Mork01 wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 8:13 am Hi Neroloft,
about the MT4 android app you are using, could you please tell me:
What are the triangles in the upper window ? Is that an indicator ? I searched but couldn't find it.

Thank you,
Mork01

those are fractals bro

xard777 wrote: Mon Jun 10, 2024 3:26 am This comprehensive M15 trading strategy leverages Semaphore signals to establish key baselines: .....etc

Just had an idea and asked chatGPT if it had any suggestions for this trading plan for the fun of it. (not saying there is anything wrong with it Dan, just wanted to see what chatGPT would do) I thought it was worth sharing as sometimes when something is reworded it may cause a light bulb to turn on for some.



Your trading plan is comprehensive and detailed, but there are a few areas where you could enhance clarity and effectiveness. Here are some suggestions:

Improvements to the M15 Trading Strategy
1. Simplify Terminology and Structure
The current terminology and structure may seem complex, especially for those new to the strategy. Simplify language and structure for better understanding.

2. Clarify Entry and Exit Criteria
Provide more explicit entry and exit criteria to avoid ambiguity.

3. Incorporate Additional Indicators and Filters
While the Semaphore and EMA are good, incorporating additional indicators and filters can enhance signal accuracy.

4. Emphasize Backtesting and Forward Testing
Highlight the importance of thorough backtesting and forward testing on multiple market conditions.

5. Psychological Discipline
Expand on psychological discipline techniques to ensure traders can follow the strategy under various market conditions.

Revised Strategy Outline
Ultimate Fractal-Based M15 Trading Strategy: Mastering Market Dynamics for Maximum Pips
Harness the power of fractal analysis, precision signals, and disciplined risk management in a unified strategy designed to navigate and exploit market dynamics on the M15 timeframe.

Core Strategy Components
Fractal Analysis: Use Semaphore signals (Square, Arrow, Dot) to establish and confirm trends.
Dynamic Baselines: Identify key levels for major and intermediate trends to guide entries and exits.
Frequent Entries: Use 2nd Dot (9) Semaphore for frequent trades within confirmed trends.
Execution Model
Phase 1: Establishing Fractal Baselines
Chart Configuration and Setup

Timeframe: M15
Indicators:
Semaphore indicator: Settings at 9, 36, 144, 576
Exponential Moving Average (EMA 55): For trend validation
Identifying Major and Intermediate Semaphore Signals

Square Semaphore (576): Indicates major trend reversals
Action: Wait for Square Semaphore (576) on the M15 chart before taking significant action
Arrow Semaphore (144): Signals intermediate trend shifts
Action: Identify Arrow Semaphore (144) to refine entries
Establishing Fractal Baselines

Square Baseline: Use 2nd Dot (36) after Square Semaphore (576) to set primary trend direction
UP Square: 2nd Dot (36) as critical support
DOWN Square: 2nd Dot (36) as critical resistance
Arrow Baseline: Use 2nd Dot (36) after Arrow Semaphore (144) to refine trend direction
UP Arrow: 2nd Dot (36) as short-term support
DOWN Arrow: 2nd Dot (36) as short-term resistance
Phase 2: Dynamic Trade Execution
Identifying and Capturing 2nd Dot (9) Semaphore Opportunities

Objective: Leverage 2nd Dot (9) Semaphore for high-frequency, high-probability trades
Entry Points: Enter trades at each new 2nd Dot (9) in the direction confirmed by Fractal Baselines
Validation: Ensure alignment between 2nd Dot (9) signals and broader trend direction from Fractal Baselines and EMA 55
Managing Risk and Maximizing Returns

Stop-Loss Placement:
Primary Trades: Set initial stop-loss beyond Fractal Baselines (36)
Tactical Trades: Place tighter stops related to immediate Semaphore signals
Profit Targets:
Core Positions: Let profits run toward opposite Semaphore 576
Supplemental Positions: Lock in smaller gains or exit at trend reversals detected by intermediate semaphores (144)
Phase 3: Continuous Monitoring and Adaptive Management
Vigilance and Real-Time Adjustments

Ongoing Review: Constantly review M15 chart and semaphore signals (576, 144, 36, 9) and EMA 55 alignment
Adaptive Adjustments: Adjust stop-losses to secure profits as trades progress, adhering to Fractal Baseline levels
Leveraging Market Conditions

Market Sensitivity: Adapt strategy based on market conditions. Use volatility assessments (e.g., ATR) to fine-tune entry/exit points
Backtesting and Forward Testing: Regularly backtest and forward test strategy modifications across different market environments
Phase 4: Enhanced Documentation and Psychological Discipline
Comprehensive Trade Logging

