Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#31
ImpLaNT wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:53 am
josi wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:28 am
According to the rules of the last setup, you would have a false entrance in the place indicated by the arrow
I don't know whether you can see this my way at all - but your arrow - for me - gives a perfect example of why it is not a problem of entry and exit.
If your directional bias wouldn't have ended before price actually turned upwards then this would not have been a valid upward entry at all.
I - for example - never saw this first up (your arrow indicates) as a long entry because price at this moment was still below EMA80 and fighting to get across it - I use EMAs sometimes as a simple helper to decide on directional bias (think EMA5-20-80 to emulate M15-H1-H4 - because so many traders use EMAs that they almost always work as support and resistance as well as directional bias + they don't repaint like ZigZag. But that's outside the Xard-system and is neither here nor there).


Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#32
josi wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:12 pm
aaven wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:00 pm

I must say I agree with aaven's analysis and don't see why you'd take a sell at that poínt or why you'd think you had a 2nd dot telling you to go down.
So any precise explanation would be welcome.
Maybe - please don't lose your patience - you could analyse it on your chart in 3 steps:
a) directional bias: here begins the long leg up or down
b) here is my 2nd dot within the bigger movement and therefore my enty signal
c) here is the place I will exit the trade for reason (a, b, c)
I presume your setup is much more complicated and we will try to understand the ins and outs of that as we move along. Maybe you can see it as the crutch to get us going.

P.S.: I also tried to get your version running (on Linux): Hell froze over - never worked. So I have to try to do (and understand) your analysis from watching.
But up to now - all your posts are miles ahead (relative to analysis and precison and keeping to the topic at hand) of what is going on in Xard's original thread.
Good. I will try to explain everything again;)
So, look at that very picture ...

Screenshot_20.png


In this case, I considered Nikkei’s sales on the M15 TF. Accordingly, we are guided by the blue lines and numbers. Any position opening on any timeframe starts from the number 2. This is the main rule !. The picture shows that peak 2 (blue) has formed and you can begin to consider the entrance to the sale. Further, in post number 25, I explained why I refused to sell. Extreme Spike indicator saved me from the wrong entry, which showed further price behavior.

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#34
ImpLaNT wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:29 pm
Look at DJI....
Waiting for open sell position....
Yes; i thought so this morning (London open) but it has moved back up and is in a range (bounced upwards several times off the EMA80; on H1 it practically sits on EMA20; on D1 it crossed EMA20 and is now retesting it - so at least on D1 this could also be what Walter Peters calls a "last kiss trade" in his book Naked Forex).
Totally overbought but still upwards momentum on higher TF.
Wait and see.


Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#36
ImpLaNT wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:01 pm
Open sell position on Dow
My stop 22610
It will be very interesting to see how this works out.
We are back in the range of the 26th before price broke up.
There seems to be little room downward in the very short term.
Price very much looks as if it is in no man's land right now - so consolidation because the market is undecided.
But medium term (as far as M15 can be seen as such) it might also be what Wyckoff called the distribution phase.
And may I ask: why SL 22610 - to me it looks as if the sell bias disappears much earlier than that.
And if your directional bias has to change the sell is no longer valid and should be exited.
As to your histo-indi: is it based on MAs? If it is - I don't know but it looks as if it might be - then it won't give valid signals while price is in a range - MA-signals don't work in ranges, at least not in any tradable way that I can see (price action - extremes - or oscillators would give a better signal during ranges).
And then, of course, the decisive aspect: the Xard-system is a trend following system: are we in a downtrend right now?
We have lower highs but do we have lower lows?
Do you use a fixed TP?
I hope you don't think my questions are meant as criticism. They are decidedly not.
I admire that you ALONE have the guts and the seriousness to trade live and show it to people in order to improve the system.
And I hope you will continue in order to make us all better and more proficient traders.

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#37
josi wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:18 pm
ImpLaNT wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:01 pm
Open sell position on Dow
My stop 22610
It will be very interesting to see how this works out.
We are back in the range of the 26th before price broke up.
There seems to be little room downward in the very short term.
Price very much looks as if it is in no man's land right now - so consolidation because the market is undecided.
But medium term (as far as M15 can be seen as such) it might also be what Wyckoff called the distribution phase.
And may I ask: why SL 22610 - to me it looks as if the sell bias disappears much earlier than that.
And if your directional bias has to change the sell is no longer valid and should be exited.
As to your histo-indi: is it based on MAs? If it is - I don't know but it looks as if it might be - then it won't give valid signals while price is in a range - MA-signals don't work in ranges, at least not in any tradable way that I can see (price action - extremes - or oscillators would give a better signal during ranges).
And then, of course, the decisive aspect: the Xard-system is a trend following system: are we in a downtrend right now?
We have lower highs but do we have lower lows?
Do you use a fixed TP?
I hope you don't think my questions are meant as criticism. They are decidedly not.
I admire that you ALONE have the guts and the seriousness to trade live and show it to people in order to improve the system.
And I hope you will continue in order to make us all better and more proficient traders.
Hi guys, just dropped in. I have my own doubts on the direction Xard took with the grail series (much pleasing visually, but partly sacrificed my beloved pullback-approach), so I started a separate MT4 for the Grail-series. I had problems reserving consistency regarding the old one, so I replaced it with your System.zip as it seems more robust than my leftover-mix.

