Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#172
ImpLaNT wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:13 pm
I return the stop to its first place at 1680.
If there is a loss, then I close the thread and recognize that the system is not viable.
Really - that's like saying: I know - because I watch price move sideways - that I am in a ranging market but I behave as if price were in a trend.
The system is working (for some people) but not in a ranging market.
I wrote it before but that wasn't specific enough for you:
a) don't trade in a ranging market (using a trend-trading-system: wait for a trend to materialize: always)
b) use a different method in a ranging market

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#173
josi wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:34 pm

Really - that's like saying: I know - because I watch price move sideways - that I am in a ranging market but I behave as if price were in a trend.
The system is working (for some people) but not in a ranging market.
I wrote it before but that wasn't specific enough for you:
a) don't trade in a ranging market (using a trend-trading-system: wait for a trend to materialize: always)
b) use a different method in a ranging market
Good. I agree with you. Suppose I want to trade in a trend, not in a range. Can you advise when exactly should I open a position? Just do it with specific examples (at least 2-3 examples). Can you agree to attach a template with explanations? If so, do it right in this thread. I hope it will be useful to many people, not only to me ...

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#174
I think you must be joking (or trying to make a fool of me) because it has been described one million times:
So, if you're really interested & don't know already you have to start reading.
1st step: choose a higher TF as reference: i. e. H1
a) you have clearly defined limits of price (needn't be horizontal, could also be - like Gold just now - slightly up or down)
b) you wait for the price to clearly break out of the range (that price in our example has lower and lower highs before it breaks to the downside tells you in advance where the bias may be).
c) mostly (not always) the limit of the range will be retested by price (what Walter Peters in "Naked Forex" calls the "last kiss")
this will establish your Directional Bias

2nd step: you move to your trading TF and wait for clear signs that the BO isn't a fake-out (i.e. retest of limit; then price moves in the direction of the directional bias established; in this case: down
You enter your postion: sell
Of course your indicators (i. e. EMAs must confirm the directional bias)

So first you have a range (on higher or reference TF), then you have a breakout, then you normally have a retest, then you enter a trending movement on your trading TF.
During the trending move you must have (in this case) lower lows and lower highs. As long as these are established by price you are in a downtrend, once the distance between them becomes smaller the downtrend weakens, once it disappears the move may be over (or it at least pauses - i. e. is in a range).
As you can see Xard - with his borders - is basically emulating this anyway - to make it easier to see ranges and breakouts (and following trend moves: when you have something like steps going either up or down on the border-lines)
USDCNHH1.png
USDCNHM15.png
USDCNHM15.png

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#175
For Josi...

All this I naturally saw and read a million times. And what you just wrote does not carry any specifics. Again, common words. The essence of the question is that you never know and will not know until you see how sharp or not the movement will be when the price leaves this range. Here is an example of my entry from the point of view of H1 ... The price has left the range ??? The answer is yes!

Screenshot_49.png


And yet .... All these ranges are very nice and beautiful to draw on historical data, when everything is obvious. Elliott Wave Theory also has the same flaw. There, too, an unequivocal and correct alignment is visible only when the cycle has ended and another has begun. I wonder where and how you would enter the market in real time ....


Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#176
ImpLaNT wrote:
Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:25 pm
For Josi...

All this I naturally saw and read a million times. And what you just wrote does not carry any specifics. Again, common words. The essence of the question is that you never know and will not know until you see how sharp or not the movement will be when the price leaves this range. Here is an example of my entry from the point of view of H1 ... The price has left the range ??? The answer is yes.

And yet .... All these ranges are very nice and beautiful to draw on historical data, when everything is obvious. Elliott Wave Theory also has the same flaw. There, too, an unequivocal and correct alignment is visible only when the cycle has ended and another has begun. I wonder where and how you would enter the market in real time ....
I wrote a long post but somehow it got lost when submitted.
I don't want to do it all again because there are so many levels on which - I think - you avoid reflection.
To cut it short and end it all:
You conveniently left out the most important part (of my description) which happens BEFORE you enter any trades:
As I said it is called: directional bias: if your screenshot-example were TF D1 and you traded this sort of NON-Breakout on M15 you'd have a very decent swing.
You know this, of course, and you left it out because you don't want to take it into account.
Because this would mean you'd have to do something outside your setup (it would tell you also that the system/setup you use now is not good enough in establishing a reliable directional bias).
Well, gues what: after you will have abolished your setup and traded Xard's new setup you will still have to define a very, very, very reliable directional bias BEFORE you ever enter a trade - and this will have to be (at least most of the time) on a higher TF of your choosing (depending on how long you want your swings to last).
As long as your trending system does not provide you with a reliable directional bias it won't work (except for luck, of course).
You may enter late (because you are for example risk averse) and exit early (because you are for example nervous) and your system might still be profitable if your directional bias is correct most of the time and you only enter after a trend is established on a HIGHER TIMEFRAME.

see also: viewtopic.php?f=578480&t=8472845&start=870
Post 874

PS: I won't go into all the reasons why your example isn't really a convincing breakout in the first place (because you know this anyway) and would not have been traded.
There is actually no rule that you have to take a trade even if the setup isn't convincing.

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#177
The uptrend has turned into a range (pause or end of trending move?):
will there be a breakout upwards out of this range?
we don't know but if there is one we should be prepared to trade it on M15.
GBPJPYH4 BO u poss.png

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#178
more risky because at the moment we are clearly in an uptrend (higher highs and higher lows):
will price eventually break below this support?
we don't know but if it does we should trade a scalp down to the next EMA on M15 and then watch and see what happens next.
GOLDH4.png

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#180
as you can see GBPJPY tried to break out on H4 but finds it very hard to follow through.
So you check lower TFs in order to see how strong the buyers look.
On M15 you have divergence.
The example (below) shows the weakness of buyers on M1 - so: most likely this attempt will fail and we don't enter a trade.
The situation may always change, of course, and then we would reconsider but for now this is what happens:
GBPJPYM1.png


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