ImpLaNT wrote: Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:25 pm
For Josi...
All this I naturally saw and read a million times. And what you just wrote does not carry any specifics. Again, common words. The essence of the question is that
you never know and will not know until you see how sharp or not the movement will be when the price leaves this range. Here is an example of my entry from the point of view of H1 ... The price has left the range ??? The answer is yes.
And yet .... All these ranges are very nice and beautiful to draw on historical data, when everything is obvious. Elliott Wave Theory also has the same flaw. There, too, an unequivocal and correct alignment is visible only when the cycle has ended and another has begun. I wonder where and how you would enter the market in real time ....
I wrote a long post but somehow it got lost when submitted.
I don't want to do it all again because there are so many levels on which - I think - you avoid reflection.
To cut it short and end it all:
You conveniently left out the most important part (of my description) which happens BEFORE you enter any trades:
As I said it is called:
directional bias: if your screenshot-example were TF D1 and you traded this sort of NON-Breakout on M15 you'd have a very decent swing.
You know this, of course, and you left it out because you don't want to take it into account.
Because this would mean you'd have to do something outside your setup (it would tell you also that the system/setup you use now is not good enough in establishing a reliable directional bias).
Well, gues what: after you will have abolished your setup and traded Xard's new setup you will still have to define a very, very, very reliable directional bias BEFORE you ever enter a trade - and this will have to be (at least most of the time) on a higher TF of your choosing (depending on how long you want your swings to last).
As long as your trending system does not provide you with a reliable directional bias it won't work (except for luck, of course).
You may enter late (because you are for example risk averse) and exit early (because you are for example nervous) and your system might still be profitable if your directional bias is correct most of the time and you only enter after a trend is established on a HIGHER TIMEFRAME.
see also:
viewtopic.php?f=578480&t=8472845&start=870
Post 874
PS: I won't go into all the reasons why your example isn't really a convincing breakout in the first place (because you know this anyway) and would not have been traded.
There is actually no rule that you have to take a trade even if the setup isn't convincing.