USD/CAD Weekly Forecast April 10-14
USD/CAD diverged from its inverse correlation with oil prices in the past week as the pair rose while WTI crude oil prices posted a second consecutive week of gains.
The currency pair struggled at resistance in the second half of the week at 1.3437 which marks the highest monthly close in over a year. Although there was a sharp decline from the level, strong late day buying on Friday lifted the pair higher to close with a weekly bullish engulfing candle.
The momentum driven rally in the early week combined with Friday’s price action suggests the pair is turning higher within the uptrend seen from lows posted at the end of January. A sustained break of resistance at 1.3437 would provide further evidence of a bullish trend as the level proved to be a hurdle this past week and as a break would also erase losses that resulted from the March Fed meeting.
The USD/CAD pair fell during the week, but turned around to show signs of support at the 1.33 level again. If we can break above the 1.36 handle, this market will go much higher. We have been grinding to the upside, and I think that will continue to be the theme. That’s not to say that there isn’t a significant amount of resistance at the 1.35 region, but I think that it’s only a matter of time before we break above there. This will be exacerbated if the oil markets fall apart, and I expect that to happen over the longer term.
The BoC was more optimistic in their monetary policy statement and removed near-term consideration of a rate cut in lieu of improved economic data. However, increased concerns over US protectionism were the highlight of the testimony to the Senate committee the next day, resulting in a sharp reversal to erase losses as a result of the bank meeting.
Thursday’s reversal led to a bullish engulfing candle on a daily chart, although there was little follow through the next day with most markets closed in observance of Good Friday. Nevertheless, the pair scaled above some important levels suggesting the potential for a further recovery.
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/04 ... ril-17-21/
Support at 1.3283 is considered important in USD/CAD as it has held it higher since the middle of March with the exception of a brief dip following last week’s BoC meeting.
The currency pair reached a low of 1.3292 prior to turning higher and has closed above 1.3283 on a 4-hour basis, printing a bullish hammer reversal candlestick in the process.
Read more : http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/04 ... ain-break/
The headline year-on-year rate declined to 1.6% from 2.0% previously compared with expectations of a 1.8% rate while the core year-on-year rate declined to 1.3% from 1.7%.
Food prices rose 0.1% on the month with a 1.9% decline over the year.
Transport prices declined 0.6% on the month as gasoline prices dipped lower, but there was a 4.6% increase in prices over the year.
Shelter prices rose 2.2% over the year, although the monthly increase in prices was held to 0.1% which suggests some
Read more : http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/04 ... ws-to-1-6/
The USD/CAD pair initially fell during the week but found enough support at the 1.3250 level to turn things around and form a very impulsive looking green candle. If we can break above the 1.36 handle, we are then free to go much higher, possibly as high as 1.45. Because of this, this might be the “sleeper trade” of the next few months. A break above 1.36 has me buying hand over fist, especially if the oil markets start to roll over again, which look likely to do so.
Source : https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/arti ... sis-402951
The pair pushed sharply higher to trendline resistance on Tuesday and broke above it on Wednesday, boosted by a sharp drop in oil prices.
Friday’s disappointing Canadian CPI data triggered a break to fresh weekly highs although the rally was capped slightly ahead of a declining trendline that connects the November high with the highest daily close in December.
USD/CAD is near important resistance while oil prices are hovering above critical support, suggesting of a pullback in the week ahead.
Read more : http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/04 ... ril-24-28/
Prior 3.3%. Revised to 3.0%
Inventories 0.2% vs -0.2% prior
The gap lower was a result of the French election which has triggered a sharp fall in the dollar. The trade-weighted dollar index (DXY) gapped below a confluence of support today which suggests further losses for the currency. A horizontal level at 99.43 had kept the index higher since December and was in close proximity of a well-respected rising trendline from a low posted in May. While there has been a consolidation following the initial drop at the open, recoveries may be short-lived after the significant technical break.
Read more : http://www.economiccalendar.com/2017/04 ... e-to-fall/