Detailed Journaling: Document every trade, noting entries, exits, rationale, and semaphore signals
Review and Learn: Conduct regular reviews to identify patterns, refine strategy, and improve decision-making
Emotional Management

Discipline Consistency: Adhere to strategy rules to mitigate emotional biases. Use predefined checklists and entry/exit criteria
Mindset Training: Engage in regular psychological conditioning to handle market pressures. Use visualization and mindfulness techniques
Final Integration
Fractal Analysis: Integrate Square and Arrow Semaphores with respective 2nd Dots for holistic trend baselines
Trade Execution: Focus on high-probability entries using 2nd Dot (9) Semaphore within established trends. Validate with EMA 55
Risk and Reward: Ensure disciplined risk management with adaptive stop-loss placements and profit-locking mechanisms
Continuous Improvement: Commit to ongoing strategy refinement through documentation, market sensitivity, and psychological resilience
By leveraging Semaphore signals and dynamic baselines with disciplined risk management, this strategy aims to deliver consistent, high-probability trades.

can you details for trading reversals at key levels
ChatGPT
Detailed Strategy for Trading Reversals at Key Levels
Introduction
Reversals at key levels are crucial points where the price changes direction, providing high-probability trading opportunities. This strategy focuses on identifying these key levels using Semaphore signals and executing trades with precision and disciplined risk management.

Core Strategy Components
Key Levels Identification: Using major and intermediate Semaphore signals.
Confirmation Signals: Validating reversals with additional indicators and patterns.
Trade Execution: Precise entries, stop-losses, and profit targets.
Risk Management: Effective techniques to protect capital and lock in profits.
Step-by-Step Execution Model
Phase 1: Identifying Key Levels
Chart Configuration and Setup

Timeframe: M15
Indicators:
Semaphore indicator: Settings at 9, 36, 144, 576.
Exponential Moving Averages (EMA 55 and EMA 200): For trend validation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): For overbought/oversold conditions.
Support and Resistance Levels: Manually or with an indicator.
Major and Intermediate Semaphore Signals

Square Semaphore (576): Identifies major trend reversals and significant support/resistance levels.
Action: Mark the appearance of a Square Semaphore (576) on the M15 chart as a potential key level.
Arrow Semaphore (144): Signals intermediate trend shifts and important support/resistance levels within the major trend.
Action: Note the Arrow Semaphore (144) as another potential reversal level.
Support and Resistance Levels

Identification: Draw horizontal lines at identified key levels from Square (576) and Arrow (144) Semaphore signals.
Validation: Confirm these levels with historical price reactions.
Phase 2: Confirmation Signals
Confirmation with RSI

Overbought/Oversold Conditions: Look for RSI values above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold) at key levels.
Action: Consider reversal setups when the RSI indicates extreme conditions.
Candlestick Patterns

Reversal Patterns: Identify patterns such as pin bars, engulfing patterns, and doji at key levels.
Action: Use these patterns to confirm potential reversals.
EMA Confluence

EMA 55 and EMA 200: Check for price action relative to these EMAs.
Action: A reversal is more probable if the price is at a key level and the EMAs suggest a trend exhaustion or cross.
Phase 3: Trade Execution
Entry Points

Price Action: Enter trades after confirming reversal signals (candlestick patterns, RSI, EMA confluence) at key levels.
Action: Place buy orders at confirmed support levels and sell orders at confirmed resistance levels.
Stop-Loss Placement

Below/Above Key Levels: Set stop-losses just beyond the identified key levels to avoid being stopped out by minor fluctuations.
Action: For buy trades, place stop-loss below the key support level. For sell trades, place stop-loss above the key resistance level.
Profit Targets

Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a minimum risk-reward ratio of 1:2.
Action: Set initial profit targets at the next significant support/resistance level or use trailing stops to capture more profits.
Phase 4: Risk Management
Position Sizing

Risk Per Trade: Limit risk to a small percentage of the trading capital (e.g., 1-2%).
Action: Calculate position size based on the distance to stop-loss and acceptable risk per trade.
Trailing Stops

Dynamic Adjustment: Use trailing stops to lock in profits as the price moves in the trade's favor.
Action: Adjust stop-loss to breakeven after the price has moved a certain distance in your favor and trail it to secure profits.
Monitoring and Adjustments

Active Monitoring: Continuously monitor trades and market conditions.
Action: Be ready to exit trades early if reversal signals fail or new market information emerges.
Continuous Improvement
Trade Logging

