Ogee wrote: Mon Jun 26, 2023 4:32 pm Frontline report. Minimal change

Thanks for the situation update Ogee - watching the video now. Just trying to get my head around it but seems like both sides are at a bit of a stalemate at the moment, right?

To recap where we are;

Russia continues to defend the 4 eastern states captured at the start of the war which were their initial goals.

Ukraine has long since run out of all resources such as money, military equipment and ammunition.

The Ukraine war effort has been kept alive by the $180 bln given by the west but that was with the expectation Ukraine could regain lost ground, that they have failed to do, and have now again run out of resources.

The upcoming NATO summit will likely decide what happens next.

NATO could,

End financial support to Ukraine.
Escalate the conflict by continuing financial support as well as supplying troops.

The only options Ukraine has without western support is to negotiate for peace or to freeze the war by sabotaging the regional nuclear power plant spreading contamination over the south east.

As we see in the Blinken video below, this war is about the US retaining it's place as the lead player on the world stage, they see China and Russia threatening that position.

Once Russia has been degraded then action on China can begin which is why the US has already started sending weapons and 'military instructors' to Taiwan, same as they did in Ukraine after 2014.

Meanwhile, currently what's best for the Ukrainian people? Why cannabis of course, and lots of it.

Ogee wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 3:54 pm

The failure of Ukraine's 2nd attempt at a counteroffensive confirms new info for army generals around the world. Tradition says the attacking force needs a 3:1 ratio advantage of men to the defending force because 3:1 attackers will become causalities.

Defenders sit with a minefield in front of them, the attackers must clear it first, they do that by using air power and artillery to subdue the defender's artillery, and here's the lesson.

If the attackers don't have air or artillery power they need a ratio greater than 10:1, because that's the ratio of Ukraine troops killed or wounded in both these counteroffensive attempts.










Meanwhile, as Ukraine gets closer ''to the last Ukrainian'', Russia starts gearing up.

Ogee wrote: Mon Jul 31, 2023 7:15 pm The failure of Ukraine's 2nd attempt at a counteroffensive confirms new info for army generals around the world. Tradition says the attacking force needs a 3:1 ratio advantage of men to the defending force because 3:1 attackers will become causalities.

They never had that many real soldiiers to begin with......... now they are well & truly fucked !!!!

The appearance of Stryker, Marder and first signs of Challengers indicate that the best Ukrainian strategic reserves were introduced.

Usually such units are thrown into battle last, when there is nothing else left.

Reminder: There were statements that the main offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine would begin in mid-August in order to finally try to break through our defenses.

This is also reported by Ukrainian channels, Forbes and SkyNews.

We might be looking at the last decisive battle at the Zaporozhia front, which by end of August will drain the last combat capable Ukrainian reserves


Offensive Endgame | Challenger II Spotted | 30 Mechanized Brigades Committed | FINAL PUSH

No breakthrough yet in Ukraine's big push using the last of it's reserves, Russian frontline expecting UKR to continue today.

So we have the last two of Ukraine’s premier brigades (the 82nd and 46th) in the field on the Orikhiv-Tokmak axis, likely entering combat at scale soon - already a few Marders and Strykers have gone over.


Ukraine Russia War - Could it Be Nearing the End? w/Matthew Hoh (33 min)
https://twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1ZkKzXRXaReJv

Ogee wrote: Thu Aug 17, 2023 4:19 pm

Ukraine Commits Last Remaining Elite Brigade For Final Attempt

SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER
17 AUG 2023

Yesterday we had the first full confirmation that the last and most serious Ukrainian brigade, meant for the big offensive, has finally been committed to battle.
As you know, from the Pentagon leaks we’ve had the full ORBATS of the 9 brigades of the so-called 9th Corps. All but the 82nd had already been committed and most were decimated.

https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukr ... ning-elite



Very interesting analysis update (1 hr 15 min watch at x1.5 speed)
NATO plan A, NATO plan B, Failed offensive, Negotiations in Moscow, Russian offensive in Kupainsk, New Russian missiles coming, UKR official admits Russian missiles aren't being shot down, Niger update.

NATO finally realises it's painted itself into a corner and must now find a way out.


The chief of staff for NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has angered Kyiv officials for suggesting Ukraine could become a member of NATO if it ceded some of its territory to Russia.


Stian Jenssen, who has held the title of director of the Private Office of the NATO Secretary General since 2017, reportedly made the suggestion while speaking on a recent panel in the Norwegian city of Arendal.


https://www.newsweek.com/nato-official- ... ng-1820010


But it will take time for reality to gain acceptance by the diehards.

EU still gets a lot of gas from Russia in spite of the sanctions (because it's desperately needed) but Ukraine is going to fix that before the winter cold gets here.


Ukraine will cut Russian gas supplies to Europe after the contract ends in 2024: “Next year will tell us how Europe functions without Russian gas at all”

- Ukrainian Minister of Energy