More commentators realising the tomahawks to Ukraine story was a nonstarter. It turns out that the new and few land launch vehicles make up a huge road train that would be easily spotted by Russian loitering drones. Not only that but that the slow cumbersome missile developed in the 1970s would be easily detected once launched and a Russian missile attack on the launcher would happen within minutes.

This was demonstrated a few days ago when a Ukrainian patriot launcher having hit a Russian fighter jet was itself destroyed by a Russian Iskander missile strike immediately after.

There is almost a sense of disappointment from Russian commentators who say the Russian military were confident they would find the key to tracking and targeting the tomahawks very quickly, as they did all the other western missiles, and looked forward to sharing that information to the rest of the world.

As for the other possible US missile, the Barracuda, apparently it’s not actually even in production yet.

You have to wonder why the west (and Ukraine) keep doing this ‘strategic ambiguity’, doing it all the time just makes them look like bullshitters and morons.

On to mapping and the AFU and the west’s favourite, Deep State Mapping (if you don’t draw as you are told you’ll be sent to the front) have not changed their map of the Russian breakout area just north east of Pokrovsk for over a month and it’s getting ridiculous.

The reason for the failure to update is Zelensky’s claim to Trump and the EU that they have encircled Russian troops and are steadily destroying them but this is not true. In fact it’s the other way round with Ukraine sending in their best troops from the Azov brigades who are getting chewed up for no gain.

Even other Ukrainian mappers like Ukraine Interactive Map do not show anything like the deep state map but this is what Zelensky has been telling the west and this is what, as usual, they automatically believe.

But the west must be having big doubts as the AFU seem incapable of destroying 2 completely encircled holdouts even after a month. The western leaders are starting to understand, after 3 years of bullshit from Zelensky, that Ukraine might not actually be winning after all.

Hence several commentators have remarked on the sombre mood at the recent European Political Community (EPC) Summit in Copenhagen, Denmark. “The EPC, launched in 2022, serves as a forum for strategic dialogue on Europe's future, especially in light of reduced U.S. focus on the region”.

Not only a sombre mood but no meaningful agreements on a way forward at all.

Especially as the US looks to be pushing ahead with a steady withdrawal from Europe and some commentators talking about the removal of US troops from Germany, Poland, Poland, and Romania within the Trump administration timeframe.

What does seem to be happening is that the EU leaders are looking more to themselves and therefore less towards Ukraine. Poland for example is spending more on equipment like missiles and tanks but it’s not for shipment to Ukraine, it’s staying in Poland.

It may be that the European countries are following the US and concentrating more on their own defensive concerns while letting the Ukraine conflict play itself out on the battlefield. There is only a finite supply and more for European countries means less for Ukraine.

Certainly there is no more talk of peace summits or ceasefires, the Europeans were never interested anyway, they just demanded victory, but now even the US has gone quiet, Witkoff announced he was going to leave the Trump team and go back to his NY real estate business and so that leaves just Kellogg who was only ever a mouth piece for Zelensky anyway.


DeepState Map
Ukraine Interactive Mao
Ukrainian Disaster Within Pokrovsk as RUAF Capture Large Portion of Heavily Fortified Stronghold

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
3 hours
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 05.10.25 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 05.10.25
personnel – about / about 1115250 (+870) persons
tanks / tanks – 11230 (+4) from
troop-carrying AFVs – 23299 (+1) from
artillery systems / artillery systems – 33446 (+18) from
MLRS / MLRS – 1516 (+1) from
anti-aircraft systems / anti-aircraft systems – 1222 (+0) from
aircraft / aircraft – 427 (+0) from
helicopters – 346 (+0)
UAV operational-tactical level – 66863 (+320)
cruise missiles – 3803 (+0)
warships – 28 (+0)
submarines – 1 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks – 63433 (+35)
special equipment – ​​3971 (+0)

Turns out that theatrical empresarios Zelensky and Yermak have been caught telling more lies, shock, horror. They may have misled those very gullible western neocons saying that Ukrainian drones had wiped out 38% of Russia's oil refinery capacity.

