EUR/USD still trying to make up its mind as price pivots around the 1.12 handle

Currently sits at the lows for the day at 1.1183


The run lower yesterday stalled at the near-term trendline support as well as near the 38.2 retracement level @ 1.1165. Price then ran back above the 1.1200 handle before falling again in the past few hours below the trendline support.

The back-and-forth action isn't really telling us much about where the pair is headed next as price continues to sit in a precarious position for the time being.

Of note, any further upside move requires a break above the 100-day moving average @ 1.1228. Meanwhile, any firm break to the downside requires a move back below the key hourly moving averages - seen closer to 1.1137-45.

Essentially, price is trading right in the middle of those key levels at the moment. However, the break below the near-term trendline support is encouraging for sellers. If they can build on that momentum and chase a move below yesterday's low, then a move to test the 100-hour MA (red line) and 200-hour MA (blue line) is on the cards.

I reckon the next key directional move will be to go with either a break of the risk levels outlined above. For now, it's hard to draw any conclusions from price action over the past twelve hours or so.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... e-20190807

The move north continues as I thought, I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches 1.1300.

mlawson71 wrote: Thu Aug 08, 2019 12:05 am The move north continues as I thought, I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches 1.1300.

Complete turnaround this week! I don't know if it will end the 11-year downtrend we've been seeing since the GFC in 2008, though

EUR/USD: Up move is approaching resistance – Commerzbank


According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD’s up move is approaching resistance at 1.1285 and the 200 day ma at 1.1297.

Key Quotes

“Key resistance is 1.1360/77, the 2018-2019 down channel and the 55 week ma. A weekly close above this latter level is needed for us to adopt an outright bullish stance.”

“Dips lower are likely to find some support circa 1.1150/06. Key support is the 1.0967 2018-2019 support line and below here lies the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814/78.6% retracement.”

“The market will need to regain the 55 week ma and channel at 1.1360/77 to generate upside interest.”

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-u ... 1908080604 (Article)

It did form a very noticeable spinning top on the weekly time-frame at 1.1025, so I think the current move north may not be short-lived.

mlawson71 wrote: Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:30 am It did form a very noticeable spinning top on the weekly time-frame at 1.1025, so I think the current move north may not be short-lived.

Good spotting, I didn't see that!

EUR/USD: Italian political uncertainty could cap gains

• EUR/USD's upside could be capped around 1.1250 on Italian political uncertainty.
• Italy-German yield spreads could rise sharply in EUR-bearish manner.
• A below-forecast German data could push EUR/USD below key support at 1.1177.

EUR/USD has picked up a bid while heading into the London open, however, during the day ahead, the upside could be capped by Italian uncertainty.

The currency pair is currently trading at 1.1196, representing 0.15% gains on the day.

The common currency ran into offers around 1.1230 on Thursday and ended the day on a negative note at 1.1180, forming an inverted hammer, likely due to political tensions in Italy.

Salvini pulls the plug on the government

The leader of Italy's ruling League party and Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini pulled the plug on government and said the only way forward was to hold fresh elections.

Salvini’s move reportedly prompted Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to trigger a process that could lead to elections as early as October.

The heightened political uncertainty could lead to a sharp widening of the Italy-German yield spread in the EUR-negative manner. The 10-year yield differential spiked by 12 basis points yesterday.

As a result, EUR/USD may have a tough time extending gains above Tuesday's Doji candle's high of 1.1250.

The EUR may take a hit and drop below 1.1177, validating Thursday's bearish hammer if the German data, due at 06:00 GMT, shows a sharp slide in exports in June.

In the US session, the focus would shift to the US Producer Price Index. Also, the ratings agency Fitch will be reviewing the rating outlook for Italian sovereign debt in the US afternoon.

Trend: Downtrend

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-i ... 1908090412 (Article)

There's a downward consolidation below 1.1250 but I think that is just in preparation for the next move north.

EURO ???????
Does we have a 100 pips gap on monday ????

We'll have to wait and see for that.
In my opinion, the consolidation will probably continue through Monday before the pair begins another move north.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: A new visit to 1.1100 and below still remains on the table

• EUR/USD keeps the rangebound theme unchanged so far today despite the re-emergence of some selling bias.
• Extra gains remain limited by the 1.1223/31 band, where converge the 100-day and 55-day SMAs ahead of monthly tops near 1.1250.
• The inability of the pair to regain this area of resistance in the near term (the sooner the better) should encourage sellers to return to the market on a more convincing fashion, motivating spot to retreat to, initially, the 1.1100 neighbourhood ahead of 2019 lows near 1.1020.

Trend: Downtrend

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-t ... 1908120932 (Article)

EUR/USD is rising back up towards 1.1230 but so far there has been no breakout below or above the consolidation. I doubt it will happen today.