Ogee wrote: Tue Aug 01, 2023 8:43 pm
FT: The US plans to increase the production of ammunition from 24 to 90 thousand shells per year
EDIT: should have said 90,000 per MONTH ... by 2025. Still way short of Russian production now and of no use to Ukraine at all.
NATO still hopelessly out of touch with the realities of this conflict, As has been reported by a number of western media outlets Russia are firing 60 thousand shells PER DAY and have been for the last year and a half.
International Legion Signup (med insurance included)
1492Reminder, as Napoleon said, 'never interrupt the enemy while he's making a mistake'.
Ukraine staggers on with it's attempt at a renewed counteroffensive with the same results as the first - major loses of men and equipment. Russia remains content to let the AFU run onto Russian bayonets.
Reminder also that Russia's first objective is not the gaining of ground (they already have what they originally set out to gain) but is to destroy the Ukrainian army. After that they can go and do whatever else they want.
It was probably a surprise to most that the western world was willing to restore, train, and replace the equipment of 2 new Ukrainian armies, after the destruction of the first, at the cost of $180 Bln and the complete clearing out of NATO stockpiles. But now even NATO is admitting there is no hope of repeating that feat again.
And so the last Ukrainian army is dying having spent it's time building an attack force instead of preparing defences and so is leaving the country wide open. The next phase of this conflict is approaching, will it be Ukraine dismemberment or, finally, negotiation?
Very interesting 30 min discussion on the current state of the US intelligence service and the politicisation of the upper military causing the Biden admin's distorted view of the conflict.
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1dRJZMEmoMrGB
Ukraine staggers on with it's attempt at a renewed counteroffensive with the same results as the first - major loses of men and equipment. Russia remains content to let the AFU run onto Russian bayonets.
Reminder also that Russia's first objective is not the gaining of ground (they already have what they originally set out to gain) but is to destroy the Ukrainian army. After that they can go and do whatever else they want.
It was probably a surprise to most that the western world was willing to restore, train, and replace the equipment of 2 new Ukrainian armies, after the destruction of the first, at the cost of $180 Bln and the complete clearing out of NATO stockpiles. But now even NATO is admitting there is no hope of repeating that feat again.
And so the last Ukrainian army is dying having spent it's time building an attack force instead of preparing defences and so is leaving the country wide open. The next phase of this conflict is approaching, will it be Ukraine dismemberment or, finally, negotiation?
Very interesting 30 min discussion on the current state of the US intelligence service and the politicisation of the upper military causing the Biden admin's distorted view of the conflict.
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1dRJZMEmoMrGB
Re: International Legion Signup (med insurance included)
1493U.S. Defense Officials have told POLITICO that the “New Push” in the Southwest of Ukraine by roughly 150,000 Western-Trained and Equipped Forces that have only recently been Deployed to the Front has been “Disappointing” and not yielded Significant Results, with an Official stating that Ukrainian Gains can be Measured in 100s of Meters. Ukraine is losing between 400 and 800 men EVEREY SINGLE DAY (KIA MIA WIA POW).
Frontline Update; (15 min, pub'd 2 hour ago
McGregor interview 40 min, (On Ukraine conflict starts 20 minutes in, pub'd 12 hour ago)
Colonel Douglas Macgregor: Ukraine collapsing - will NATO intervene?
Bye bye Ukraine - Hellooo Taiwan
1494Ukraine is likely to face the Korean scenario and the freezing of the conflict, since the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces is not producing results, - Die Welt
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been going on for 60 days, with small successes and huge losses. Kyiv will not be able to repel the Russian forces. Everything indicates that this conflict will be frozen''.
It's always hard to figure if these people are just believing their own bullshit or that they're really stupid.
To think there will be a frozen conflict is to believe that Russia can't do anything, like pretend they don't have 500,000 troops waiting behind the defences and another 500,000 assembled in Russia, and that their equipment and ammo production hasn't been geared up to keep them going for years to come.
Even some in the western press admit Russia is not going to run out of missiles or shells or men any time soon so what the f**k is anyone talking about a frozen conflict? It makes no sense, certainly not to Russia.
Meanwhile,
The catastrophic losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are announced: on average, 400 obituaries of Ukrainian soldiers are published per day
"A lot of soldiers die in Ukraine. On average, about 400 obituaries a day. November last year was the peak. About 1,100 obituaries for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were published there in one day. In total, I counted 284,000 dead," the military expert said. Ruslan Tatarinov.
The expert obtained these data from obituaries published in the Ukrainian media and social networks: "It was enough to combine these sources. Everything is clearly visible at once."
