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Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#862
friend4you wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:33 pm
amdudus wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:01 pm
I just talked about the specific indicator and the reason, if you wonder, why your browser opens that ad page and that I don't like that the person changed free systems to add his pop-ups on every ex4-file. There are few, similiar others on that board too and it's just not a good behaviour.
That has nothing to do with you or your contributions here, amdudus. I just asked about the origin of only this indicator weeks ago and I published my ideas about it. I can't understand, what made you so angry, but if my posts are not helpful, my time is precious, too.
I want to offer you the most sincere apologies.Indeed, English is not my native language and many translators translate to me.He then led me astray.Sorry again. Glad your posts.
P.S. My son, who speaks English better than his native, has done the translation, and I'm still red.

Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#863
CYCLE ACTION
Identify A Cycle And Take Advantage Of It

Finally, some of the bricks of the market have somehow formed in my head and “enlightenment” has come once again. :) Now it seems to me that this method is one of the most adequate and profitable in the forex market. So, a little theory.
The theory of cycles in forex states that all price graphs have a cyclical pattern and design a typical sequence of waves that tend to repeat every certain amount of time.
If we take a graph in a growing trend, for example, and put vertical lines intersecting the relative minimums, we note that there are dividing waves generated by the price of the form of the first part being up and the second part being down.
Each cycle that follows the other must be made up of a quantity of candles almost similar to the other nearby cycles. Usually the average number of candles in a loop is 60/65, but of course this is just a statistic figure, there are cycles of 25/30 candles and there may also be cycles of 100/110 candles each.
Recognizing and identifying the cycles in a chart helps increase the chances of making the correct predictions.
Examples of cycle theories are the Elliot wave and Dow Theory.
Ralph Nelson Elliot discovered this wave principle around late 1920s. He was able to figure out the repetitive cyclic wave motions of stock prices, and concluded that stocks or even financial markets movements are neither random, nor chaotic. Ralph Elliot equally based his work off the Dow theory, which also viewed price from the perspective of waves. The Elliot wave theory was later proved to be accurate by Benoit Mandelbrot’s work in fractal geometry.
Price is usually made up of trends and corrections, which are referred to as impulse and corrective waves in Elliot waves.
Impulse waves are made up of five price movements, which includes three in the trend direction (Waves 1, 3, and 5) and two against the trend (Waves 2 and 4).
The three waves in the direction of the trend are impulse waves, which contain three waves too, while the correction waves contain 3 wave each.
Correction waves are usually 3, in an ideal situation. Two waves in the direction of the correction, which on their own are smaller impulse waves, and one against the main correction wave direction as shown in the diagram below.
I outlined my understanding in the form of a trading strategy, the template of which you see below.
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Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#864
CYCLE ACTION
Identify A Cycle And Take Advantage Of It

No matter what stage the market is in, cycles still occur. Our task is to identify them, and the sooner the better. More precisely, determine when the cycle began and when it is finished and the opposite cycle has begun. Naturally, knowing this, we should enter not according to the trend, but according to a cycle coinciding with the trend, if there is one. In the case of accumulation or consolidation, our task is slightly different.
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Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#865
amdudus wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:02 am
CYCLE ACTION
Identify A Cycle And Take Advantage Of It

No matter what stage the market is in, cycles still occur. Our task is to identify them, and the sooner the better. More precisely, determine when the cycle began and when it is finished and the opposite cycle has begun. Naturally, knowing this, we should enter not according to the trend, but according to a cycle coinciding with the trend, if there is one. In the case of accumulation or consolidation, our task is slightly different.
Dear amdudus, thank you for your precious explanations. Do you combine the top down analysis (H4>H1>M15) with this cycles method? If you do, Could you please give us a couple of examples? In order for us to understand how you look at the market and what you look for.

Please, keep up with the enlightenment!


Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#866
Leomart wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:30 am
amdudus wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:02 am
CYCLE ACTION
Identify A Cycle And Take Advantage Of It

No matter what stage the market is in, cycles still occur. Our task is to identify them, and the sooner the better. More precisely, determine when the cycle began and when it is finished and the opposite cycle has begun. Naturally, knowing this, we should enter not according to the trend, but according to a cycle coinciding with the trend, if there is one. In the case of accumulation or consolidation, our task is slightly different.
Dear amdudus, thank you for your precious explanations. Do you combine the top down analysis (H4>H1>M15) with this cycles method? If you do, Could you please give us a couple of examples? In order for us to understand how you look at the market and what you look for.
Please, keep up with the enlightenment!
So far, "enlightened" thoughts have not left our heads; we will continue.
Do you combine the top down analysis (H4> H1> M15) with this cycles method? Of course yes.
Perhaps the best model of cycles that are everywhere and always is a Russian toy matryoshka.
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Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#867
CYCLE ACTION
Identify A Cycle And Take Advantage Of It

So, let's continue. Let's dwell on PRICE ACTION. I don’t need to comment on the pictures below. We believe that PRICE ACTION methods are included in the more general concept - CYCLE ACTION.
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Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#868
CYCLE ACTION
Identify A Cycle And Take Advantage Of It

