The Armed Forces of Ukraine have only a chance to advance on a narrow sector of the front, they have little chance against 500,000 soldiers of the RF Armed Forces, - a British general assessed Kyiv's plans
Retired British General Sir Richard Barrons (2013-2016 head of Joint Forces Command / Strategic Command), in an interview with the BBC, suggests not placing too much hope on a large-scale counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, at least in the near future.
According to his calculations, the Ukrainian army prepared about 60,000 soldiers for the operation, and the Russian army concentrated about 300,000 at the front, and about 200,000 more in the reserve echelon.
Even under the most favorable conditions, such an operation can only be carried out on a front section no longer than 25 km, because. it is in this case that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to create the numerical advantage necessary to break through the defense.
As for the choice of the site and the purpose of such an operation, according to the general, it makes sense to carry out it in order to cut off important communications, for example, to cut off the Crimea or break into the depths of a well-prepared Russian defense in order to threaten the rear. This would give everyone the feeling that it is possible to defeat the Russian army, although this is unlikely to happen in 2023.
According to General Barrons, the success of Kyiv's further operations will directly depend on the desire of the Ukrainians themselves to wage a protracted war, and it promises to become one, given the capabilities of Russia, as well as from the buildup of Western assistance.
The General believes that for this, Kyiv's allies will need to put military production on an industrial basis, which will be very expensive, but not as much as in the case of a direct confrontation with Russia.