Poland still eyeing a land grab in the west of Ukraine;
'Polish authorities have declared a deterioration in their relations with Ukraine due to recent diplomatic conflicts.'
https://t.co/87wWoNoN2V
''Ukraine's military strategy and demands strain allies' patience' - CNBC
https://t.co/14YJmAcrXw
Bye bye Ukraine - Hellooo Taiwan
'Biden to Request Funding for Taiwan's Arms from Budget Allocated for Ukraine'
https://t.co/M0MY9vbBQI
"The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been going on for 60 days, with small successes and huge losses. Kyiv will not be able to repel the Russian forces. Everything indicates that this conflict will be frozen''.
It's always hard to figure if these people are just believing their own bullshit or that they're really stupid.
To think there will be a frozen conflict is to believe that Russia can't do anything, like pretend they don't have 500,000 troops waiting behind the defences and another 500,000 assembled in Russia, and that their equipment and ammo production hasn't been geared up to keep them going for years to come.
Even some in the western press admit Russia is not going to run out of missiles or shells or men any time soon so what the f**k is anyone talking about a frozen conflict? It makes no sense, certainly not to Russia.
Meanwhile,
The catastrophic losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are announced: on average, 400 obituaries of Ukrainian soldiers are published per day
"A lot of soldiers die in Ukraine. On average, about 400 obituaries a day. November last year was the peak. About 1,100 obituaries for soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were published there in one day. In total, I counted 284,000 dead," the military expert said. Ruslan Tatarinov.
The expert obtained these data from obituaries published in the Ukrainian media and social networks: "It was enough to combine these sources. Everything is clearly visible at once."
Poland still eyeing a land grab in the west of Ukraine;
'Polish authorities have declared a deterioration in their relations with Ukraine due to recent diplomatic conflicts.'
https://t.co/87wWoNoN2V
''Ukraine's military strategy and demands strain allies' patience' - CNBC
https://t.co/14YJmAcrXw
Bye bye Ukraine - Hellooo Taiwan
'Biden to Request Funding for Taiwan's Arms from Budget Allocated for Ukraine'
https://t.co/M0MY9vbBQI
Re: WW3 Countdown
1495Recent videos and the 2 below spread some light on the mismatch of information surrounding the current conflict.
A few days ago we heard that 50 US intell officers had written a letter of protest complaining the US secretary of defence Lloyd Austin was mis communicating their intel analysis, this 'spun' intel is sent to US and Ukraine political leaders and western journalists.
The result is a complete underestimation of Russian capabilities by politicians and the Ukraine forces and explains why their attacks are routinely repulsed and why they keep on with the failed strategy.
Interesting too is the complete over estimation of NATO forces, as Ritter points out below they are 'paper' armies and that the reality is that, the UK for example, having given 14 tanks to Ukraine have just 40 left in total while the UK minister of defence talks up UK joining war against Russia, laughable.
2nd video below says Russian troops reporting Ukraine resistance is weakening across the whole frontline with this last counteroffensive push failing completely, again with massive loss of life and equipment.
More news of the peace talks between US and Russia as reported in the Moscow Times where the giving up some Ukraine territory is acknowledged by the US but some demands by US/Ukraine still unrealistic.
(10 min)
(1 hour)
A few days ago we heard that 50 US intell officers had written a letter of protest complaining the US secretary of defence Lloyd Austin was mis communicating their intel analysis, this 'spun' intel is sent to US and Ukraine political leaders and western journalists.
The result is a complete underestimation of Russian capabilities by politicians and the Ukraine forces and explains why their attacks are routinely repulsed and why they keep on with the failed strategy.
Interesting too is the complete over estimation of NATO forces, as Ritter points out below they are 'paper' armies and that the reality is that, the UK for example, having given 14 tanks to Ukraine have just 40 left in total while the UK minister of defence talks up UK joining war against Russia, laughable.
2nd video below says Russian troops reporting Ukraine resistance is weakening across the whole frontline with this last counteroffensive push failing completely, again with massive loss of life and equipment.
More news of the peace talks between US and Russia as reported in the Moscow Times where the giving up some Ukraine territory is acknowledged by the US but some demands by US/Ukraine still unrealistic.
(10 min)
(1 hour)
No successes for Ukrainian writes Politico
1496There are no successes of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, writes Politico
Western media report with regret that the introduction of Ukrainian military trained in NATO countries into battle does not bring any success. The Armed Forces of Ukraine fail to break through the defenses of the RF Armed Forces in the Zaporozhye direction.
On July 31, it was reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched the second stage of the counteroffensive, using 150,000 people in three directions. It was argued that the beginning of a new stage is also indicated by the fact that Kyiv sent battalions and brigades of the full strength into battle.