Reminder that Trump famously said he doesn’t listen to the US intel agencies and obviously gets all his information on Ukraine from Kellogg who gets it straight from Zelensky.

There are a couple of proven facts that debase the refinery bed time story of a war winning strategy. Russia mostly exports crude oil not refined products and anyway most of Russia’s refineries are well out of range of Ukrainian drones. Although a hit on a refinery causes a fire and a lot of smoke, a refinery complex is well spread out and they, not surprisingly, are well equipped to deal with fires.

Another major problem for the Ukrainians is that the Soviets always built a lot of redundancy into their infrastructure, refineries rarely run at over 50% and any temporary shutdown to one is easily compensated for by others.

In short, attacks on refineries will not stop crude exports and will not collapse the economy. The attacks may cause some temporary domestic shortages but if necessary (not so far) Russia could just import refined products from friendly states in the region.

This Ukrainian strategy is not going to change the course of the war let alone win it.

Have Ukrainian Drones Really Knocked Out 38% of Russia's Oil Refining Capacity?

Turns out the 38% is a ‘potentially’ number, so not real then.

16 refineries have been hit and all would have needed to have been totally destroyed and all would have needed to have been always running at 100% capacity to get the 38% figure.

But none of the refineries were actually ‘destroyed’ and none were needed to be running at 100% capacity.

As has been shown in the past, repairs are relatively simple, often just a patch over a hole in a tank, and ‘destroyed’ refineries are almost always back up and running at normal capacity within 2 weeks. In the 2024 campaign nearly all the “destroyed’’ refineries were still able to keep at least some operations going after the attack while repairs were made.

So Ukraine might be able, at times, to temporarily affect less than 20% of Russian refining capacity. This has not been enough to cause any distress on the financial markets nor caused any need to import supplies.


Why do the Ukrainians even bother? Because there is not much else they can do. They’re still dependent on US intel for targeting and the US won’t let them try civilian attacks on Moscow or decapitation strikes on the Kremlin which is what they really want to do. There are the Russian military bases but they’re covered by strong air defence systems so that wasn’t working.

It must be slowly dawning on Trump that Zelensky and Yermak might not have been telling the whole truth these last 9 months (or the whole 3 and a half years for that matter) but will he be big enough to admit it to himself?

In other news a recent poll in Ukraine says that over 70% of the people think that corruption in the country has gotten worse since the start of the military operation. Bit of an eye opener given that Ukraine was already pegged as Europe's most corrupt country even before the conflict.

On the frontlines, Russia has begun a major drone and missile attack on north east Sumy concentrating on the energy infrastructure seen as a move to encourage civilians to leave the area.

If Russian ground forces were to move in, which is usual following heavy air assaults, that could put them on Kiev’s doorstep. That would necessitate a rush of Ukrainian troops from other parts of the frontline to defend the capital.

And btw, the Ukraine military have decided now that the city of Pokrovsk is not actually a very important city after all so would not be a big deal if the troops decided to suddenly withdraw.


The Russians Continue to Break the Donbass Steel Wall Military Summary For 2025.10.04

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 06.10.25 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 06.10.25
personnel – about / about 1116340 (+1090) persons
tanks / tanks – 11235 (+5) from
troop-carrying AFVs – 23313 (+14) from
artillery systems / artillery systems – 33464 (+18)from
MLRS / MLRS – 1516 (+0) from
anti-aircraft systems / anti-aircraft systems – 1223 (+1) from
aircraft / aircraft – 427 (+0) from
helicopters – 346 (+0)
UAV operational-tactical level – 67226 (+363)
cruise missiles – 3841 (+38)
warships – 28 (+0)
submarines – 1 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks – 63496 (+63)
special equipment – ​​3971 (+0)

Another day and another lie from western media. Time again for the propaganda feast that is Russia’s 6 monthly conscription round and once again western media says this was forced on Russia to replace the horrendous losses on the battlefield and has been increasing in recruited numbers yearly.

Except again it isn’t. This routine conscription started after the Checnian Russian war to keep the nation prepared. The conscripts go through basic military training and then spend time in specialist training roles before returning back to civilian life.

They are never sent to the battlefronts.