Before we proceed to the simpler rules of work in the style of CYCLE ACTION, I have to "load" you with some theoretical information that you need to know.
The Wyckoff Method
Richard Demille Wyckoff (1873–1934) was an early 20th-century pioneer in the technical approach to studying the stock market. He is considered one of the five “titans” of technical analysis, along with Dow, Gann, Elliott and Merrill. At age 15, he took a job as a stock runner for a New York brokerage. Afterwards, while still in his 20s, he became the head of his own firm. He also founded and, for nearly two decades wrote, and edited The Magazine of Wall Street, which, at one point, had more than 200,000 subscribers. Wyckoff was an avid student of the markets, as well as an active tape reader and trader. He observed the market activities and campaigns of the legendary stock operators of his time, including JP Morgan and Jesse Livermore. From his observations and interviews with those big-time traders, Wyckoff codified the best practices of Livermore and others into laws, principles and techniques of trading methodology, money management and mental discipline.
From his position, Mr. Wyckoff observed numerous retail investors being repeatedly fleeced. Consequently, he dedicated himself to instructing the public about “the real rules of the game” as played by the large interests, or “smart money.” In the 1930s, he founded a school which would later become the Stock Market Institute. The school's central offering was a course that integrated the concepts that Wyckoff had learned about how to identify large operators' accumulation and distribution of stock with how to take positions in harmony with these big players. His time-tested insights are as valid today as they were when first articulated.
This article provides an overview of Wyckoff's theoretical and practical approaches to the markets, including guidelines for identifying trade candidates and entering long and short positions, analysis of accumulation and distribution trading ranges and an explanation of how to use Point and Figure charts to identify price targets. Although this article focuses exclusively on stocks, Wyckoff's methods can be applied to any freely-traded market in which large institutional traders operate, including commodities, bonds and currencies.
A Five-Step Approach to the Market
The Wyckoff Method involves a five-step approach to stock selection and trade entry, which can be summarized as follows:
1. Determine the present position and probable future trend of the market. Is the market consolidating or trending? Does your analysis of market structure, supply and demand indicate the direction that is likely in the near future? This assessment should help you decide whether to be in the market at all and, if so, whether to take long or short positions. Use both bar charts and Point and Figure charts of the major market indices for Step 1.
2. Select stocks in harmony with the trend. In an uptrend, select stocks that are stronger than the market. For instance, look for stocks that demonstrate greater percentage increases than the market during rallies and smaller decreases during reactions. In a downtrend, do the reverse – choose stocks that are weaker than the market. If you are not sure about a specific issue, drop it and move on to the next one. Use bar charts of individual stocks to compare with those of the most relevant market index for Step 2.
3. Select stocks with a “cause” that equals or exceeds your minimum objective. A critical component of Wyckoff's trade selection and management was his unique method of identifying price targets using Point and Figure (P&F) projections for both long and short trades. In Wyckoff's fundamental law of “Cause and Effect,” the horizontal P&F count within a trading range represents the cause, while the subsequent price movement represents the effect. Therefore, if you are planning to take long positions, choose stocks that are under accumulation or re-accumulation and have built a sufficient cause to satisfy your objective. Step 3 relies on the use of Point and Figure charts of individual stocks.
4. Determine the stocks' readiness to move. Apply the nine tests for buying or for selling (described below). For instance, in a trading range after a prolonged rally, does the evidence from the nine selling tests suggest that significant supply is entering the market and that a short position may be warranted? Or in an apparent accumulation trading range, do the nine buying tests indicate that supply has been successfully absorbed, as evidenced further by a low-volume spring and an even lower-volume test of that spring? Use bar charts and Point and Figure charts of individual stocks for Step 4.
5. Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market index. Three-quarters or more of individual issues move in harmony with the general market, so you improve the odds of a successful trade by having the power of the overall market behind it. Specific Wyckoff principles help you anticipate potential market turns, including a change of character of price action (such as the largest down-bar on the highest volume after a long uptrend), as well as manifestations of Wyckoff's three laws (see below). Put your stop-loss in place and then trail it, as appropriate, until you close out the position. Use bar and Point and Figure charts for Step 5.
Wyckoff's "Composite Man"
Wyckoff proposed a heuristic device to help understand price movements in individual stocks and the market as a whole, which he dubbed the “Composite Man.”
“…all the fluctuations in the market and in all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
Wyckoff advised retail traders to try to play the market game as the Composite Man played it. In fact, he even claimed that it doesn't matter if market moves “are real or artificial; that is, the result of actual buying and selling by the public and bona fide investors or artificial buying and selling by larger operators.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks, section 9M, p. 2)
Based on his years of observations of the market activities of large operators, Wyckoff taught that:
The Composite Man carefully plans, executes and concludes his campaigns.
The Composite Man attracts the public to buy a stock in which he has already accumulated a sizeable line of shares by making many transactions involving a large number of shares, in effect advertising his stock by creating the appearance of a “broad market.”
One must study individual stock charts with the purpose of judging the behavior of the stock and the motives of those large operators who dominate it.
With study and practice, one can acquire the ability to interpret the motives behind the action that a chart portrays. Wyckoff and his associates believed that if one could understand the market behavior of the Composite Man, one could identify many trading and investment opportunities early enough to profit from them.
Wyckoff Price Cycle
According to Wyckoff, the market can be understood and anticipated through detailed analysis of supply and demand, which can be ascertained from studying price action, volume and time. As a broker, he was in a position to observe the activities of highly successful individuals and groups who dominated specific issues; consequently, he was able to decipher, via the use of what he called vertical (bar) and figure (Point and Figure) charts, the future intentions of those large interests. An idealized schematic of how he conceptualized the large interests' preparation for and execution of bull and bear markets is depicted in the figure below. The time to enter long orders is towards the end of the preparation for a price markup or bull market (accumulation of large lines of stock), while the time to initiate short positions is at the end of the preparation for price markdown.
Three Wyckoff Laws
Wyckoff's chart-based methodology rests on three fundamental “laws” that affect many aspects of analysis. These include determining the market's and individual stocks' current and potential future directional bias, selecting the best stocks to trade long or short, identifying the readiness of a stock to leave a trading range and projecting price targets in a trend from a stock’s behavior in a trading range. These laws inform the analysis of every chart and the selection of every stock to trade.
1. The law of supply and demand determines the price direction. This principle is central to Wyckoff's method of trading and investing. When demand is greater than supply, prices rise, and when supply is greater than demand, prices fall. The trader/analyst can study the balance between supply and demand by comparing price and volume bars over time. This law is deceptively simple, but learning to accurately evaluate supply and demand on bar charts, as well as understanding the implications of supply and demand patterns, takes considerable practice.
2. The law of cause and effect helps the trader and investor set price objectives by gauging the potential extent of a trend emerging from a trading range. Wyckoff's “cause” can be measured by the horizontal point count in a Point and Figure chart, while the “effect” is the distance price moves corresponding to the point count. This law's operation can be seen as the force of accumulation or distribution within a trading range, as well as how this force works itself out in a subsequent trend or movement up or down. Point and Figure chart counts are used to measure a cause and project the extent of its effect. (See “Point and Figure Count Guide” below for an illustration of this law.)
3. The law of effort versus result provides an early warning of a possible change in trend in the near future. Divergences between volume and price often signal a change in the direction of a price trend. For example, when there are several high-volume (large effort) but narrow-range price bars after a substantial rally, with the price failing to make a new high (little or no result), this suggests that big interests are unloading shares in anticipation of a change in trend.
Analyses of Trading Ranges
One objective of the Wyckoff method is to improve market timing when establishing a position in anticipation of a coming move where a favorable reward/risk ratio exists. Trading ranges (TRs) are places where the previous trend (up or down) has been halted and there is relative equilibrium between supply and demand. Institutions and other large professional interests prepare for their next bull (or bear) campaign as they accumulate (or distribute) shares within the TR. In both accumulation and distribution TRs, the Composite Man is actively buying and selling - the difference being that, in accumulation, the shares purchased outnumber those sold while, in distribution, the opposite is true. The extent of accumulation or distribution determines the cause that unfolds in the subsequent move out of the TR.
Wyckoff Schematics
A successful Wyckoff analyst must be able to anticipate and correctly judge the direction and magnitude of the move out of a TR. Fortunately, Wyckoff offers time-tested guidelines for identifying and delineating the phases and events within a TR, which, in turn, provide the basis for estimating price targets in the subsequent trend. These concepts are illustrated in the following four schematics; two depicting common variants of accumulation TRs, followed by two examples of distribution TRs.
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Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#869
CYCLE ACTION
Identify A Cycle And Take Advantage Of It
The Wyckoff Method. Part 2.

