Re: A New Trading Game (chaos game) Played for Money and Played in Risk- Free Space
Posted: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:03 am
Ok, thanks.
Ok, thanks.
Ive red this whole thread , and JUST FUCKING LOL
If you have read he mentions many times it's not a system but a toolgaarmitaar wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:38 pm Ive red this whole thread , and JUST FUCKING LOL
any seasoned trader will tell you this is absolute bullshit
second thing : i had a mathematician who has 3 phd and designs algos for company like shell and blackrock look at your thing. Says its nebulous and unusable.
quoting him :
'the theory behind the tool is very smart and interesting , however it cant be used to make money in a serious way. Many have tried to use mathematical equations to describe chaos and they all failed because chaos is....chaos , and therefore cannot be put into equation'
now quoting wikipedia :
'The amount of time for which the behavior of a chaotic system can be effectively predicted depends on three things: how much uncertainty can be tolerated in the forecast, how accurately its current state can be measured, and a time scale depending on the dynamics of the system'
so the practical outcome of your system is this one :
it will generate many many false signals , and some will be good.
Whats the win rate ?
Whats the average RR ?
What this and What that ?
Maybe quit beeing an absolute jerk with people that know how to trade and start learning from them.
Your tool needs to be backtested seriously before anyone can say its profitable or not.
painting arrows and dots on a chart is not trading.
And anyone serious will not take your word for it considering how you behave and how you obvisouly have 0 idea about what trading is.
End of story for me.
Sorry for honest answer.
I used to work for Shell. If you go to LinkedIn you can look up my profile. Suffice it to say that just because we appear in the same forum does not make us peers. It is important always to check the profile of a person who makes an important claim. Your mathematician is correct but only until Orbit the Tool. It is because he stopped being correct with Orbit the Tool that makes Orbit the Tool the biggest deal in trading to date. Neither he nor you can change that fact. Orbit is out and being used so it is only a matter of time before he (your mathematician), comes around to the new reality, and he will, once he knows how the mathematics was applied. It took a single man of competence to show the world round and not flat do not doubt the ability in humanity. Now there is an admonition in the Bible about fine things and swine and in any public gathering swine do tend to dominate so it is not always practicable to keep fine things from swine. What happens in such cases is that people differentiate themselves. I have not asked anyone for money I have shared free so that those who find merit profit and those who do not do not. But it is odd that without trial you reach conclusion relying only on your uninformed mind. That also happens but conclusions reached in such a way rarely ever find a mark. And then again, I am curious to know why you elected to quote the portion of wikipedia you quoted. First, the time scale to which the quote refers is called Lyapunov time which is simply the time between when a system is in balance and when it becomes completely chaotic. So I am sure you quoted that piece to make a point but my question is, what point? I sense the quote is probably way above your head and it may have sounded esoteric to you and you felt you might therefore impress others by it, but then how is it relevant to anything you have said or are trying to say here? Could you kindly explain what you think it means in context so people can relate to it that do not know the technicalities of chaos? Or alternatively simply find that you do not know what you are talking about in all of this as you lack both the competence and measurement skills to seriously advocate any stance at all in the application of chaos anywhere? Please make sure you explain what that quote means to you and how it applies generally to your position here else you will lose all credibility with me and probably the others you have sought to impress with a bogus quote. In the meanwhile, and not to protract, let me give you advice, calm down and take one tentative step at a time. This thing is way beyond you and your friend (BTW PhD's are not additive and since each by definition is a narrow swathe of knowledge, they are not necessarily expansive which is why your friend needed 3 and not one. I suppose if you hold a higher degree as I do you would know this). Your rant here is out of place and too forward to be tenable as you are in no sense qualified. Allow others with competence to lead and then you can follow as you clearly lack a basis to lead on this topic even here. Be patient it is only a matter of time (and indeed Lyapunov time and as we know in chaos this varies per system). Now I know my results trading the tool and have shown some here, but the idea is to make nonsense of the illusion that there is any such thing as a skilled trader, or that one trader is better than another intrinsically --- a chaotic system assures that such will NEVER happen. Anyone and anyone at all all can now beat the market consistently using the tool - that is the whole point. But finally let me remark, a chaotist by definition is also a trader that applies the precepts of chaos theory and fractal geometry to the markets. So when I say I am chaotist not a trader do not get comfortable with the idea that therefore you know trading more than I or have more experience or in any way shape or form can lace my trading shoes. That is not the way it works and it is because I know trading is hopeless for you and many like you that I have offered the tool here as an aid to improving the lot of those who like me want to beat the market consistently. Do do not abuse that privilege my friend.gaarmitaar wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 5:38 pm
second thing : i had a mathematician who has 3 phd and designs algos for company like shell and blackrock look at your thing. Says its nebulous and unusable.