The number in 2010 was over 500,000 for the year but in 2022 when the SMO started the annual number was 250,000, in 2023 was 260,000, in 2024 was 270,000 and 2025 will be 280,000. So not really much in the way of increases at all.

As a result of annual conscriptions over the years Russia now has 32 million men with military training and experience.

Could be useful if the clowns in Europe really are stupid enough to start a major European war over who gets to rule the Donbas.

And a reminder that when Russia ‘invaded’ Ukraine they used less than 200,000 troops which experts laughed at because to take over Ukraine they would need more than 1 million, while at the same time dismissing Russia’s explanation that 200,000 was enough to control the 4 eastern oblasts, which as it turned out, it was.

Once it became clear that Russia was in fact fighting NATO not just Ukraine Russia mobilised another 300,000 (the only mobilisation they have carried out since the start of the SMO) and set about building up their army total to just over 1 million through offering contracts to volunteers.

For reference Hitler tried and failed to take on Europe with 5 million men so really, until you see Russia heading towards those kinds of numbers I wouldn’t worry about Putin marching on Berlin.

And yet more fake news, turns out the new ADS-50 anti-drone air defence system installed at Munich airport doesn’t actually exist. Not sure what the point of the fake is but never mind.

In other news the Economist reports that 60% of the Russian refinery attacks are by Fire Point FP-1 drones which can reach targets 1,500km within Russia and have sophisticated software that has proved resistant to EW jamming.

The much talked about but not actually seen as yet Flamingo is actually a Fire Point FP-5 costing $500,000 and still only a few made every day says the Economist.


Meanwhile video of Russian fibre-optic controlled drones operating in central Kramatorsk. There are clearly still a lot of civilians there, presumably because the Ukraine army’s deep state map still shows the Russians a considerable distance away so expect a rather scrambled evacuation effort to start very soon.


And Ukraine releases documents claiming to be Russian official casualty figures. They say Russia is suffering just under 10,000 KIA a month which may be close to the truth.

Reminder that Russia is still recruiting volunteers at 30,000 to 40,000 a month.





Ukraine Army's Deep State Map







The Ring Around Siversk Continues to TightenMilitary Summary And Analysis For 2025.10.05

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
2 hours
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 07.10.25 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 07.10.25
personnel – about / about 1117360 (+1020) persons
tanks / tanks – 11238 (+3) from
troop-carrying AFVs – 23319 (+6) from
artillery systems / artillery systems – 33493 (+29) from
MLRS / MLRS – 1516 (+0) from
anti-aircraft systems / anti-aircraft systems – 1224 (+1) from
aircraft / aircraft – 427 (+0) from
helicopters – 346 (+0)
UAV operational-tactical level – 67564 (+338)
cruise missiles – 3841 (+0)
warships – 28 (+0)
submarines – 1 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks – 63575 (+79)
special equipment – ​​3973 (+2)

Another day another Zelensky demand. Now Zelensky is demanding a unilateral ceasefire for air attacks.

On the face of it that would appear a bit odd, to achieve a unilateral ceasefire all he needs to do is stop Ukrainian air attacks into Russia.

But in the topsy turvy world of Zelensky that's not what he means at all.

What Zelensky is demanding is that Putin stops his air attacks, while Zelensky himself happily continues.

The probable reason for this demand is that the pesky Putin keeps destroying his home made long range missile production bases which is a real nuisance.

But Zelensky is not quite so deluded as to think Putin will obey his demands, no, but the west will, as they always have. So Zelensky is demanding the west use any means necessary to force Putin to stop their air attacks on Ukraine.

Left open like that it's hard to imagine any way other than the west joining the hot war against Russia. Of course the European leadership would, at the drop of a hat, their plan all along was to break up Russia and share out the wealth.

That’s now obviously not going to happen, even worse is that the Europeans are destroying themselves by continuing to try. The obvious way forward from this point is to reestablish relations with Russia and reestablish buying cheap pipelined Russian energy. There is no such thing as a rich country with expensive energy, without cheap energy Europe is doomed.

Ultimately Europe should be moving towards large scale nuclear power supplying cheap energy but Russia will be needed as a stop gap at least.

