Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

Fundamental Market Analysis for November 11, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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For the euro, the main counterweight to the strong US dollar remains the ECB's readiness to curb inflation. On Tuesday, Joachim Nagel stated there were solid grounds for raising rates in December. However, Philip Lane linked further decisions to the pass-through of energy costs into wages and other prices. Such signals support the euro but do not imply a pre-agreed acceleration of tightening.

American data provided a clearer signal: consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October against an expected 0.3%. Christopher Waller also advocated for an FRS rate hike in December. The combination of data and statements strengthened demand for the dollar as investors revised their expectations for borrowing costs in the US. New reasons are now needed to weaken this argument.

Part of the US advantage is already reflected in yesterday's pair decline, so extrapolating that magnitude onto Wednesday would be premature. Lower energy costs would support European business, and stronger ECB signals could help the euro recover. While the market revises US rates upward, the base scenario for EURUSD allows for further moderate declines.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1165, SL 1.1185, TP 1.1120

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for November 12, 2026 BTCUSD

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BTCUSD: BUY 74000, SL 72000, TP 95000.



Nothing significant or interesting has happened with Bitcoin yet. The asset continues to remain under pressure but is trying not to drop even lower.

For this reason, the scenario previously considered remains relevant. It is expected that the corrective decline took the form of a triple zigzag and has completed.

Therefore, at the moment, preparation for a strong impulsive rally is underway.

Thus, it makes sense to consider buying at current market levels with a potential upward target in the 95000 area.

Investment idea: BUY 74000, SL 72000, TP 95000.

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The dollar approached 160 yen. What could stop the USDJPY rally

By the morning of November 12, the dollar had closely approached the 160 yen mark, rising to approximately 159.93 — a high not seen in over two months. Japan's Deputy Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura described the recent currency movements as too rapid and recalled the yen purchases made in summer, one of which Tokyo carried out jointly with Washington. Following his comments, the dollar retreated to the session low, then recovered some losses and traded around 159.70. Buyers continue to be supported by expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.

In August, we identified the 160 level as a benchmark to assess how long the effect of the summer intervention would last. In the first sessions after publication, USDJPY remained below 160, but by the end of August it crossed this level again, reaching 160.39 on September 2. Now the market is testing this level again following US inflation data coming in above forecasts.

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Why Tokyo is speaking about the exchange rate again

At the end of July and beginning of August, Japan's Ministry of Finance spent approximately 15.4 trillion yen buying yen. At that time, USDJPY retreated from its July high of 163.99 and, at the peak of the yen's strengthening, fell to 155.20. This episode explains why even Mimura's warning caused dollar buyers to step back temporarily.

Japanese authorities also have an internal reason to monitor the exchange rate. According to the Bank of Japan, import prices converted into yen rose by 24.8% year-on-year in October. The weaker the yen, the more expensive overseas purchases become for Japanese companies, making it harder for them to contain rising wholesale prices.

Why the dollar held near 160

US consumer prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October against a forecast of 0.3%. After the release, traders became more confident about a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. As long as US assets offer higher yields, the interest rate differential supports demand for the dollar against the yen. Although the summer intervention sharply reversed the pair's trend, by the end of August the dollar's yield advantage helped it return to 160.

According to analysts FreshForex, in the next few sessions USDJPY may break through the 160 mark and test 160.40, the area of the September 2 high. Such a scenario is supported by expectations of a Fed rate hike and the dollar's rapid recovery after Mimura's comments. Near 160, prepare for sharp exchange rate swings — even a new warning from Tokyo could quickly reverse the pair.

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