Accumulation: Wyckoff Events
PS—preliminary support, where substantial buying begins to provide pronounced support after a prolonged down-move. Volume increases and price spread widens, signaling that the down-move may be approaching its end.
SC—selling climax, the point at which widening spread and selling pressure usually climaxes and heavy or panicky selling by the public is being absorbed by larger professional interests at or near a bottom. Often price will close well off the low in a SC, reflecting the buying by these large interests.
AR—automatic rally, which occurs because intense selling pressure has greatly diminished. A wave of buying easily pushes prices up; this is further fueled by short covering. The high of this rally will help define the upper boundary of an accumulation TR.
ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the SC to test the supply/demand balance at these levels. If a bottom is to be confirmed, volume and price spread should be significantly diminished as the market approaches support in the area of the SC. It is common to have multiple STs after a SC.
Note: Springs or shakeouts usually occur late within a TR and allow the stock’s dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign unfolds. A “spring” takes price below the low of the TR and then reverses to close within the TR; this action allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to acquire additional shares at bargain prices. A terminal shakeout at the end of an accumulation TR is like a spring on steroids. Shakeouts may also occur once a price advance has started, with rapid downward movement intended to induce retail traders and investors in long positions to sell their shares to large operators. However, springs and terminal shakeouts are not required elements: Accumulation Schematic 1 depicts a spring, while Accumulation Schematic 2 shows a TR without a spring.
Test—Large operators always test the market for supply throughout a TR (e.g., STs and springs) and at key points during a price advance. If considerable supply emerges on a test, the market is often not ready to be marked up. A spring is often followed by one or more tests; a successful test (indicating that further price increases will follow) typically makes a higher low on lesser volume.
SOS—sign of strength, a price advance on increasing spread and relatively higher volume. Often a SOS takes place after a spring, validating the analyst’s interpretation of that prior action.
LPS—last point of support, the low point of a reaction or pullback after a SOS. Backing up to an LPS means a pullback to support that was formerly resistance, on diminished spread and volume. On some charts, there may be more than one LPS, despite the ostensibly singular precision of this term.
BU—“back-up”. This term is short-hand for a colorful metaphor coined by Robert Evans, one of the leading teachers of the Wyckoff method from the 1930s to the 1960s. Evans analogized the SOS to a “jump across the creek” of price resistance, and the “back up to the creek” represented both short-term profit-taking and a test for additional supply around the area of resistance. A back-up is a common structural element preceding a more substantial price mark-up, and can take on a variety of forms, including a simple pullback or a new TR at a higher level.
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Re: МТ4 Trading Systems: DARK ENERGY FOREX SYSTEM

#870
CYCLE ACTION
Identify A Cycle And Take Advantage Of It
The Wyckoff Method. Part 3.