But the Europeans look more interested in going to war, only they can’t do it on their own, they must have the US on board or it’s another lost cause.

The good news for the people is that the warmongering globalist leadership look like being ousted in the UK, France and Germany which is an indication of just how completely out of touch with their public opinion they really are.

New Ukrainian drones are managing to avoid Russian air defence, typically it takes the Russians a couple of weeks to devise new ident and tracking protocols such as happened with the atamaks, storm shadow and scalp missiles and why you never hear of them anymore.

Meanwhile Russia is now sending upwards of 800 long range drones and missiles a night and have long since completely overwhelmed Ukraine's air defences, another reason why Zelensky desperately needs the air attacks to stop.

Over 800 drones and missiles head into Ukraine;

Mark Sleboda | Stunning Retaliation: Russia Shatters Kiev's Energy Sector - Zelensky Cries For Truce

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
2 hours
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 08.10.25 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 08.10.25
personnel – about / about 1118370 (+1010) persons
tanks / tanks – 11240 (+2) from
troop-carrying AFVs – 23324 (+5) from
artillery systems / artillery systems – 33519 (+26) from
MLRS / MLRS – 1517 (+1) from
anti-aircraft systems / anti-aircraft systems – 1225 (+1) from
aircraft / aircraft – 427 (+0) from
helicopters – 346 (+0)
UAV operational-tactical level – 67965 (+401)
cruise missiles – 3841 (+0)
warships – 28 (+0)
submarines – 1 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks – 63650 (+75)
special equipment – ​​3973 (+0)

There can be no doubt now that diplomacy is over, there will be no other end to this conflict than when Zelensky decides to agree to Putin's terms.

Trump is no longer interested in finding a solution and will concentrate on a long term peace deal for the middle east to secure his Noble prize. As for Ukraine there is nothing the Europeans can do to alter events, the only thing that they could ever do was to convince a US president to join the hot war and by now they know Trump won't, not even if they pull a false flag stunt. If fact Trump looks more likely to pull the US out of Europe altogether.

The chief obstacle was always Zelensky refusing to accept the obvious and steadfastly refusing any peace deal that was not Russia's complete capitulation in spite of the fact that Ukraine was going backwards and Russia was clearly winning. Sure he had lots of words that said the opposite but they were all made up by himself and Ukrainian intel chief Budanov for the gullible west's consumption who really, really wanted to believe.

So long as Zelensky allowed himself to be pushed along by his own vainglorious fantasies and the Europeans and Americans who desperately needed a NATO victory, even if it did come down to the last Ukrainian, then Ukraine would continue to march to a inglorious death led by the minstrel, his theatrical agent, and accompanied by EU marching band music.

Russia doesn't care, they would have been happy with the Minsk 1, or then the Minsk 2 agreements, or the Istanbul agreement, or just the 4 eastern oblasts and Crimea, but now it looks like they'll get at least Kharkov and Odessa too before Zelensky bows to the inevitable.

And once it's over and all the lies start to come out there will probably be no safe place for Zelensky to hide, his own supporters will find him and turn on him.

Principle of the truths to come is the deaths data and it will shock. The recent release of documents that are claimed to have been stolen from the respective militaries (previously reposted on this thread) that though unverified do tally very closely with other unverified data already revealed by other sources.

The data shows that over the course of the 3 and a half years of war so far, on average Russia has lost 10,000 men per month and Ukraine has lost 40,000 men per month.

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
1 hour
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 09.10.25 were approximately /
The estimated total combat losses of the enemy
from 24.02.22 to 09.10.25
personnel – about / about 1119390 (+1020) persons
tanks / tanks – 11241 (+1) from
troop-carrying AFVs – 23325 (+1) from
artillery systems / artillery systems – 33534 (+15) from
MLRS / MLRS – 1517 (+0) from
anti-aircraft systems / anti-aircraft systems – 1225 (+0) from
aircraft / aircraft – 427 (+0) from
helicopters – 346 (+0)
UAV operational-tactical level – 68293 (+328)
cruise missiles – 3841 (+0)
warships – 28 (+0)
submarines – 1 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks – 63705 (+55)
special equipment – ​​3973 (+0)