Re: EUR/USD

1231
Intrest 1 wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 6:22 am
It is a bit more complicated now, isn't it?
1. Price closed above TL d (strong candle up, rejection of last low)
2. retest of old lows (no lower low - as yet)
As far as I can see, we are now in a range that could either become a trend reversal or break down to reenter downtrend.
As long as we are in a range, you "should" (if it is clearly defined) wait for price to reach extremes (high & low) and then find trades on much lower TFs (after price was rejected).
But what do I know?
[On the monthly you could make a case that the downtrend is still intact and it is "only" a retracement. But most analysts will tell you that you need 3 touches for a TL to be established and if you use this as criterion, then you find the case is not at all clear right now.
A retracement can develop into a trend reversal - you only know in hindsight (and have to be prepared).
Most breakouts (up or down) fail (and you have to be prepared)]
Right now, it seems: 49% are short positions, 51 % are long positions: this - sort of - stresses the point I was making.
Fibo-wise: price (on the weekly) is still in an up, has retraced below 61.8, only to move up to 50 and be rejected there twice...
[But if you trade below H1 you may regard all this as irrelevant, and rightly so, except for the "relative" equilibrium between buyers & sellers during a range, which often means randomness of price moves and therefore a high likelihood of being "whipsawed".]
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Re: EUR/USD

1232
josi wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:11 pm It is a bit more complicated now, isn't it?
1. Price closed above TL d (strong candle up, rejection of last low)
2. retest of old lows (no lower low - as yet)
As far as I can see, we are now in a range that could either become a trend reversal or break down to reenter downtrend.
As long as we are in a range, you "should" (if it is clearly defined) wait for price to reach extremes (high & low) and then find trades on much lower TFs (after price was rejected).
But what do I know?
[On the monthly you could make a case that the downtrend is still intact and it is "only" a retracement. But most analysts will tell you that you need 3 touches for a TL to be established and if you use this as criterion, then you find the case is not at all clear right now.
A retracement can develop into a trend reversal - you only know in hindsight (and have to be prepared).
Most breakouts (up or down) fail (and you have to be prepared)]
Right now, it seems: 49% are short positions, 51 % are long positions: this - sort of - stresses the point I was making.
Fibo-wise: price (on the weekly) is still in an up, has retraced below 61.8, only to move up to 50 and be rejected there twice...
[But if you trade below H1 you may regard all this as irrelevant, and rightly so, except for the "relative" equilibrium between buyers & sellers during a range, which often means randomness of price moves and therefore a high likelihood of being "whipsawed".]
Image
If the USA considers the upcoming rate hike insufficient, the euro will go even lower.
If the USA cancels the upcoming rate hike, then the euro and all other currencies will go up sharply
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Re: EUR/USD

1233
Intrest 1 wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:30 pm If the USA considers the upcoming rate hike insufficient, the euro will go even lower.
If the USA cancels the upcoming rate hike, then the euro and all other currencies will go up sharply
these are fundamental considerations; I don't do fundamentals.
everything is in price...

Re: EUR/USD

1234
josi wrote: Mon Feb 21, 2022 7:32 pm these are fundamental considerations; I don't do fundamentals.
everything is in price...
OK.
as soon as you hear that the FRS is canceling the rate hike, then feel free to play your assumptions up.
and until this happens, the euro will fall to certain limits




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