ChuChu Rocket wrote: Fri Apr 11, 2025 7:22 pm Key points here:

• America imported $438.9bn in Chinese goods last year (just over 3% of China’s total gross domestic product (GDP).
• The latest Trump tariffs would cause China’s GDP to drop by as much as 2.4%.
• In 2018, when Trump launched his first trade war against China, Beijing’s official GDP growth figure was 6.6%. It's currently 5.2%.

What I'd like to know is how China's 125% tarrif would effect USA? Does this mean Alibaba, TEMU and Amazon will be affected for American's? I can't find a straight answer so far

The tariffs are placed on wholesale imports, any price increases will take some time to work through the supply chain. But last time (2017/18) Chinese manufacturers covered the tariff costs themselves.

Same might not apply this time as their margins are a lot tighter now and the size of the current tariffs are big.

Probably will see some horse trading to pull it all back but Trump does seem to have bigger goals, such a the no income tax idea, so still a lot of uncertainty, hence the whipsawing particularly in stock markets.

In truth, for 200 years strong currencies simply meant buying up foreign assets.













Easter Week;

Ogee wrote: Fri Apr 11, 2025 7:39 pm USD breaks the high of 2024 and 2023;

Ah you mean EUR/USD breaks high.... so the USD is really weakened

boytoy wrote: Sat Apr 12, 2025 7:09 pm Ah you mean EUR/USD breaks high.... so the USD is really weakened

yes correct.

TRUMP EXEMPTS TECH FROM CHINA TARIFFS—APPLE BREATHES A SIGH OF RELIEF

Ogee wrote: Sun Apr 13, 2025 12:31 am TRUMP EXEMPTS TECH FROM CHINA TARIFFS—APPLE BREATHES A SIGH OF RELIEF

Why did he exempt tech on this occassion? Does that mean he exempted all tech from China or just Apple? This guy and his tariffs man

ChuChu Rocket wrote: Sun Apr 13, 2025 11:21 am Why did he exempt tech on this occassion? Does that mean he exempted all tech from China or just Apple? This guy and his tariffs man

2 competing narratives have emerged about the trade war.

The 1st narrative suggests that Trump panicked when the 10 year bond yield spiked . Bonds sell off on bad news and the bond yield rises seeking bond buyers.

This spooked Trump into backing down on the new 'rest of world' tariffs though keeping those applied to China.

The bond market is the bottom line on the state of an economy and the rising yield attracted a lot of comment. It was later revealed the Japanese banks started the US Treasury's (bonds) sell off.

Another factor to consider is that each basis point rise (0.01%) matters, especially when an interest payment is due on several trillion worth of bonds (debt), as happens to be the case.

Though the yield price did spike up last week note on the chart (bottom of post) the price is still considerably lower than it's January high.


The 2nd narrative comes from the Trump team who say it was all a cunning plan to isolate China who is the real target of the tariff wars. Now all trade between the US and China has effectively ceased and the Trump team expect new negotiations on trade agreements to commence.

They already started this process by the announcement yesterday that tech products from China will be exempt of tariffs (Apple imports 80% of it's products from China). The Trump team will be looking to China to start reciprocating.

The US does have long term grievances with China such as trade imbalance, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft etc.

The bottom line is that the US does import a lot from China but most of which can be sourced from elsewhere. China on the other hand is a huge potential market for goods if the US actually starts manufacturing again.

Currently the US sends blueprints to China who make the product to send back to the US while stealing the plans and make cheap copies under a different name to sell on the world market.

This has been going on since the 1980s and some Chinese politicians have expressed that this arrangement is only fair given China being a poor country afterall.



There is a 3rd narrative that says the whole trade war was planned by the US to be a rehearsal for the sudden outbreak of a hot war with China?

Even a lot of economists don't get the tariff war, Trump at the end of the day is just a hard nosed New York deal maker and he's definitely not stupid.

China make a lot of money from the US exporting stuff to them that the US could find elsewhere, just not quite as cheap.

There is important tech stuff China exports to the US like Chinese assembled iPhones (Apple had better re-think about where that's done in future). That's the stuff Trump is letting through with lower tariffs at the moment.

Forget the other side of the trade equation, China can get most of the stuff it imports from the US elsewhere as well.

The problem for China is it's been manoeuvred into a dead end. It has just lost, in a flash, the biggest buyer of their manufactured goods.

The US is a massive market for all the 'stuff' China makes, and the loss of the US market is not replaceable.

So either China negotiates or it has lost it's largest trading partner, permanently.

The US may have some supply chain glitches early on as it sources it's T-shirts and socks from elsewhere, and they might be a bit more expensive.

The US might see some increase in inflation but that'll help reduce the debt problem and, very importantly, the inflation won't be on essentials like food and gas etc, like the inflation the idiot Biden caused.

We knew the justice systems had been taken over by the Oligarchy, here's who and how;

CHINA POSTS STRONG GDP—BUT TARIFFS BITE HARD ENOUGH TO SPARK STIMULUS DEMANDS