chickensword wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 11:19 pm
the market is looking short for GDP in this picture the asset managers are number 2 in control (months to a year outlook) and number 1 is leveraged funds(yearly outlook)
as well as the nonreportables going short
I understand the COT data. I know what those numbers mean and do, that is not the problem.
I have used the COT data for over a Year in fact while trading Forex, because I thought it MIGHT have its advantages.
I even have an own written document file which explains in great detail how to use COT and what everything means.
After using and testing it out for over a Year I decided to drop it, as it didnt seem to help me in any way.
I know that the Chart is currently going down without looking at the COT.. I "know" that we might be in for a pullback without looking at the COT and so on.
In trading you need confluences to take trades, but I asked myself.
If the COT says short, but I see a great buy setup am I going to ignore it or take it?
The answer is.. I will take that buy based on my experience and price action.
So what is the conclusion here? The COT is nice, but doesnt really do a lot for me as a confluence. So I dont use it.
There are thousand things you can use and you can use ANYTHING as confluence, as long you are able to use it CONSISTENTLY and you are able to believe in it.
After all... all of this has very little to do with being able to be profitable or not.
Trading is a mental game and always has been.
So in hindsight, there was probably not a reason for me to reply here at all about my opinion. Then again, sometimes it's fun to discuss things
Ogee made a great point about the COT and how to use those numbers.
I still think based on my extensive live testing using the data of COT that it's largely meaningless..
The retail sentiment and COT data are certainly different and the sentiment has for me very little to do about "trading against the herd"
The retail sentiment means a lot more to me than that...
The retail sentiment which gives me live input about what People think can be a big indicator to find out when a Market is likely to turn.
The same as the COT you dont just look st one number.. you look how the numbers are changing..
Anyway.. I dont plan to write a book about this here.
I shared my view about COT, that's all.
Cheers.
Edit:
Thinking about it.. its pretty simple
Whether you use COT..Currenxy strength or Retail Sentiment.
They all give you a trend bias. Use it consistently and you are on a good way dkesnt matter what you use.
You cannot solve a problem from the same consciousness that created it. You must learn to see the world anew