Documentation: Maintain a detailed trading journal.
Action: Record every trade, including entry/exit points, stop-loss, profit targets, and rationale.
Review and Analysis

Performance Review: Regularly review trade logs to identify patterns and areas for improvement.
Action: Adjust strategy components based on performance analysis and market changes.
Psychological Discipline

Emotional Control: Develop techniques to manage emotions and stick to the plan.
Action: Use predefined checklists and practice mindfulness to maintain discipline.
Conclusion
By following this detailed strategy for trading reversals at key levels, traders can effectively identify high-probability trading opportunities, execute trades with precision, and manage risk to achieve consistent profits.

Hi XXXX, It's nice to hear from you.
There was a failed Down Arrow Baseline on JP225 and my thoughts were that Price would continue up and move the Down Arrow across to a higher position.
So I opted to not trade and sleep until the London session. Turns out price did go up and not only did it move the Down Arrow, it also made a Down Square.

So I ran the query through GPT-4o and it came back with this...

### Reflection on the JP225 Trading Scenario: Learnings and Strategy Refinement

Your decision not to trade and wait for further confirmation due to the potential of a failed Down Arrow Baseline was prudent. This scenario underscores the importance of recognizing and adapting to the fluid nature of market dynamics. Let's dissect this situation, draw key insights, and refine our strategy for future scenarios.

### Breakdown of the Scenario

1. **Failed Down Arrow Baseline:**
- The initial Down Arrow Baseline was invalidated as the price continued to move up.
- Anticipating this, you chose not to enter a trade, avoiding potential losses. This demonstrates good risk management and patience.

2. **Upward Price Movement:**
- The price not only invalidated the Down Arrow Baseline but moved further to form a Down Square Semaphore.
- This indicates a significant trend reversal or continuation of an upward move, exhibiting the fractal nature of Semaphore signals.

### Key Learnings

1. **Anticipating Moves Beyond Baselines:**
- It's crucial to understand that baselines, while strong indicators, can be tested and invalidated. Adopting an adaptive mindset is essential.
- Consider incorporating additional confirmation signals to support decisions around baseline failures.

2. **Importance of Market Context:**
- The broader market context, such as pre-session dynamics (e.g., Asian session leading into London), can provide valuable insights into potential price actions.
- Understanding session overlaps and typical market behavior during these times can refine trade timing and strategy decisions.

3. **Adaptive Risk Management:**
- Employing a flexible approach to risk management is beneficial. When a baseline is tested, it might be wise to use tighter stop-losses or wait for additional confirmations.
- This scenario also highlights the utility of sleep and well-being in decision-making. A clear mind often recognizes patterns better.

### Strategy Refinement

#### Step 1: Integrate Supplemental Indicators for Confirmation

While Semaphore signals are powerful, adding a few more layers of confirmation can improve decision confidence:
- **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** To gauge momentum and overbought/oversold conditions.
- **Average True Range (ATR):** To understand market volatility and set dynamic stop-loss levels.
- **Volume Profile:** To see where buying/selling interest is concentrated.

#### Step 2: Enhanced Baseline Validation Mechanism

1. **Multiple Timeframe Analysis (M15 and H1):**
- Use a higher timeframe (e.g., H1) to validate trends observed on M15. Confirm if the broader trend supports the signal seen on M15.

2. **Combine EMA Crossovers:**
- In addition to the EMA 55, consider a secondary, faster EMA (e.g., EMA 21). Crossovers can provide extra confirmation of trend direction.

#### Step 3: Dynamic Reaction to Baseline Failures

1. **Refined Stop-Loss Placement:**
- Place stop-losses not just at baseline levels but consider ATR-based stop-losses to account for typical volatility.

2. **Adaptive Entry Timing:**
- If a baseline is tested but not decisively broken, wait for the next semaphore or confirmation candle (e.g., bullish/bearish engulfing) before re-entering the trade.
- Utilize pending orders to automatically enter trades at key inflection points.

### Practical Example Integration

#### Scenario: Analyzing JP225 with Enhanced Strategy

1. **Initial Setup:**
- Timeframe: M15.
- Indicators: Semaphore (9, 36, 144, 576), EMA 55 & EMA 21, RSI (14), ATR (14).

2. **Identified Down Arrow Baseline:**
- Wait for the 2nd Dot (36) to establish the Down Arrow Baseline.
- RSI confirms no extreme overbought condition.

