FOMC Today

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From Pepperstone

The holy trinity – the three markets to drive cross-asset volatility

Pricing for the December FOMC meeting

So part of the reaction will be seen in the pricing for the Dec FOMC meeting which currently sits at 4.41% – traders can see this on TradingView by typing ‘100-ZQF2023’ into the navigator. A dovish reaction would be to see this headed below 4.4%, where we would expect the USD to sell off and gold and equities to rally. A push towards 4.50% would see USDJPY push towards 150 and EURUSD through 0.9800.

Terminal fed funds rates pricing

We also look at the terminal rates pricing – this is the peak of market expectations for where the Fed can take rates, which currently sit in the May to June 2023 period at 5% – we can type in ‘100-ZQK2023’ into the navigator. A firm break above 5% would send risk lower.

US 2-year Treasury

I also look at US real rates and 2yr Treasuries (US02Y) closely as a driver for risk assets – If yields rise then we should see the NAS100 and gold fall and the USD spike, especially if we take out the 21 Oct high of 4.63% – conversely if yields fall/price rise then the USD will likely fall.





The Fed Will Blow Up The Economy

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''The Mainstream Is Increasingly Accepting The Possibility That The Fed Will Blow Up The Economy.''


''From 1972 to 1980 the US witnessed a stagflationary avalanche that resulted in the Fed eventually raising interests rates to 20%. This led to the recession of 1981-1982 and an unemployment rate of around 11%. The effects of the recession persisted through the rest of that decade. ''

''It's important to note that in the 1980s the country had not just witnessed tens of trillions of dollars in fiat stimulus created by the central bank on top of a doubling of the national debt in the span of eight years. In other words, the economic conditions today are much worse than they were back then.''


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/mai ... ow-economy
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Mickey Abi

Re: UK PM phone hack

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Ogee wrote: Wed Nov 02, 2022 8:12 pm Russia considering 'further steps' after accusing UK of carrying out Nord Stream 'terrorist act'


https://www.gbnews.uk/news/russia-consi ... act/382643

''Moscow will present materials and evidence of London's involvement in the attack on Sevastopol to the British ambassador-Russia Foreign Ministry''







(see vid posted above which says that Russia have evidence that she did)

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Jedidiah

Re: News Ahead

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⚠️ U.S. does not see any signs that Russia is making preparations to use nuclear weapons, White House spokesman John Kirby said on Wednesday, adding that he had no specific comment on a New York Times report about such Russian discussions.

- Reuters

(either the NYT just keeps making **** up or they know more than the US intel services 🤔)


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