Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | October 2, 2026

XAUUSD: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00

Gold starts the week under pressure from high US Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following the September rate hike, the market is particularly sensitive to PCE inflation and employment data: strong figures can support the dollar and limit the metal's attractiveness.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand and may cap declines, but currently yield to monetary factors. With high yields and hawkish Fed expectations persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards moderate downward pressure on XAUUSD.

Trade Idea: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00

#SP500: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660

For the US market, the key factor for the week remains the cost of money. US 10-year bond yields remain near multi-year highs, and the market allows for another Fed rate hike. This makes company valuations more sensitive to PCE, employment, and business activity data.

Demand for the technology sector and steady corporate earnings expectations continue to support the index. However, expensive borrowing and the risk of renewed yield growth limit room for a broad rally. Given the current backdrop, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trade Idea: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660

#BRENT: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00

Brent enters the week with an elevated geopolitical premium after a quick resolution between the US and Iran once again came into question. Risks around the Strait of Hormuz persist, and new disruptions could quickly intensify supply concerns and support oil prices.

A restraining factor has been the recovery in Middle East exports: Saudi Arabia and other producers' shipments rose noticeably in September. This limits upside potential but does not eliminate the risk of new logistical disruptions. With tensions persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards buying #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 29, 2026 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 82350, SL 83200, TP 74500.



The continuation of the upward movement in the considered trading asset seems to be postponed indefinitely. This is due to the beginning of a corrective decline, which Bitcoin entered after several unsuccessful attempts to resume growth.

In this case, the impulse at this stage of development can be considered complete. It is now worth paying attention to short trades. The target of the movement within this correction could be the minimum of wave (iv), which will be slightly updated, and the price will immediately start moving back up.

Thus, there is a potentially interesting short trade.

Investment idea: SELL 82350, SL 83200, TP 74500.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 30, 2026 GBPUSD

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP volume quarter-on-quarter

GBPUSD:
The pound is approaching the European session near three-month lows, although the domestic backdrop in the UK does not appear unequivocally weak. The market anticipates a more hawkish trajectory from the Bank of England due to inflationary pressures, and statements on fiscal discipline have partially supported British assets. These factors limit the pace of GBP/USD decline but have not yet formed a sustained bullish momentum for the pound.

The key external factor remains the divergence between high yields in the US and the more vulnerable valuation of British assets. The dollar is supported by strong US economic data and expectations of another Fed rate hike this year. John Williams' statement reduced the likelihood of immediate tightening in October, but the market still awaits confirmation from inflation and employment data.

For GBP/USD, the picture looks more balanced than for the euro: the Bank of England can contain pressure on the pound, but the overall dollar momentum remains stronger. Given the already realized decline, selling potential is limited, so the base scenario assumes moderate continuation of the move, unless US statistics provide grounds for a significant revision of Fed expectations.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3240, SL 1.3270, TP 1.3180

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Oil back near $100: U.S. reserves at their lowest since 1982

The oil market has once again approached a key psychological level. #BRENT is trading around $99.70, recovering after recently falling into the $96–97 range. At the same time, the fundamental backdrop remains tense: U.S. strategic petroleum reserves have fallen to 283.8 million barrels — the lowest level since October 1982, while the situation around the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose a risk of supply disruptions.

What is supporting oil prices right now:

• U.S. oil reserves are at their lowest level in more than 40 years. The ability to quickly offset major supply disruptions with additional releases from strategic reserves has become significantly more limited.
• The Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is still far from a final resolution, so the risk of disruptions to oil supplies continues to be reflected in prices.
• Alternative logistics are more expensive. Exporters have to rely on more complicated transportation and transshipment routes, increasing costs and supporting crude prices.
• Negotiations are simultaneously limiting the upside. Any signs of a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran quickly bring sellers back into the market. As a result, price action remains volatile: several dollars of gains can be followed by an equally rapid correction.

It is precisely this uncertainty that is keeping #BRENT within a broad range. Over the past few sessions, the price has fallen to around $96, climbed back above $100, and then corrected again. This shows that the market has not yet settled on a clear direction, but buyers continue to return actively on dips.

According to FreshForex analysts, the key range for #BRENT right now is $97–101. If oil remains mostly within this range through the beginning of October and does not establish itself below $97, this would indicate that demand is holding up after each correction. In that case, a decisive move above $101 could push the price first toward the $103–105 area and, if tensions surrounding supplies persist, potentially open the way toward $106 and higher. For now, low U.S. reserve levels and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to leave room for a significant move higher, rather than simply fluctuations around the $100 level.

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for October 1, 2026 BTCUSD

BTCUSD: SELL 82850, SL 84300, TP 77000.

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Bitcoin continues its desperate resistance. This has once again delayed the emergence of another downward wave of the anticipated correction.

It is likely that a downward movement will occur today after all. It may turn out that the formed downward wave will become a full-fledged final one for the zigzag correction. After this, price growth will resume.

However, it is necessary to monitor how events develop subsequently. For now, it is recommended to consider opening a sell trade at current market prices.

Investment idea: SELL 82850, SL 84300, TP 77000.

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Micron Hits Record Highs, but the Stock Barely Rises


Micron (#Micron) released a strong quarterly earnings report and confirmed that demand for memory used in artificial intelligence systems remains high. However, the market reaction was much more muted than might have been expected after such results.

In trading on September 30, #Micron shares rose above $1,082 but failed to break through $1,083 and closed the session around $1,066. No significant new momentum emerged after the earnings report either. For traders, this is an important signal: good news is already largely priced into the company’s valuation, so the market now needs increasingly strong catalysts for the rally to continue.

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What matters now for #Micron and #NQ100:

• #Micron has hit resistance around $1,080–1,083. Buyers have approached the upper boundary several times but have so far failed to break and hold above it. This area is now becoming the nearest resistance level.
• $1,050 remains the first significant support level. As long as the stock holds above it, the current price action can be viewed as consolidation following a strong rally. A move below $1,050 would increase the likelihood of a deeper profit-taking phase.
• #NVIDIA remains an important part of the same story. Strong demand for memory used in AI servers confirms that investment in computing infrastructure is continuing. This supports not only #Micron but also the major manufacturers of artificial intelligence hardware.
• #NQ100 is holding above 30,000 points. The index closed the previous session around 30,400, maintaining its position near record highs. As long as the technology index remains above 30,000, overall interest in the artificial intelligence sector remains strong.

The situation is particularly interesting because the industry’s fundamental backdrop remains strong, while #Micron’s share price has stopped reacting sharply to positive news. This means the market has moved from simply anticipating business growth to more closely assessing whether future results can exceed already-high expectations.

According to FreshForex analysts, the base-case scenario for #Micron remains further growth. As long as the stock holds above $1,050, the current consolidation can be viewed as preparation for another attempt to break through the $1,083 area. Another argument supporting buyers is that Micron has already secured agreements covering a large portion of its HBM memory output for 2027, meaning the company has secured demand in advance for one of the most supply-constrained and profitable products used in AI servers. A sustained break above $1,083 could open the way toward $1,100–1,120, while #NQ100 remaining above 30,000 points would provide additional support for this scenario.

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