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Re: Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

111
Analysis of margin levels for September 10, 2026 XAUUSD

XAUUSD: SELL 4392.60-4447.80, TP1-4337.40, TP2-4183.70.

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Long-term trend: flat. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4380.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

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Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4395.00-4413.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 08.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4392.60.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4447.80.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 08.09.2026–4337.40.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-4183.70.

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Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4392.60-4447.80, Take Profit 1–4337.40, Take Profit 2–4183.70.

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Re: Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

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Copper Nears Record Highs Again: The Rally Continues


Copper is once again at the center of attention in the commodities market. On Tuesday, CUCUSD rose to around 6.80, almost returning to the highs seen at the beginning of August. Sellers failed to trigger any significant correction afterward: during the current session, prices are holding around 6.79, remaining very close to the levels reached.

At the same time, the global benchmark confirmed the strength of the move. On September 8, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose above $14,700 per tonne, setting a new all-time high. This shows that the rally in CUCUSD is part of a broader global copper market move.

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What is supporting copper prices:
  • Metal supply remains limited. The market is increasingly concerned that mining companies will not be able to increase production quickly enough.
  • The US is actively increasing imports. In July, copper shipments from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the US reached a record 53,290 tonnes, while total US imports exceeded 220,000 tonnes in a single month for the first time. Traders are trying to redirect more metal to the US in advance amid the risk of new import tariffs.
  • Power grids and new technologies require more and more metal. Copper remains one of the key materials for electricity networks, electric vehicles and data centers. Rising infrastructure investment is supporting long-term demand.
  • Chinese industry continues to see strong external demand. In August, China’s exports increased by 25% year-on-year, while high-tech exports rose by 42.9% during the first eight months of the year. Growing shipments of electronics, electric vehicles and other technology products are supporting demand for industrial commodities, including copper.
What makes the current situation particularly notable is that the market is receiving support from two directions at once. On one side is long-term demand from the energy and technology sectors. On the other is the redistribution of physical supplies toward the US, which reduces the amount of freely available metal in other regions.

According to FreshForex analysts, the 6.60–6.80 range is becoming key for CUCUSD. Copper was trading around 6.65 just yesterday, and today it has once again approached the upper end of the range, showing that buyers remain interested. If the price holds above 6.60 over the coming days and does not return to a deeper decline by the beginning of next week, the current consolidation could be viewed as preparation for another upward wave. In this case, a breakout and sustained move above 6.80 could open the way to new local highs, and by the end of September, CUCUSD could well attempt to reach the 7.00 area.

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Re: Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 11, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fundamental support from fresh data on Japan. Wholesale inflation in August rose by 7.6% year-on-year and exceeded market expectations, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting next week. The limit on USDJPY growth remains authorities' attention to the currency market and their willingness to support its orderly functioning.

However, in the current session, the American side of the pair remains the stronger factor. Yields on US ten-year bonds have approached 5%, and the market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike next week at approximately 70%. At the same time, demand for the dollar is supported by deteriorating risk sentiment against the backdrop of expensive oil and tensions in the Middle East.

The yen rally in early September has already significantly narrowed the gap in policy assessments between the two central banks, while the last few hours have seen a recovery in the dollar. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the risk of authorities' actions limit the potential of USDJPY, so the scenario requires caution. However, ahead of the release of US inflation data, the combination of high US yields and current dollar demand maintains the advantage for moderate pair growth.

Trading idea: BUY 154.60, SL 154.10, TP 155.65

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Re: Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

114
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 14, 2026 EURUSD

EURUSD:

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The euro begins the week after the ECB raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The regulator raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50% and indicated that inflation will remain above target longer than expected. This supports the euro, but the effect of the decision is already partially priced in by the market, while rising energy costs simultaneously increase risks for the eurozone economy.

The American side of the pair received a fresher impulse following August's inflation data. Rising consumer prices strengthened expectations of an FOMC rate hike at the September 15–16 meeting, and US Treasury yields are holding near multi-year highs. This gives the dollar an advantage ahead of the regulator's decision, especially given investors' cautious risk appetite.

As a result, support from the ECB for the euro currently does not outweigh the reassessment of the Fed's trajectory. Expensive energy further complicates growth prospects for the eurozone, while the expectation of a US rate hike remains a relevant driver for the current session. Against this backdrop, the priority remains a decline in EUR/USD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1595, SL 1.1630, TP 1.1515

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Re: Market Fundamental Analysis for May 28, 2026 EURUSD

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Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 18 September 2026


XAUUSD: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00


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The main driver of the week for gold is the Fed meeting against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and a new surge in oil prices. The market assesses a high probability of an interest rate hike, while higher yields on US Treasury bonds reduce the attractiveness of the asset, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand for the metal and can restrain declines. However, as expectations for tighter Fed policy are strengthening faster than demand for safe-haven assets, the weekly fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pressure on XAUUSD.

Trading Idea: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00



#SP500: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

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For #SP500, the main event of the week will be the Fed decision: accelerating inflation and expensive oil have strengthened expectations of an interest rate hike. Higher borrowing costs and Treasury bond yields near multi-year highs increase the sensitivity of stocks to tight signals from the regulator.

A separate risk is associated with the technology sector: a new round of discussion about AI development rates has increased pressure on related companies in Asia. Strong earnings expectations limit the scale of the decline, but this week the fundamental background remains unfavorable for #SP500.

Trading Idea: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530



#BRENT: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

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Brent retains support from supply risks following attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and shipping complications in the region. A temporary halt to a key east-west pipeline intensifies concerns about the availability of export routes given limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weakening global demand assessments remain a restraining factor, and strong oil growth last week already reduced some of the further potential. Nevertheless, the risk of new supply disruptions still maintains a fundamental advantage for the #BRENT growth scenario during the week.

Trading Idea: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05


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