JP225 ADR Extension-Based Momentum Model

1
Here is a somewhat interesting trading rule for the JP225 stock index CFD.

In the top-left corner of the chart, I have included the performance results from July 2025 to the present.

In summary, the total number of trades is 147, the win rate is 36%, and the payoff ratio is 3.2.
Please refer to the attached chart for further details.

Indicators used:
ADR +100% line
ADR +50% line
ADR −50% line
ADR −100% line

Instrument:
JP225 stock index CFD

Timeframe:
One-hour chart or lower (performance was measured on the 15-minute chart).

Entry conditions (long positions only; short conditions omitted):
Place a buy limit order slightly above the ADR +100% line by 08:30 Japan time.
Limited to one trade per day.

Exit conditions (long positions):
Place a stop-loss order slightly below the ADR +50% line,
or close the position at 06:00 Japan time the following day.
If the pending buy limit order remains unfilled, it is cancelled.

Stop loss:
A stop-loss order placed slightly below the ADR +50% line.

Position size:
1% of account balance per trade.

Important notes:
The performance measurement period corresponds to a time when both the weekly and daily charts were in an uptrend.
As the results indicate, short trades are only marginally above break-even.
It is uncertain whether this strategy will remain effective in the future.
At present, it appears highly promising; however, the statistical sample is insufficient.
Please conduct your own backtesting and verification before using it.

However, I believe that by adding a trend filter and a VIX filter, the rule may remain effective going forward.

I have stopped holding positions overnight while asleep. Thank you for your understanding.

Use a trading rule that fits your own daily routine.
These users thanked the author funchi for the post (total 3):
Curioso, LittleCaro, Nabs
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I will not create indicators without the publication of a trading system.
While I am motivated to develop greedy systems for trading systems that are already satisfactory,
I will not assist with the development of your trading systems.
Please publish your trading system first before requesting the creation of indicators.
funchi
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Re: JP225 ADR Extension-Based Momentum Model

2
I have tested it using the same rules with ATR.

The performance from July 2025 to the present is shown in the top left of the chart.
In summary, there were 118 trades, with a win rate of 46% and a payoff ratio of 1.7.
Please refer to the attached chart for full details.

Indicators used:
+50% line of the 10 ATR
+25% line of the 10 ATR
–25% line of the 10 ATR
–50% line of the 10 ATR
These users thanked the author funchi for the post (total 2):
Curioso, LittleCaro
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
I will not create indicators without the publication of a trading system.
While I am motivated to develop greedy systems for trading systems that are already satisfactory,
I will not assist with the development of your trading systems.
Please publish your trading system first before requesting the creation of indicators.
funchi
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Re: JP225 ADR Extension-Based Momentum Model

3
This method involves entering a trade once the average daily range has been exceeded.

In Post #1, the ADR line is based on the current day’s open.
In Post #2, the ATR line is based on the previous day’s close.

For this method, and particularly in the case of stock index CFDs, I believe that using the previous day’s close as the reference point is the correct approach.
However, the performance results for the ADR when calculated using the previous day’s close as the reference are shown in the attached image.
At present, the ADR based on the current day’s open is producing better results, but how might this compare over the longer term?

I have modified the indicator so that the reference point can be switched to either the open or the close.
These users thanked the author funchi for the post (total 4):
mazibee, Akela, ricosuaveiii, SIMONCSABA
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
I will not create indicators without the publication of a trading system.
While I am motivated to develop greedy systems for trading systems that are already satisfactory,
I will not assist with the development of your trading systems.
Please publish your trading system first before requesting the creation of indicators.
funchi
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Re: JP225 ADR Extension-Based Momentum Model

4
I have systemised it to make verification easier.
There was a significant difference between vague manual verification and systemised automated verification.
The win rate deteriorated, but the payoff ratio improved.

Previously, conditions such as “slightly above” or “slightly below” were ambiguous.
Also, performance will change if the parameter settings are adjusted.

Performance from July 2025 to the present is shown in the top left of the chart.
In summary: 153 trades, a win rate of 30%, and a payoff ratio of 3.6.
Please refer to the attached chart for details.

The “FNC_QUIET_EDGE_2604” indicator plots the entry and exit points,
and the “FNC_BacktestAnalyzer_ByTrendline” indicator displays the results.
All parameters are set to their default values.

The parameter settings for the “FNC_QUIET_EDGE_2604” indicator are explained below.

----- ADR -----
Sets the reference price for the ADR line.

If you want the ADR line to be evaluated based on today’s open:
Reference price = OPEN
Bar shift = 0

If you want the ADR line to be evaluated based on the previous day’s close:
Reference price = CLOSE
Bar shift = 1

----- Entry Settings -----
Configure the entry conditions.

ADR Open pos percent
A trade is entered when price exceeds the specified ADR line.

Applied price
HIGH/LOW: Entry occurs when the high or low breaches the ADR line.
CLOSE: Entry occurs when the closing price breaches the ADR line.

Trading Hours (Start time)
Set the trading start time using the MT4 server time.

Max Trades Per Day
Set the maximum number of trades per day.

----- Exit Settings -----
Configure the exit conditions.

ADR SL pos percent
The position is exited when price exceeds the specified ADR line.

Applied price
HIGH/LOW: Exit occurs when the high or low breaches the ADR line.
CLOSE: Exit occurs when the closing price breaches the ADR line.

Trading Hours (Forced closing time)
Set the trading end time using the MT4 server time.

If the trading start time and trading end time are set in reverse order, the system will not function.
These users thanked the author funchi for the post:
ricosuaveiii
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
I will not create indicators without the publication of a trading system.
While I am motivated to develop greedy systems for trading systems that are already satisfactory,
I will not assist with the development of your trading systems.
Please publish your trading system first before requesting the creation of indicators.
funchi
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Re: JP225 ADR Extension-Based Momentum Model

5
I have created a dashboard.
An EA has also been set up.

However,
the stop loss (SL) is based on VWAP.
The position size is 0.01 lots.

Please download and use the latest version from post #1..

The dashboard results are based on automated trading using this topic.
However, the results for JP225 and HKD50 are based on different trading rules.
I will not continue testing with this dashboard.

If anyone is interested, I would appreciate it if you could customise it and post your own test results.
These users thanked the author funchi for the post (total 2):
mazibee, ricosuaveiii
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%
I will not create indicators without the publication of a trading system.
While I am motivated to develop greedy systems for trading systems that are already satisfactory,
I will not assist with the development of your trading systems.
Please publish your trading system first before requesting the creation of indicators.
funchi
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%