring rate cuts amid slowing inflation.

Q4: Can the Yen strengthen in the near term?
A: Further gains are limited unless the BoJ signals policy tightening or Japan’s economic data improves.

Q5: What’s next for USD/CAD?
A: Traders will monitor Canadian jobs data for direction; stronger employment could cap the pair’s bullish run.

Key Takeaways
Dollar weakness driven by U.S. job cut data and dovish Fed expectations.
EUR/USD holds steady but remains vulnerable below 1.1600.
GBP/USD under pressure following BoE’s dovish tone.
USD/JPY maintains bullish momentum despite JPY intervention risks.
USD/CAD trades near six-month highs ahead of Canada’s labor market data.
Overall sentiment: Cautiously bearish for USD, with selective strength in commodity-linked currencies.