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EUR/USD

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Re: EUR/USD

#501
mlawson71 wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:22 am
I have a long position open, I really hope it will continue rallying. :shock:
I opened mine at 1.1380. I am considering closing mine as well, I really dislike keeping positions open for that long.


EURUSD rally facing tougher resistance

#502
mlawson71 wrote:
Fri Mar 15, 2019 4:06 am

I opened mine at 1.1380. I am considering closing mine as well, I really dislike keeping positions open for that long.
Noice! Did you close your long trade yet Mlawson? :thumbup:

EUR/USD rally facing tougher resistance

EURUSD-1-hour.png

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the EUR/USD pair is likely to slip back to the low 1.1200 region as it appears to be baulking just ahead of the 55 and 100 day ma at 1.1366/68.

Key Quotes

“We have our doubts that the market will at this juncture retest the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-18 advance at 1.1186 but Intraday Elliott wave counts remain negative There is now a considerable amount of resistance above the market extending up to the 200 day ma at 1.1486. Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.1366/68 the 55 and 100 day ma, which guard the 1.1420 end of February high and the 1.1425 downtrend. Below 1.1185/75 lies the 1.1110, the May 2017 low and the 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-r ... 1903150620 (article)
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Re: EUR/USD

#504
mlawson71 wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:28 am
Yes, I closed the long. I hope it wasn't a mistake to do so.
Nice way to finish your trading week. Don't worry you can jump in again next week if it retraces :idea:
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Re: EUR/USD

#505
ChuChu Rocket wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 6:36 pm
mlawson71 wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 2:28 am
Yes, I closed the long. I hope it wasn't a mistake to do so.
Nice way to finish your trading week. Don't worry you can jump in again next week if it retraces :idea:
I closed it at a bit of a loss, but I guess the loss could have been bigger so I shouldn't complain.


EUR/USD: US-DE 2-yr bond yield spread hits 11-month low

#506
EUR/USD: US-DE 2-yr bond yield spread hits 11-month low in EUR-positive manner

  • EUR/USD's bounce from key 61.8% Fib support is backed by narrowing of US-German (DE) bond yield spreads.
  • The two-year yield spread has hit lowest since April 2018 and could drop further ahead of the Fed, helping EUR/USD climb the immediate resistance zone of 1.1335-1.1350.

EUR/USD clocked a high of 1.1344 on Friday, the highest level since March 4, as weak US data pushed Treasury yields lower.

The US Empire State manufacturing index released on Friday showed that manufacturing activity has cooled sharply this month. The index came in at 3.7, down from 8.8 and missed expectation of 10. In response, the 10-year treasury yield fell below 2.6 percent, signaling a continuation of the fall from the recent high of 2.77 percent.

Further, the spread between the two-year US and German government bond yields fell below 300 basis points - the first since April 2018.

As a result, the greenback took a beating across the board and could slide even further today, as the two-year yield spread will likely narrow further on dovish Fed expectations.

The US central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, but signal a reduced inclination to hike rates by lowering the projected path on interest rates to one hike in 2019 and one more in 2020.

So, the EUR could soon scale the immediate resistance zone of 1.1335-1.1350. That range has capped upside for the last three trading days.

However, with markets pricing in a 2020 rate cut, the bar of (dovish) expectations is set high and the dollar will likely pick up a strong bid if the central bank takes note of the recent improvement in the risk sentiment.

US-German two-year yield spread
US-DE-636884789562782857.PNG
eurusd-technical-levels.jpg

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-u ... 1903180408
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EURUSD: Ready to move on the Fed, but beware Brexit

#507
EUR/USD Forecast: Ready to move on the Fed, but beware Brexit

  • EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range, consolidating the gains.
  • The Fed is set to shed light on future policy and rock markets, but Brexit is also significant.
  • The technical picture remains quite bullish.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1350 in a narrow range of fewer than 25 pips. Such limited volatility is to be expected on Fed Day. The US Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged but to provide more details on its pledge to remain "patient" on interest rates.

This March meeting features new forecasts on growth, inflation, employment, and most importantly, interest rates. Back in December 2018, the central bank signaled two rate increases in 2019. Since then, it has vowed to remain patient due to global headwinds while praising the local economy.

While markets ruled out a rate hike this year, Fed officials have not closed the door on it. The Fed will likely downgrade the projection, but there is a material difference between one increase and zero.

In addition, the FOMC may provide more details about the balance sheet reduction program. Will it end this year? In the previous meeting, Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues said they will tackle it. They may provide more details now. The other forecasts, the statement, and Powell's press conference will all play a role in shaking currencies.

The Fed decision is at 18:00 GMT and until then, quite a few developments on Brexit can occur. The latest is that the UK PM Theresa May is set to ask for a short Brexit extension, to the dismay of the pro-Remain camp and the European Union. The topic may be discussed only next week, just before the current Brexit date, March 29th.

The news sent the pound lower and it could impact the euro later on.

In the old continent, German PPI dropped by 0.1% and did not impact the common currency. The Fed and Brexit remain in the limelight.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR_USD (40)-636886709253341698.png

EUR/USD is trading in a narrow range, capped by 1.1362 which was the two-week high achieved on Tuesday and 1.1340 seen earlier in the day. Upside Momentum is petering out and the Relative Strength Index is drifting to neutral once again. The pair trades above the 200 Simple Moving Average which comes out around 1.1325, another support line.

All in all, the technical picture is mildly bullish.

High resistance awaits at 1.1410 and 1.1420 which were peaks around the beginning of March and late February, respectively. Further above, 1.1485 awaits.

Looking down, 1.1310 was a temporary cap on the way up last week and also coincides with the 50 SMA. 1.1295 and 1.1275 were support lines on the way up.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-u ... 1903201007
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Re: EUR/USD

#508
Well, it is still rallying and I am still fretting over that long position I closed. I am considering opening a new one.

Re: EUR/USD

#509
mlawson71 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:31 am
Well, it is still rallying and I am still fretting over that long position I closed. I am considering opening a new one.
Haha same. Yeah i've been scalping tidbits here and there on the way up. Don't forget FOMC news is in 3 hours bro :!:
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Re: EUR/USD

#510
Jimmy wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:45 am
mlawson71 wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:31 am
Well, it is still rallying and I am still fretting over that long position I closed. I am considering opening a new one.
Haha same. Yeah i've been scalping tidbits here and there on the way up. Don't forget FOMC news is in 3 hours bro :!:
:!:
I managed to trade the pullback from 1.1450 at least though I missed the rally. Oh well, at least I got something out of it.



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