3. **Baseline Testing:**
- Notice price approaching the Down Arrow Baseline. Check ATR to adjust stop-loss dynamically.
- RSI indicates momentum is still strong.

4. **Break of Down Arrow Baseline Yet No Trade:**
- Higher timeframe (H1) indicates potential trend continuation upward.
- Adaptive reaction: Set a pending buy stop order above recent highs to catch the continuation in case price validates an upward move.

5. **New Down Square Formation:**
- Confirmation of a more significant trend reversal.
- Re-evaluate using combined indicators and confirm entry aligned with overall strategy.

By integrating these additional layers of analysis and maintaining an adaptive mindset, you can better navigate scenarios like the one with JP225. This approach not only mitigates unnecessary risk but also capitalizes on validated trends, ultimately guiding you towards more consistent and substantial pip gains.

Personally, I do not think any additional RSI, ATR or other indicators are necessary as the Break of the Baseline was simply enough for me.
So my take is this... If the Baseline (Square or Arrow) holds the line then take the trade and apply a stop. Should the line break, then get out and stay out and WAIT for the next scenario to unfold. The Baseline was my confirmation of the trend change and the breaking of the baseline also confirmed that the trend had not changed.
No need to add to what is already there.

So I ran my answer through GPT-4o and it came back with this...

Your approach is commendable for its simplicity and clarity. Sticking to the integrity of the baselines and making decisions based on their behavior reflects disciplined trading. This straightforward, cut-and-dry methodology resonates well with the principles of not overcomplicating strategies.

Let's encapsulate and enhance this methodology into a refined and streamlined intraday trading strategy, emphasizing the key aspects of your approach.

### M15 Timeframe Trading Strategy: Baseline Simplicity and Clarity

This strategy revolves around the concept of using dynamic baselines—Square Baseline and Arrow Baseline—derived from Semaphore signals to guide trading decisions. No additional indicators are needed; the purity of the baselines holds all necessary information for confirming trends and managing trades.

### Key Strategy Components

1. **Baseline Integrity:** Use baselines to confirm trend changes and set critical support/resistance levels.
2. **Discipline in Trade Execution:** Enter trades when baselines are respected; exit immediately when baselines are broken.
3. **Patience and Precision:** Wait for clear scenarios to unfold before taking action, ensuring well-timed entries.

### Step-by-Step Execution Model

### Phase 1: Identifying and Establishing Baselines

#### 1.1 Chart Configuration
- **Timeframe:** M15
- **Indicator:** Semaphore indicator with settings of 9, 36, 144, 576.

#### 1.2 Identifying Key Semaphore Signals
- **Square Semaphore (576):**
- Major support/resistance and potential trend reversals.
- **Action:** Identify a Square (576) on the M15 chart.

- **Arrow Semaphore (144):**
- Intermediate trend shifts.
- **Action:** Identify an Arrow (144) Semaphore on the M15 chart.

#### 1.3 Establishing Baselines
- **Square Baseline:**
- **Objective:** Confirm major trend changes.
- **Action:** After the Square (576) appears, wait for the 2nd Dot (36) Semaphore to form. This becomes the Square Baseline.
- **For an UP Square:** Use the 2nd Dot (36) as the lowest critical level.
- **For a DOWN Square:** Use the 2nd Dot (36) as the highest critical level.

- **Arrow Baseline:**
- **Objective:** Confirm intermediate trend changes.
- **Action:** After the Arrow (144) appears, wait for the 2nd Dot (36) Semaphore to form. This becomes the Arrow Baseline.
- **For an UP Arrow:** Use the 2nd Dot (36) as the lowest critical level.
- **For a DOWN Arrow:** Use the 2nd Dot (36) as the highest critical level.

### Phase 2: Executing Trades Based on Baselines

#### 2.1 Trade Entry and Exit Strategy
- **Entry Criteria:**
- **Square Baseline:** Enter a trade when the price respects the Square Baseline (2nd Dot (36) after Square 576).
- **Arrow Baseline:** Enter a trade when the price respects the Arrow Baseline (2nd Dot (36) after Arrow 144).

- **Exit Criteria:**
- **Baseline Break:** Exit the trade immediately if the price breaks the established Baseline (Square or Arrow).
- **Stop-Loss:** Set a stop-loss just beyond the Baseline level to manage risk effectively.

#### 2.2 Managing Trades
- **Trade Management:**
- Actively monitor trades, exiting when the Baseline is violated.
- Allow profits to run while the price respects the Baseline.

