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NZD news

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NZD/USD Forecast June 12

#52
The New Zealand dollar was volatile during the session on Friday, as we continue to hover about the 0.72 level. We were remarkably quiet during the day, and I believe that the market is trying to consolidate in this area to build up enough pressure for the move higher. After all, we been in a nice uptrend for the last several sessions, and perhaps a little bit of a breather is needed to build up the momentum necessary to go to the 0.72 level. A pullback from here could offer a bit of a buying opportunity, as the 0.7150 level below would be supportive as well. I believe that the market will find value hunters every time we pull back, and longer-term will continue to offer an opportunity to pick up the New Zealand dollar in bits and pieces to build a larger position.



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NZD: RBNZ To 'Complain' About Strong NZD This Week; Where To Target?

#54
Expect the RBNZ to 'complain' about strong NZD again at its policy meeting on Wednesday.

The NZD TWI has appreciated 3.5% since it last met in May. Yet verbal intervention may not hit the NZD for long given that the external environment is positive and NZ CPI is back on target.

RBNZ have a long tradition of complaining about NZD strength and occasionally threaten intervention - yet core global risk trends are a far larger determinant of the core NZD story

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NZD/USD Holds Above Support Despite A Stronger Dollar

#55
The New Zealand dollar was the strongest major currency as of the European close, outpacing all of its major counterparts including the dollar which has seen a firm bid since yesterday’s Asian session.

The US dollar index (DXY) retreated in late day trading yesterday on less hawkish comments from Fed member Evans but turned sharply higher in the Asian session. The subsequent rally has erased earlier losses and shows DXY trading at a one-month high.

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No change expected from RBNZ but NZD vulnerable

#56
Bank of America Merrill Lynch on today's RBNZ meeting

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to stay on hold on Thursday.

"No change is expected to policy. But in our view there is a more convincing case for the RBNZ to consider shifting the policy bias toward the normalization of record low interest rates ahead of Australia. There is stronger economic momentum in New Zealand, a better fiscal position that will allow greater pro-cyclical infrastructure spending, improving terms of trade and notably better consumer sentiment than Australia," BofAML argues.

Trade-wise, BofAML recommends long NZD/JPY in the medium-term and is also comfortable selling AUD/NZD on rallies given the likely medium-term divergence in economic paths.

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RBNZ announcement - on hold (as expected)

#57
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand was expected to keep rates unchanged, they have
Official Cash Rate (OCR) stays at 1.75%
  • Major challenges remain with on-going surplus capacity and extensive political uncertainty
  • Core inflation and long-term bond yields remain low
  • Monetary policy is expected to remain stimulatory in the advanced economies, but less so going forward
  • The trade-weighted exchange rate has increased by around 3 percent since May, partly in response to higher export prices. A lower New Zealand dollar would help rebalance the growth outlook towards the tradables sector.
  • Growth outlook remains positive, supported by accommodative monetary policy, strong population growth, and high terms of trade ... Recent changes announced in Budget 2017 should support the outlook for growth
  • The increase in headline inflation in the March quarter ... effects are temporary ... will bring future headline inflation to the midpoint of the target band over the medium term.
  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.
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NZD/USD: Bullish Setup Intact Against A Weekly Close Below 0.7205

#58
NZD/USD outlook remains bullish with significant upside risk above 0.7330/50 target.

Bullish weekly and monthly closes in May have laid a strong foundation and a series of bullish MT momentum triggers highlight an increasingly positive environment.

A weekly close above 0.7330/50 will imply that the uptrend has much more to do on a multi-week to multi-month basis.

Only a weekly close below 0.7205 would place the immediate uptrend at risk of correction

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NZD/USD Edges Back Afer Rallying Into Key Resistance

#59
NZD/USD extended higher today but retreated from resistance in late day trading to give back most of the day’s gain.

The pair was under pressure in early trading as the dollar was seen firmly bid at the European open, however, softer than expected US data caused the dollar to weaken which led to a surge higher in NZD/USD.

New Zealand Trade Surplus Narrows More Than Expected to $103M in May

#60
New Zealand’s trade surplus narrowed more than expected in May, government data showed on Tuesday.

The merchandise trade balance narrowed to NZ$103 million in May, from a revised $536 million surplus the month before, Statistics New Zealand said. Analysts in a median estimate called for the surplus to narrow to $420 million.



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