I'm wondering what is THE BEST way to determine trend direction?

What i mean is that there's no universal settings for each indicator - the volatility changes all the time, and we can't have the same one settings for our trend indicator all the time. We should always fit them. Maybe there's a way to adjust our setting to changing volatility?

Fresh_Prince wrote:I'm wondering what is THE BEST way to determine trend direction? 

What i mean is that there's no universal settings for each indicator - the volatility changes all the time, and we can't have the same one settings for our trend indicator all the time. We should always fit them. Maybe there's a way to adjust our setting to changing volatility?

Its never been that easy or simple. If it was then everyone would be doing it. All that indicators do is paint a mental picture of what you "think" might happen in the future. However the market will always test your best strategy and resolve. Like the old saying goes:

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” ~John Maynard Keynes

For me, i look at the daily and weekly candle close SR. Being aware of engulfing candle patterns, large pin bars, etc. Using channels/trendlines to detect price bouncing off, Bollinger Bands W and M formations. My current fave setup is 25+200 EMA's on 1H and Daily + MTF WT's. Looking for a certain pattern to develop.

Fresh_Prince, it's always good to ask the right questions. Standard volatility indicators lag heavily and when most of the rush already is over they show you that there was a possibility to enter. That's why many traders like momentum indicators as MACD and Stoch and their distributions. As you mentioned correctly there is no THE SETTING for an indicator and it changes for tf, pair and so on. So is there something that works independently on tf and pair and if so, what could it be?

FXSurf, but indicators don't paint the picture in your mind, you do. You have to interpret the indicator as well, that's why many beginners prefer signals, arrows that just say Buy or Sell, till they realize that's wasted money and time.

Krelian99 wrote:Fresh_Prince, it's always good to ask the right questions. Standard volatility indicators lag heavily and when most of the rush already is over they show you that there was a possibility to enter. That's why many traders like momentum indicators as MACD and Stoch and their distributions. As you mentioned correctly there is no THE SETTING for an indicator and it changes for tf, pair and so on. So is there something that works independently on tf and pair and if so, what could it be? .

I dunno. Maybe some adaptive indicators, which can adjust volatility.

Adjusting volatility? Why and how you would do that? To the momentum indicators, adaptive or cycle-based or what else need parameters and they may still be debatable. Often you have ultra-long trends or short trends and your trend indicator fools around. So, simple question: What is a trend?

Krelian99 wrote:Adjusting volatility? Why and how you would do that? To the momentum indicators, adaptive or cycle-based or what else need parameters and they may still be debatable. Often you have ultra-long trends or short trends and your trend indicator fools around. So, simple question: What is a trend?

Trend is simply a cycle. Some moves in the cycle could be with big amplitude, sometimes it's low amplitude.

In this case we can say that ther're no trends or flats, - just cycles. Simple as that.

That's why we have to predict volatility. Maybe with some extrapolation tools. Forecasting volatility could be a decision.

hi Krelian

I made a way but not 100% accuracy , can try or develop this method.

average of trend zero level to the highest bar / 2 = look front bar value is the reveral trend starts.
sample

 

Krelian99 wrote:Fresh_Prince, it's always good to ask the right questions. Standard volatility indicators lag heavily and when most of the rush already is over they show you that there was a possibility to enter. That's why many traders like momentum indicators as MACD and Stoch and their distributions. As you mentioned correctly there is no THE SETTING for an indicator and it changes for tf, pair and so on. So is there something that works independently on tf and pair and if so, what could it be?

FXSurf, but indicators don't paint the picture in your mind, you do. You have to interpret the indicator as well, that's why many beginners prefer signals, arrows that just say Buy or Sell, till they realize that's wasted money and time.

Very well said. My trading improved immensely when I stopped chasing price and only waited for certain conditions/patterns to appear. Then when they did, have orders at the ready. Hardest thing to do is sitting on your hands.

Fresh_Prince wrote: Trend is simply a cycle. Some moves in the cycle could be with big amplitude, sometimes it's low amplitude. In this case we can say that ther're no trends or flats, - just cycles. Simple as that. That's why we have to predict volatility. Maybe with some extrapolation tools. Forecasting volatility could be a decision.

No, a cycle consists of an accumulation (the buying phase), an uptrend, an distribution (the selling phase) and a downtrend (normally quicker than the uptrend - "Up with the stairs and down with the elevator"). Four phases, right? Like in the cycle of a internal combustion engine one phase ends and the next phase can begin. The first phase (like its correspondent the buying phase) sucks in hot air and fuel comes in (premixed or locally separated) and what happens then? The expansion ( here uptrend) starts. But not without a reason or a sign. What is/are the sign/s for our starting uptrend? And is/are here the sign/s for downtrends the same? (yes)

FXSurf wrote: Very well said. My trading improved immensely when I stopped chasing price and only waited for certain conditions/patterns to appear. Then when they did, have orders at the ready. Hardest thing to do is sitting on your hands.

Sounds good.

FXSurf wrote: Very well said. My trading improved immensely when I stopped chasing price and only waited for certain conditions/patterns to appear. Then when they did, have orders at the ready. Hardest thing to do is sitting on your hands.

hi
can you share your contions/patterns that you followed!