Why I think The Holy Grail cannot exist

1
Ok let's suppose we have the supa dupa holy grail that never fails.
on the upper section of the graph, we have some price action. as you can see, the holy grail indicator predicted perfectly the ups and downs of the price
WOW that's one helluva indicator....right ?
RIGHT?

then let's suppose one month later we have the exact same price action (won't happen but could happen). Of course the holy grail indicator will put an up arrow at the exact same place as before right ? because nothing changed, the price action is *exactly* the same. The indicator doesn't have a crystal ball that will tell him price will go down this time.
so the indicator will put an up arrow, and what happens next, price goes down violently.
then the holy grail was wrong.

this is for me the absolute proof that a no-loss indicator cannot exist.

what do you think ?

Jeff


Re: Why I think The Holy Grail cannot exist

2
不知论坛有没有人对佛经感兴趣。佛经与圣经是非常不相同的。
《金刚经》是佛经中很特别的一部。
《金刚经》说:“一切诸佛及诸佛阿耨多罗三藐三菩提法,皆从此经出。"
《金刚经》说:“过去心不可得,现在心不可得,未来心不可得。”


但是,技术分析的最基本的假设前提是以下3点:
1.市场行为包容消化一切;
2.价格以趋势方式演变;
3.历史会重演。
第3点,历史会重演,那就意味着,反映过去走势轨迹的指标,一定会预示未来的(可能)走势。就是说,“圣杯”是存在的!
而且,“西蒙斯有圣杯”,很多人几乎是相信的。

你质疑技术分析的基本假设,那就意味着,你认为未来不可预知,地球上不存在可以预知未来的“圣标”,所以,技术分析没必要。 :D

历史会重演:
技术分析和市场行为学与人类心理学有着千丝万缕的联系。比如价格形态,它们通过一些特定的价格图表形状表现出来,而这些图形表示了人们对某市场看好或看淡的心理。其实这些图形在过去的几百年里早已广为人知、并被分门别类了。既然它们在过去很管用,就不妨认为它们在未来同样有效,因为它们是以人类心理为根据的,而人类心理从来就是"江山易改本性难移"。"历史会重演"说得具体点就是,打开未来之门的钥匙或圣杯,隐藏在历史里,或者说将来是过去的翻版。 :D

Re: Why I think The Holy Grail cannot exist

3
太虚一毫 wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:28 pm 不知论坛有没有人对佛经感兴趣。佛经与圣经是非常不相同的。
《金刚经》是佛经中很特别的一部。
《金刚经》说:“一切诸佛及诸佛阿耨多罗三藐三菩提法,皆从此经出。"
《金刚经》说:“过去心不可得,现在心不可得,未来心不可得。”


但是,技术分析的最基本的假设前提是以下3点:
1.市场行为包容消化一切;
2.价格以趋势方式演变;
3.历史会重演。
第3点,历史会重演,那就意味着,反映过去走势轨迹的指标,一定会预示未来的(可能)走势。就是说,“圣杯”是存在的!
而且,“西蒙斯有圣杯”,很多人几乎是相信的。

你质疑技术分析的基本假设,那就意味着,你认为未来不可预知,地球上不存在可以预知未来的“圣标”,所以,技术分析没必要。 :D

历史会重演:
技术分析和市场行为学与人类心理学有着千丝万缕的联系。比如价格形态,它们通过一些特定的价格图表形状表现出来,而这些图形表示了人们对某市场看好或看淡的心理。其实这些图形在过去的几百年里早已广为人知、并被分门别类了。既然它们在过去很管用,就不妨认为它们在未来同样有效,因为它们是以人类心理为根据的,而人类心理从来就是"江山易改本性难移"。"历史会重演"说得具体点就是,打开未来之门的钥匙或圣杯,隐藏在历史里,或者说将来是过去的翻版。 :D
english please

Re: Why I think The Holy Grail cannot exist

4
Google Translate, may make the meaning very weird:

The most basic assumptions of technical analysis are the following 3 points:
1. Market behavior is inclusive and digesting everything;
2. Prices evolve in a trending manner;
3. History will repeat itself.
The third point is that history will repeat itself, which means that indicators that reflect the trajectory of past trends will definitely predict future (possible) trends. In other words, the "Holy Grail" exists!
Moreover, "Simons has the Holy Grail", many people almost believe it.

You question the basic assumptions of technical analysis, which means that you believe that the future is unpredictable, and there is no “holy sign” that can predict the future on earth, so technical analysis is unnecessary.

History will repeat itself:
Technical analysis and market behavior are inextricably linked with human psychology. For example, price patterns, they are expressed through some specific price chart shapes, and these graphics express people's optimistic or bearish psychology towards a certain market. In fact, these graphics have been widely known and categorized in the past few hundred years. Since they were very useful in the past, you might as well think that they will be equally effective in the future, because they are based on human psychology, and human psychology has always been "easy to change and hard to change." "History will repeat itself" to put it concretely is that the key or holy grail that opens the door to the future is hidden in history, or that the future is a copy of the past.

Re: Why I think The Holy Grail cannot exist

5
ionone wrote: Mon Oct 25, 2021 8:11 pm Ok let's suppose we have the supa dupa holy grail that never fails.
on the upper section of the graph, we have some price action. as you can see, the holy grail indicator predicted perfectly the ups and downs of the price
WOW that's one helluva indicator....right ?
RIGHT?

then let's suppose one month later we have the exact same price action (won't happen but could happen). Of course the holy grail indicator will put an up arrow at the exact same place as before right ? because nothing changed, the price action is *exactly* the same. The indicator doesn't have a crystal ball that will tell him price will go down this time.
so the indicator will put an up arrow, and what happens next, price goes down violently.
then the holy grail was wrong.

this is for me the absolute proof that a no-loss indicator cannot exist.

what do you think ?

Jeff
The very fact that a no-loss indicator does not exist is the basis of the Forex market. Without the variable nature of the market, the ability for everyone to always win would immediately shut down the markets. If you understand that price is driven by sentiment, be it institutions or retail traders you then have to ask, can human behaviour be predicted? Of course the answer is no, therefore neither can the price of an instrument.

The real question is can you trade a variable market successfully? The answers is trade and money management. In your example you still take the same long but you SL would be taken out in one scenario and your TP in the other. Depending on your management, the difference is about 1:5 RR. If my average is 5 losses and 1 win, I am trading the wrong system or my money management is flawed.

Rgds
RM


Re: Why I think The Holy Grail cannot exist

7
entry and exit with the trend, both trades successful ....so, I think that trading should happen between London open and London close, there is no volatility outside that timeframe, markets are active when there is money, and that is between London open and London close, it is like a working day for traders, so what is needed is to find current trend and good entry "arrows" and somekind of exit, adr filled or whatever

edit. just saw that these was H1, so I would not trade this, because trading intraday is what I do, I want to sleep without thinking about trades that I have open, so I usually close all trades around London close, sometimes could go like 2 hours after that, but no open trades when going to sleep

Re: Why I think The Holy Grail cannot exist

9
2 first here is taken when London still open, just over 100 pips, just trend and entry and exit, all trades here successful, but why trade when there is no volatility, 4 trades and just over 20 pips

simple stuff, most important is that there is trend, if not, no trading


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