Accumulation: Wyckoff Phases
Phase A: Phase A marks the stopping of the prior downtrend. Up to this point, supply has been dominant. The approaching diminution of supply is evidenced in preliminary support (PS) and a selling climax (SC). These events are often very obvious on bar charts, where widening spread and heavy volume depict the transfer of huge numbers of shares from the public to large professional interests. Once these intense selling pressures have been relieved, an automatic rally (AR), consisting of both institutional demand for shares as well as short-covering, typically ensues. A successful secondary test (ST) in the area of the SC will show less selling than previously and a narrowing of spread and decreased volume, generally stopping at or above the same price level as the SC. If the ST goes lower than that of the SC, one can anticipate either new lows or prolonged consolidation. The lows of the SC and the ST and the high of the AR set the boundaries of the TR. Horizontal lines may be drawn to help focus attention on market behavior, as seen in the two Accumulation Schematics above.
Sometimes the downtrend may end less dramatically, without climactic price and volume action. In general, however, it is preferable to see the PS, SC, AR and ST, as these provide not only a more distinct charting landscape but a clear indication that large operators have definitively initiated accumulation.
In a re-accumulation TR (which occurs during a longer-term uptrend), the points representing PS, SC and ST are not evident in Phase A. Rather, in such cases, Phase A resembles that more typically seen in distribution (see below). Phases B-E generally have a shorter duration and smaller amplitude than, but are ultimately similar to, those in the primary accumulation base.
Phase B: In Wyckoffian analysis, Phase B serves the function of “building a cause” for a new uptrend (see Wyckoff Law #2 – “Cause and Effect”). In Phase B, institutions and large professional interests are accumulating relatively low-priced inventory in anticipation of the next markup. The process of institutional accumulation may take a long time (sometimes a year or more) and involves purchasing shares at lower prices and checking advances in price with short sales. There are usually multiple STs during Phase B, as well as upthrust-type actions at the upper end of the TR. Overall, the large interests are net buyers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of acquiring as much of the remaining floating supply as possible. Institutional buying and selling imparts the characteristic up-and-down price action of the trading range.
Early on in Phase B, the price swings tend to be wide and accompanied by high volume. As the professionals absorb the supply, however, the volume on downswings within the TR tends to diminish. When it appears that supply is likely to have been exhausted, the stock is ready for Phase C.
Phase C: It is in Phase C that the stock price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply, allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. As noted above, a spring is a price move below the support level of the TR (established in Phases A and B) that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers (bears). In Wyckoff's method, a successful test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position.
The appearance of a SOS shortly after a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. As noted in Accumulation Schematic #2, however, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the TR without a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of Phase C can be challenging.
Phase D: If we are correct in our analysis, what should follow is the consistent dominance of demand over supply. This is evidenced by a pattern of advances (SOSs) on widening price spreads and increasing volume, as well as reactions (LPSs) on smaller spreads and diminished volumes. During Phase D, the price will move at least to the top of the TR. LPSs in this phase are generally excellent places to initiate or add to profitable long positions.
Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. New, higher-level TRs comprising both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by large operators can occur at any point in Phase E. These TRs are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.
Phase E: In Phase E, the stock leaves the TR, demand is in full control and the markup is obvious to everyone. Setbacks, such as shakeouts and more typical reactions, are usually short-lived. New, higher-level TRs comprising both profit-taking and acquisition of additional shares (“re-accumulation”) by large operators can occur at any point in Phase E. These TRs are sometimes called “stepping stones” on the way to even higher price targets.
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