I have repeatedly heard the opinion that Orbit is very late and goes into a uniquely stable state when it is already clear that the market has turned around. This is actually a misconception. If we remember that Orbit is a mathematical model of the market, then it should correspond to what is currently happening on the market. And if the market is in a range, then the screenface is also in an ambiguous (unstable) state.
As an example, I would like to cite the current situation with gold.
The picture shows H1 TF. Please note that at the moment the Orbit displays a situation, the starting point for which is the upper extremum at the level of 2009.31, formed on October 30, as the Initial Value section tells us. That is, the current screenface presents us with the situation regarding the last 15 days. This price action is shown by the large yellow arrow.
We see that the screenface is not uniform. Elements that tell us that we are in a downward movement are highlighted in red; signs of an upward price reversal are indicated in green. Numbers from 1 onwards show the significance of a given element (in my understanding), where 1 is the maximum significance.
So let's analyze. Which indicates to us a downward movement...
1 - Main Arrow - directed downward, yellow in color, which indicates that the bearish stage is in full swing.
2 - Spike Event Arrow (sister of the Main Arrow) - shows you exactly what you should do when you are at the peak of the pullback. In this case, sell possible maximums.
3 - The Orbit Arrow is purple (the most negative color) indicates that the 8n partition (in this version, it is 8n in the Fractal Patterns section that is the separator between the trend and the pullback) has absolutely negative dynamics. That is, n-7n are fractals of pullbacks, 8n-9n are fractals of the main direction of price movement.
4 - Singularity of flows - a red icon with a yellow border - tells us that the downward flows in all three time perspectives (short-term, medium-term and long-term) have good homogeneity and are directed in one direction.
5 - the Red Market icon speaks for itself - complete bearish market control
6 - Medium-Term and Long-Term ordinals are red and are directed clearly downwards - they show the generalized results of the Price Action section. To paraphrase in other words, in the medium and long term there is a clear downward movement.
7. The Price Dynamics section has a large red arrow (the main movement) and a green one inside, which means an upward pullback against the background of a downward movement.
Now let's look at the green elements...
1 - CMD 1 - in a transitional state, that is, we have 6n TT + 6n Cy green, which tells us that a new “risk-free space” may soon open for entry into buys. But for now it is in a transitional state because the 6n TT is green, when it turns orange we will have an open “risk-free space” for buys.
2 - L+1 ordinal has turned into the “Extreme Low” state, which tells us that the lower extremum has been identified by Orbit and this will be a significant point (if not a reversal, then at least we will have a significant pullback from this bottom)
3 - Power Icon has changed its color to light green, which indicates the presence of significant upward flows in the short term. The approximate current value of the path traveled by the price in the short-term ascent is about 60%. If the upward movement continues significantly, we will have a dark green icon for the medium term and yellow for the long term.
4 - the readings of the Short-Term Ordinal are completely in unison with the Power Icon. The green circle indicates that in the short term we have at least an upward pullback. Multidirectional arrows inside say that at the moment this short-term upward pullback is in a range, the red arrow ahead means that a downward pullback should first follow, then the ascent will resume if it is not interrupted by a too deep pullback. In this case, the circle will turn red.
5.6 - Range Arrow + Spot Arrow = CMD 2. Range Arrow is something like the direction of the intraday bias. The Spot Arrow is the fastest-acting arrow of the individual screenface arrows. Shows the current (momenal) price direction.
To summarize the above... Although Doji says that Orbit, in addition to a mathematical model, is an oscillator, which of the oscillators you know can give you so much information? Look at the entire downward movement of 15 days, and in relation to this, evaluate that Orbit recognized a possible reversal already now, is it too late?? In my opinion no.
Now open a clean chart of gold on H1 and just look with the experienced eye of a trader - are you ready to unequivocally state that the downward movement is fully completed? Are you ready to say that it will definitely continue and the current minimum is not the end? Personally, I can't answer these questions unequivocally. And Orbit can’t either, this is a model and it shows you all the ambiguity of the current situation. Should there be something else?
Please note that Orbit does not have a single element in its screenface - a trigger that would switch and hold its state once at the moment of a price reversal. This means that absolutely the entire screenface is subject to gradual or sudden change, depending on what the price does. Therefore, we can always say that Orbit is 100% right at every moment of time, because it is precisely this moment that is now displayed on his screenface. And how right each of us will be when using Orbit is a question for each of us
The way I described the elements of the screenface is my personal vision and understanding of them. If something is not entirely correct or accurate, Doji will correct it if he deems it necessary.
While I was writing this treatise, “red news” came out and the price shot up, but I managed to buy before the news came out. Now the screenface looks like this...
As you can see, it has turned more greener. The changes especially affected the Fractal Patterns and KSO sections.