quoting him :
'the theory behind the tool is very smart and interesting , however it cant be used to make money in a serious way. Many have tried to use mathematical equations to describe chaos and they all failed because chaos is....chaos , and therefore cannot be put into equation'
now quoting wikipedia :
'The amount of time for which the behavior of a chaotic system can be effectively predicted depends on three things: how much uncertainty can be tolerated in the forecast, how accurately its current state can be measured, and a time scale depending on the dynamics of the system'
Just to show how profoundly daft a public argument outside of the rules can get and allow even the most moronic statements to be made with false confidence.
I dont know, i recorded two sessions taking a picture each minute to see every change and it was wrong both times. You say chaos semaphore, the crown etc, but i dont see any difference from any oter zig zag semaphore, like the xard system one for example. Might as well flip a coin. Why dont you post some setups of buy/sell that you claim is correct 100%? Or you mean this is a tool not a system and different people can interpret differently therefore making them take different decissions?Darkdoji wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:06 pm Just to show how profoundly daft a public argument outside of the rules can get and allow even the most moronic statements to be made with false confidence.
a) Chaos theory says and proves that the market is unpredictable by showing why --> Extreme sensitivity to initial conditions (the "butterfly effect" in chaos).
b) Chaos theory says and proves that the market is is deterministic -----> The market is certain for a range that can be found ONLY by equation.
c) Orbit the Tool shows it can find that range certain 100/100 times (watch the video).
Now add it all up:
The trader in Shell takes a wild risk and one completely untutored by the mathematics. He relies on a notion of predictivity that is confirmed by chaos as nonexistent. So he trades by chance (stochastically) and his chances of serial wins doing so is the same as yours any day and we know your chances of consistent wins is near zero.
Orbit the Tool reads the market deterministically (admits no randomness into its future states) and trades ONLY when there is zero risk (i.e. signals only for the certain range)
Therefore, Orbit the Tool is correct 100/100 times when the market is defined as a deterministic construct. Because Orbit finds the initial value (takes out the "butterfly effect") every trade interval.
This is simple and you can show this to your friend and see whether he thinks you are smart or thinks you should take my good advice to go tentative step by tentative step. This thing is way beyond you and your humility in accepting to learn is your only way out of making a public fool of yourself. It is esoteric mathematical knowledge and it takes more than gusto in ranting to appear civilised around a topic such as chaos. It takes knowledge of the subject. I hope this shows you why you may wish to take down your decibels on the topic (at least for now and until you can lace your chaotic shoes youself).
(-_-)
I owe you nothing. Find what you find with the brains you have. Those who are making it are and those who are not are not ----> it is life and fools abound. The tool is there use it if you can on the terms laid out and if you cannot go your way. IT IS NOT A SYSTEM.ffsss wrote: Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:14 pm I dont know, i recorded two sessions taking a picture each minute to see every change and it was wrong both times. You say chaos semaphore, the crown etc, but i dont see any difference from any oter zig zag semaphore, like the xard system one for example. Might as well flip a coin. Why dont you post some setups of buy/sell that you claim is correct 100%? Or you mean this is a tool not a system and different people can interpret differently therefore making them take different decissions?