Re: EUR/USD
Posted: Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:11 pm
It is a bit more complicated now, isn't it?
1. Price closed above TL d (strong candle up, rejection of last low)
2. retest of old lows (no lower low - as yet)
As far as I can see, we are now in a range that could either become a trend reversal or break down to reenter downtrend.
As long as we are in a range, you "should" (if it is clearly defined) wait for price to reach extremes (high & low) and then find trades on much lower TFs (after price was rejected).
But what do I know?
[On the monthly you could make a case that the downtrend is still intact and it is "only" a retracement. But most analysts will tell you that you need 3 touches for a TL to be established and if you use this as criterion, then you find the case is not at all clear right now.
A retracement can develop into a trend reversal - you only know in hindsight (and have to be prepared).
Most breakouts (up or down) fail (and you have to be prepared)]
Right now, it seems: 49% are short positions, 51 % are long positions: this - sort of - stresses the point I was making.
Fibo-wise: price (on the weekly) is still in an up, has retraced below 61.8, only to move up to 50 and be rejected there twice...
[But if you trade below H1 you may regard all this as irrelevant, and rightly so, except for the "relative" equilibrium between buyers & sellers during a range, which often means randomness of price moves and therefore a high likelihood of being "whipsawed".]