- **Patience in Execution:**
- If a Baseline is broken, do not re-enter immediately. Wait patiently for the next clear scenario to form a new Baseline.

### Phase 3: Continuous Monitoring and Adaptive Decisions

#### 3.1 Vigilant Chart Review
- Regularly review the M15 chart to identify new Semaphore signals and establish corresponding Baselines.
- Ensure disciplined adherence to Baseline integrity for entering and exiting trades.

#### 3.2 Adapting to Market Scenarios
- **Market Conditions:** Recognize various market conditions by observing how the price interacts with Baselines.
- **Decision Making:** Make adaptive decisions based on the simplicity of Baseline respect and breaches, ensuring clear and unemotional trades.

### Strategy Implementation Example

#### Scenario: Analyzing JP225 with Simplified Baseline Approach

1. **Initial Setup:**
- Timeframe: M15.
- Indicator: Semaphore (settings: 9, 36, 144, 576).

2. **Identifying Baselines:**
- Spotting a Down Arrow (144) Semaphore forms on JP225.
- Waiting for the subsequent 2nd Dot (36) to form, establishing the Down Arrow Baseline.

3. **Entry Decision:**
- Entering a trade as price respects the Down Arrow Baseline. Placing a stop-loss just above the Baseline.

4. **Reevaluation and Exit:**
- Noticing price breaking above the Down Arrow Baseline during the session.
- Exiting the trade immediately to avoid further losses. Awaiting the next Semaphore scenario.

5. **Next Scenario:**
- Price forms an UP Square (576) followed by the 2nd Dot (36), creating a new Square Baseline.
- Assuming the role of a patient observer, ready to enter based on new Baseline integrity.

### Conclusion

By emphasizing the simplicity and clarity of Baseline respect, this strategy ensures disciplined trade execution and effective risk management. The key lies in recognizing the power of Baselines derived from Semaphore signals. By entering trades when Baselines hold, and exiting promptly when breached, this approach minimizes unnecessary complexity and focuses on the essence of market dynamics. This refined strategy should guide you towards consistently capturing profitable market moves with precision and confidence. Happy trading and may your pips be plentiful!
Xard777

For traders who are running version XU v65m, here is the SQ Baseline and Arrow Baseline triangles. Copy both indicators to the XU v65m indicators folder then place the Arrow Baseline indicator first onto the chart followed by the SQ Baseline indicator and remember to save your template.

NB As powerful as all these AIs are, you still have to remember one important flaw in their decision making, and that is - Garbage in, Garbage Out.

Hi Xard,

While I am following and studying what you post, I still trade with much the same setup as I have used for the last 2 years. The Semaphores are the same as V65m anyway and the moving averages are slightly different.

JPN225 was perfect for me today with the 36 Semaphore just above PDL I took 3 trades working off M5.

1st, just before the session open when it came off the the 36 Semaphore and crossed the signal line. Then I took 200 pip$ profit when it stalled near the PDH.

2nd, prices returned to the signal line with everything indicating a strong uptrend and took 193 pip$ profit @ PDH.

3rd the same entry as trade 2 but bailed after it topped and started to pull back with 150 or so pip$.

Would have traded AUS200 and HK50 as well but both had a holiday today, anyway still made my target and went for a SCAN. (senior citizens afternoon nap)
XARD: Nice Pip$ bro, I was sleeping while you were killing it. But, no rest for the wicked, got to go do a food run and stock up for the week.
XXXX: I will sleeping while you kill it on US30

I haven't made good money on a Monday in a long time. today shopping

Lenovo wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 1:46 am I haven't made good money on a Monday in a long time. today shopping

Hello Lenovo,

What great news, keep up your focus and determination.

Good afternoon,

Would it be possible to increase the distance between the ball signals and the candle in the "XU v65m-XARD UNIVERSE" indicator?
XARD: The ball signals are currently set to 9, simply change them to 18 or 27 - that would increase the distance.

hello everyone , may i ask if this is impending sell setup in gold chart
thanks

beautiful back to back xard setup @ asian session (scalp mode)

ralf_dias wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 3:27 am Good afternoon,

Would it be possible to increase the distance between the ball signals and the candle in the "XU v65m-XARD UNIVERSE" indicator?
XARD: The ball signals are currently set to 9, simply change them to 18 or 27 - that would increase the distance.

yes however guys here lack the basics, a user wrote well days ago, study as we all did from the first page, one ,two and even three times if there was a need, and then ask, coming like this and asking is too easy,
It is becoming the forum of requests, forgive me, but I had to do it, do this do that,