The biggest problem the Russians face is that neither Ukraine, nor the Europeans, nor the Americans seem to have any understanding of how real diplomacy is done.
Zelensky jumps all over the place depending on what Trump has just said while Trump himself tends to agree with whoever he last spoke to. The Europeans just hang onto the propaganda narrative no matter how often reality jumps up to slap them in the face.
The Russians meanwhile have stuck to the same position for literally years and have sat and watched the west march up and down totally ignoring it despite tripping over it repeatedly.
Watching these western leaders try diplomacy is like watching clowns in a never ending slapstick comedy routine.
Zelensky still wants the war to continue for personal survival reasons.
Macron and co want the war to continue to keep Russia and the US as far apart as possible. They're terrified Russia and the US will patch things up and become buddies again leaving Europe all alone.
Trump now has moved to side with Kellogg and Rubio having turned away from Witkoff and Vance. A big mistake believing that Russia is weakening despite all the evidence indicating Russia is actually much stronger than when they started and are still getting stronger.
Ukraine's chances ended first with the failure of sanctions and then with the failure of the 2023 summer offensive. Since then Ukraine has steadily been getting weaker. The longer they delay in negotiating terms the worse those terms will be.
There is nothing Ukraine can do to turn things around, they must run out of recruits soon and terms are always going to be better than an inevitable collapse, just ask the Germans re; 1945.
But Zelensky's not interested in saving Ukraine, he won't be living there after the war after all, and as said, he needs the war to continue, for the time being at least, for his own reasons of personal safety.
Reminder that Zelensky's insistence of an unconditional ceasefire before negotiations is a strategy. Pausing here will strip Russia of it's momentum and leverage while enabling Ukraine time to try to level the battlefield and so put them in a better position for the negotiations.
Putin's insistence for unconditional negotiations before a ceasefire negates Zelensky's ploy and reiterates Russia's commitment to peace (whether true or not).
And so what's up next?
The negotiations are a run around for both Zelensky and Putin and will probably go nowhere.
Ukraine continues backwards while Russia is giving a final polish to it's 2 new fully trained and equipped armies and a full stockpile of their new Oreshnik missiles, all ready just in time for their expected summer offensive.
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The difference between an 'SMO' and a 'War' is a legal distinction. War gives the commander-in-chief far greater autonomy while many decisions made during an SMO require security council approval.
Putin & Zelensky to Meet Face-to-Face in Istanbul? or will Zelensky Sink Talks Again?
FRIENDS in Kiev. Trump backs Istanbul talks. Zelensky DARES Putin to meet. Germany Taurus ultimatum
The EU issue an ultimatum, Putin says 'no, but let's talk', Zelensky says 'no', Trump says 'yes you will', Zelensky says ok but need a ceasefire, EU says what about some new sanctions? Trump says 'what sanctions?' EU says 'oh no', Trump says he might go to Istanbul, Zelensky says 'so am I but I'll only talk to Putin', Putin says he's not going, Trump says he's not going either, EU says 'what about the sanctions? - we haven't actually got any ready now that Monday's ultimatum deadline just rushed past with a whoosh' – let's try for Thursday instead then?'. Trump says 'what sanctions?' Witkoff issues an ultimatum of his own and warns the US might 'walk away' (for the 50th time so far this month) if there's no negotiated settlement.
Putin stops laughing long enough to say of the west, 'you're all idiots'. 'They buy tickets then refuse to go, just to spite the bus conductor'.
Thank you for watching this week's episode of SOAP.
The only clear point is the total lack of understanding as to how bad the Ukrainian military position is by the US/EU/UK. This indicates they're automatically believing Ukrainian and their own propaganda rather than looking rationally at the available information.
The Ukrainian army chief says they can no longer replace their losses on the battlefield.
The Ukrainian army chief said their latest recruitment drive aiming for 30,000 only got 500.
The Ukrainian army chief and the NYT admit Russia has 200,000 troops on standby and are recruiting 30,000 to 40,000 volunteers every month, far more than even Ukrainian's projected Russian loses.
Meanwhile Ukraine says they're killing 10x more Russians despite a 10x disadvantage in long range fires that all agree are responsible for over 80% of casualties.
This undisputed fact would indicate that actually Russians are killing 10x more Ukrainians and that the Ukrainian figures are pure projection (projecting their own casualty rate onto the Russians).
Therefore, without a huge influx of trained and equipped men from outside Ukraine the Ukrainian army will collapse if negotiated terms are not reached soon. You would have to be mentally paralysed by propaganda not to realise this.
The latest published analysis of EU/UK capabilities says they could only muster 25,000 to send.
The US is adamant they will not send any troops at all.
And as is obvious from looking at the maps, the Ukraine army, even at it's height couldn't do more than punch a temporary hole in the Russian defences while Russia has been pushing the Ukrainians backward across the entire 2000 km battlefront for over a year.
Zelensky is waiting for a miracle, the EU/UK just want to keep Russia and the US apart for as long as possible and the US have so many negotiating teams with differing views they just keep tripping over each other.
And so this conflict will most likely be determined on the battlefield resulting in a Ukrainian collapse probably before the end of the year.
The Russians will then claim, unopposed, everything up to the Dnieper River including the cities of Kiev and Odessa.
Hard to see how this won't happen, hard to see how it can't without Ukraine rapidly coming to negotiated terms.
The curious thing is how did Ukraine get here? Ukraine, as a proxy with next to no financial or manufacturing capacity of it's own, was never supposed to get locked into a long-term war of attrition as it could never win such a war against a far larger adversary.
UKRAINE RUSSIA WAR: Balance of Power / Lt Col Daniel Davis & Steve Jermy