Regarding the recent trade: I agree with both of you in some aspects. This is a valid sell trade for me, but with less exposure, faster management (waves are a bit shallow, and I'm cautious with playing for reversal)
Pullbacks can be treated a bit riskier, but faster way, and more securely. Following the first approach (considering short) you just need a lower high mostly confirmed (Implant's justification is enough for this). The more conservative, secure, but later entry is to wait for a lower low, too (Josi's legitimate concern); by now we have that, too. Still we can only have a complex correction and price can turn the other way, hence the tight SL, and

I have some partly subjective factors to justify the downward bias:
- Murray Math: coming from 8/8th
- it's Friday in a volatile environment

SL: I totally agree with Josi, this trade fails at getting over the 2nd dot -> SL at around 22450
TP: in volatile, sharp environment I would use TP and wouldn't follow the price: 161,8 Fibonacci on previous swing (the increase from 1st white dot to 2nd).

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#38
josi wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:18 pm

And may I ask: why SL 22610 - to me it looks as if the sell bias disappears much earlier than that.
And if your directional bias has to change the sell is no longer valid and should be exited.

Implant: Stoploss I calculate as follows: last extremum + 3 * current spread. In the current case: 22502 + 3 * 36 = 22610. And the current stop is still relevant.

As to your histo-indi: is it based on MAs? If it is - I don't know but it looks as if it might be - then it won't give valid signals while price is in a range - MA-signals don't work in ranges, at least not in any tradable way that I can see (price action - extremes - or oscillators would give a better signal during ranges).

Implant: Yes, the histogram in the bottom window is based on two MAs. It is used in collaboration with the Xard system as a whole for mutual filtering of false signals of each other. I hope that there will still be times when we will see this in action.

And then, of course, the decisive aspect: the Xard-system is a trend following system: are we in a downtrend right now?
We have lower highs but do we have lower lows?

Implant: Perhaps now we are at the very beginning. It’s still impossible to say for sure. But in principle, this is not so important, because we work on very small timeframes. They saw the possibility of entering according to the rules - that means they opened a position. This is the beauty of the system - a fairly clear and intuitive interpretation of the current situation.

Do you use a fixed TP?

Implant: No, I do not use fixed TP. In the future, I hope we touch on this point ...
Screenshot_6.png

Today I decided to close the position according to the old reliable method of maestro Xard at the level of 61.8 ADRs. There is no particular logic to this. I just proceeded from those considerations that I do not want to leave the position open for the weekend. Now we live in a very turbulent time. And the markets are the same. Therefore, on the weekend, I don’t want to think about where we will open on Monday. By my logic, if it weren’t Friday, I would set TP to 100% ADR

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#39
Thank you for your conclusive answers.
I had a very interesting day following your actions and I am quite impressed by the calmness and rigour with which you executed - what seemed to me - a somewhat sluggish trade.
I must confess for the first two hours or so I had my doubts about the validity of the signal.
I - today - would have prefered BRN and GBPNZD because trendwise they looked much more straightforward to me.
I am looking forward to your new endeavers next week.
Have a relaxing weekend.

PS: I guess you saw how Xard himself traded the Dow today. The comparison also seems interesting.
PPS: It was the right choice to exit the trade, it would seem.

Re: Trading XARD system (Christmas Setup)

#40
ImpLaNT wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:53 pm
aaven wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:00 pm

1. Could you help me clarify, what is the reason for taking a sell: Is it because we have consider only the numbers marked in blue, 0,1 & 2 like in the arrows of the snapshot

YES!!!

2. Also, I understand we are working on 15 Minute Time Frame. The white Lines correspond to 5 Minute top/bottom.

YES!!!

There are some very thick lines,some are Red and some are blue. Could you please help clarify the color scheme.

What lines are you talking about?
Implant,

What i wanted to ask you was: The thick red lines as shown in the snapshot, what are they?Are they some kind of Zig-Zag on a much higher time frame than M15? Do they define the starting point, which gives our original bias?
Thick Red Lines.png
i removed some of the indicators for taking the snapshot to make it clear. Thanks for your patience. I am learning a lot in a single day. You are dissecting the system and making it easy to understand.


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