EURUSD: Daily Technical Outlook on Major

761
mlawson71 wrote: Wed Dec 18, 2019 11:37 pm It found a resistance at 1.1175, I should have known better than to expect big changes in the week before Christmas.
Yes, the end of the year always sucks for trades :sad:

Daily Technical Outlook on Major - EUR/USD


Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Bearish divergences

21 HR EMA
1.1123

55 HR EMA
1.1132

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
40

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.1199 - Last Fri's 6-month high (AUS)
1.1175 - This week's high (Tue)
1.1158 - Mon's high

Support
1.1111 - Y'day's low
1.1071 - Last Wed's low
1.1041 - Dec 06 low

EUR/USD - 1.1116.. Euro remained on the back foot in Wed's session. Price met renewed selling at 1.1154 (AUS) n fell to 1.1127 in Europe. Despite recovery to 1.1142, price resumed intra-day fall to session lows of 1.1111 in NY.

On the bigger picture, euro resumed its LT upmove fm 2017 near 14-year low of 1.0341 to a fresh 3-year peak of 1.2555 in mid-Feb 2018. Despite subsequent selloff to 1.1216 in Nov 2018, then to a fresh 28-month bottom at 1.0880 on 1st day in Oct, euro's strg rebound n rally abv Sep's 1.1109 top to 1.1179 in Oct suggests temporary low has been made. As euro has risen abv 1.1179 to a 4-month peak of 1.1199 last Fri, suggesting said upmove fm 1.0880 would head to 1.1249 (Aug high), however, 'bearish divergences' on daily indicators should cap price at 1.1281 (100% proj. of 1.0880-1.1179 measured fm 1.0982). On the downside, below 1.1041 signals MT rise has made a top n risks retracement twd 1.0982.

Today, euro's selloff fm a 4-month peak of 1.1199 to 1.1112 last Fri, then intra-day break there confirms MT rise fm 2019 bottom at 1.0880 (Oct) has made a temp. top n consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.10 60/70, o/sold readings on hourly oscillators should keep price abv 1.1041.

Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/daily ... 1912190817
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EURUSD: Rejected above key hurdle ahead of US Personal Spending data

763
mlawson71 wrote: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:57 pm EUR/USD is back to testing the support at 1.1115 - 1.1100. Even if it breaks out below that level it may not drop much lower.
Are you still in that EURUSD trade bro? Was it a long position?

EUR/USD: Rejected above key hurdle ahead of US Personal Spending data


  • Long-upper wick attached to the weekly candle is signaling bull exhaustion.
  • EUR/USD will likely suffer a deeper drop if the US data blows past expectations.
  • EUR/USD bulls need a weekly close above a falling trendline hurdle.

EUR/USD is looking heavy ahead of the key US data release.

The pair's weekly candle now has a long upper shadow, which is a telltale sign of buyers running out of steam above the resistance of the trendline falling from September 2018 and June 2019 highs.

The trendline resistance is currently seen at 1.1148. The pair had risen to a high of 1.1175 on Tuesday, but fell back below 1.1148 on the following day.

The pair made another attempt to scale the trendline hurdle on Thursday but failed. Similar price action was witnessed last week.

The repeated failure on the part of the bulls to force a convincing break above trendline has bolstered downside risks, which will likely materialize if the US data due today blows past expectations.

Focus on US data

The third-quarter gross domestic product is predicted to be unchanged at 2.1%. The number was revised upwards from the initial release of 1.9% to 2.1% last month. The GDP stood at 2.0% in the second quarter and 3.1% in the first quarter.

The final number rarely moves markets, unless there is a significant upward or downward change to first revision (2.1% in this case).

The GDP will be released at 13:30 GMT and Personal Spending, Personal Income and Fed's preferred measure of inflation – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (Core PCE) will be released at 15:00 GMT.

Better-Than-Expected personal spending and Core PCE will validate the Fed's recent decision to pause rate cuts and send the dollar higher.

On the flip side, a big miss will likely fuel dollar sell-off. The outlook for EUR/USD will turn bullish only if the pair prints a weekly close above the trendline hurdle at 1.1148.


Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-r ... 1912200413
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EURUSD: Second straight yearly loss

766
EUR/USD eyes second straight yearly loss


  • EUR/USD is reporting a 3.17% drop on a year-to-date basis.
  • Trade tensions weighed over the Euro in 2019.
  • The pair suffered a double-digit slide in 2017.
  • Material improvement in the Eurozone economic data is needed to fuel gains in the EUR.

EUR/USD has erased a major chunk of the gains seen in the January 2017-February 2018 period and is on track to end 2019 on a negative note.

At press time, the pair is trading at 1.1082, representing a 3.17 percent drop on a year-to-date basis. The pair fell by 14.14% in 2018.

Also, the pair has retraced more than 60 percent of the rally from the January 2017 low of 1.0341 to February 2018 high of 1.2556.

Trade tensions weighed on Euro in 2019

The Euro has had a tough time, despite the US Federal Reserve embarking on a 1990s-style mini easing. The central bank cut rates by 25 basis points in July, September, and October to cushion the economy against risks arising from the Sino-US trade war. Further, the Fed expanded its balance sheet by more than $300 billion in the September-December period.

Even so, the dollar held ground against the single currency, as escalating trade tensions pushed Germany on the brink of recession. Also, the European Central Bank cut rates further into the negative territory in September and announced a new bond-buying program.

Recovery ahead?

The trade tensions have eased somewhat recently with the US and China reaching a phase-one trade deal.

More importantly, with the elections due in November 2020, President Trump has a strong incentive to soften his stance on China and agree to a trade truce if not a comprehensive deal.

As a result, many observers expect EUR/USD to gain ground in 2020. However, sustained gains will likely remain elusive if the Eurozone economic data fails to show material improvement.

Technical levels
Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-e ... 1912230411 (Article)
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