EURUSD:
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Moody's decision to maintain France's rating has weakened one of the near-term risks for the euro. On Friday, the rating remained at Aa3, although the outlook is still negative. After expectations of a downgrade, this gives the European currency reason to recover. However, budget disagreements and high borrowing costs continue to limit confidence in French assets.
The beginning of the week is also accompanied by a decline in US bond yields. This reduces the interest rate attractiveness of the dollar and helps EURUSD. The market mainly expects the Fed and ECB to maintain rates at upcoming meetings, so attention shifts to further signals from regulators. A pause by the Fed itself does not necessarily mean a refusal to raise rates subsequently.
Weak October business activity data in France remind us of the vulnerability of the regional economy. Therefore, improved sentiment following the rating decision does not eliminate all reasons for caution. A resumption of rising US yields or debt tension could bring pressure back on the euro. As long as these risks do not intensify, the combination of local relief and a weaker dollar supports the EURUSD growth scenario.
Trading idea: BUY 1.1220, SL 1.1195, TP 1.1275
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