The biggest problem the Russians face is that neither Ukraine, nor the Europeans, nor the Americans seem to have any understanding of how real diplomacy is done.
Zelensky jumps all over the place depending on what Trump has just said while Trump himself tends to agree with whoever he last spoke to. The Europeans just hang onto the propaganda narrative no matter how often reality jumps up to slap them in the face.
The Russians meanwhile have stuck to the same position for literally years and have sat and watched the west march up and down totally ignoring it despite tripping over it repeatedly.
Watching these western leaders try diplomacy is like watching clowns in a never ending slapstick comedy routine.
Zelensky still wants the war to continue for personal survival reasons.
Macron and co want the war to continue to keep Russia and the US as far apart as possible. They're terrified Russia and the US will patch things up and become buddies again leaving Europe all alone.
Trump now has moved to side with Kellogg and Rubio having turned away from Witkoff and Vance. A big mistake believing that Russia is weakening despite all the evidence indicating Russia is actually much stronger than when they started and are still getting stronger.
Ukraine's chances ended first with the failure of sanctions and then with the failure of the 2023 summer offensive. Since then Ukraine has steadily been getting weaker. The longer they delay in negotiating terms the worse those terms will be.
There is nothing Ukraine can do to turn things around, they must run out of recruits soon and terms are always going to be better than an inevitable collapse, just ask the Germans re; 1945.
But Zelensky's not interested in saving Ukraine, he won't be living there after the war after all, and as said, he needs the war to continue, for the time being at least, for his own reasons of personal safety.
Reminder that Zelensky's insistence of an unconditional ceasefire before negotiations is a strategy. Pausing here will strip Russia of it's momentum and leverage while enabling Ukraine time to try to level the battlefield and so put them in a better position for the negotiations.
Putin's insistence for unconditional negotiations before a ceasefire negates Zelensky's ploy and reiterates Russia's commitment to peace (whether true or not).
And so what's up next?
The negotiations are a run around for both Zelensky and Putin and will probably go nowhere.
Ukraine continues backwards while Russia is giving a final polish to it's 2 new fully trained and equipped armies and a full stockpile of their new Oreshnik missiles, all ready just in time for their expected summer offensive.
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The difference between an 'SMO' and a 'War' is a legal distinction. War gives the commander-in-chief far greater autonomy while many decisions made during an SMO require security council approval.
Putin & Zelensky to Meet Face-to-Face in Istanbul? or will Zelensky Sink Talks Again?
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