At the same time, on July 30, former American intelligence officer Scott Ritter said that Ukraine had completed the counteroffensive due to failures at the front. According to Ritter, the United States ordered Kyiv to reconsider its position, as the Armed Forces of Ukraine failed to break through to the Sea of Azov and force Russia to capitulate using Western weapons.
UK Intelligence: Latest Ukraine counteroffensive failure due to ''weeds and shrubs'' apparently.
20 min sit rep on Ukraine's Plan D - swarm drone attacks on Moscow.
Ukraine Peace Talks
1497More news of the peace talks between US and Russia as reported in the Moscow Times where the giving up some Ukraine territory is acknowledged by the US but some demands by US/Ukraine still unrealistic.
As I mentioned early in the week and again yesterday there are ongoing peace talk between US and Russia. This story has now been picked up by western msm. Knowing that these days msm is controlled this means the politicos have ok the release of such info to the general public meaning that progress is being made.
Die Welt: Under pressure from the West, Kiev will negotiate with Russia next winter
GERMAN LIST CONFIDENT: MOSCOW WILL KEEP THE OCCUPIED TERRITORIES AND ESTABLISH A TEMPORARY BORDER
The FAILED counter-offensive of Kiev showed that the Ukrainian armed forces will not be able to adequately repel attacks against Russia next winter, the influential German newspaper Die Welt estimated.
At the same time, he emphasized that Kiev will be forced to negotiate with Moscow and that this will happen under pressure from the West.
Die Welt says the talks are unlikely to lead to peace, but will allow Russia to retain occupied territories and solidify the contact line, which both sides will consider a temporary border.
The conflict itself will be frozen, which will once again delay Ukraine's accession to the EU and NATO, Welt writes. In addition, the recovery of the part of Ukraine controlled by Kiev will slow down, as investors will not rush to invest in an uncertain situation.
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Situational relations between Poland and Ukraine have reached a dead end - Michał Dąbrowski
(Poland prepping for a land grab if Ukraine fractures?)
https://www.voiceofeurope.com/situation ... dabrowski/
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Austrian colonel: Ukraine lacks essential prerequisites for breakthrough
A successful offensive is always marked by a breakthrough at the operational level, and Ukrainian troops are far from that. They have advanced in the last few weeks, but it is only a few hundred meters, said Austrian colonel Markus Reisner for the German channel NTV.
Ukrainian Troops Trained by the West Stumble in Battle
Ukraine’s army has for now set aside U.S. fighting methods and reverted to tactics it knows best.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/02/us/p ... ining.html
(Ukraine never had a chance without air or artillery power, everyone should have known that from the start, why didn't they?)
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Interesting series of info graphics from the WSJ. They seem to be implying the land bridge is crucial to the Russians but forget the Russians supplied Crimea perfectly satisfactorily before the land bridge and the new road/rail bridge existed.
Selected slide below, note the near non existent gains of the last 2 months costing many thousands of Ukraine lives.
https://www.wsj.com/story/the-strategic ... 8?mod=e2tw
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Re: WW3 Countdown
1498
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- Jedidiah, Gethsemane
"Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal..."
CIA Recruiting
14992 bits of good news for Ukraine.
As their counteroffensive winds down Ukraine have started their game changing drone swarm attacks on Moscow.
And, the head of the CIA William Burns just announced they've had fantastic success in recruiting agents inside the Kremlin.
Really, secret plans revealed or just resorting to BS now?
Meanwhile recruiting in Ukraine continues as before ...
And from the Italian daily "Republika" ...
Media: Zelensky fell into the "triple trap" of Putin.
Russia has three important assets that help it defeat Ukraine.
"The Ukrainian offensive has slowed down and the West fears that it will stop completely by the end of the month.
On the side of Russia are strong defense and tactics of military generals, while at the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not learned to conduct large-scale military operations.
This could turn into a disastrous scenario for Ukraine because it will allow Russia to strengthen even more.
There has been much talk of Ukraine not doing as per the teachings of their NATO instructors but really they had no hope and at the loss of so many vehicles had to revert to their old tactics.
Earlier I read one Ukrainian soldier asked the NATO instructor how to deal with the mine fields and the instructor replied 'you just drive around them', as if. Might have worked against the Taliban but doesn't work against the Russians.
Lethal Shrubbery
1500Confirmations of previous posts.
War Monitor @WarMonitors
Ukraine has started negotiations with the USA on a bilateral agreement on the provision of security guarantees — Ukraine President’s officeMONEY INTENDED FOR UKRAINIAN ARMY IS SENT TO TAIWAN
UK Intelligence: Latest Ukraine counteroffensive failure due to ''weeds and shrubs'' apparently.
Latest footage of shrubbery overturning a Ukrainian armoured vehicle
Same tactic used by Russia since the start.
The Ukraine army is broken. (25 min)
