The multiple spinning top candlesticks around 1.1370 were a signal for a move south after all. It will likely fall back to 1.1300.

It dropped to 1.1280, let's see whether it will continue depreciating towards 1.1200.

EUR/USD nears weekly lows 1.1280

• EUR/USD comes under pressure near 1.1280.
• Yields of the 10-year Bund drop to all time lows near -0.40%.
• Markets keep digesting Largarde as ECB’s Chief.

The selling pressure is now picking up pace around the European currency and is dragging EUR/USD to the area of weekly lows in the 1.1280/75 band.

EUR/USD focused on yields, Lagarde, data

The pair is consolidating in the lower end of the weekly range around 1.1280 as market participants continue to adjust to the appointment of (now former) IMF’s Christine Lagarde to succeed Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank (ECB).

In addition, EUR is deriving extra downside pressure after yields of the German benchmark 10-year Bund are trading in all-time lows near the -0.40% level, favouring a wider spread vs. the US 10-year reference and therefore lending wings to the buck.

Later in the session, final June services PMIs are unlikely to be a market mover, while all the attention should be on the US docket, where the ADP report and the ISM Non-manufacturing will be the salient events.

What to look for around EUR

The renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics should dictate the price action around the pair in the near term, helped at the same time by the broad risk-appetite trends and the recent positive developments from the US-China trade front. Further out, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current dovish attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate always gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.02% at 1.1282 and faces the next down barrier at 1.1275 (monthly low Jul.2) followed by 1.1259 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1181 (low Jun.18). On the flip side, a break above 1.1337 (200-day SMA) would target 1.1412 (high Jun.25) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-f ... 1907030655 (Article)

I think we may actually see it drop towards 1.1200 too.

EUR/USD continues to correct lower


Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that EUR/USD pair continues to correct lower near term/ease back from the 1.1411 55 week moving average.

Key Quotes

“The Elliott wave count is suggesting a retracement into the 1.1265/30 band and beyond this we look for recovery and further gains. Above 1.1412 (last weeks high) we look for a test of the 1.1570 2019 high. Slightly longer term we target 1.1815/54 (highs from June and September 2018). Initial support lies at 1.1264/13th May high, ahead of 1.1176 the 7 th March high, which we look to hold.”

“We regard recent lows at 1.1110/06 as an interim turning point and continue to view the market as based longer term and we target 1.1990 (measurement higher from the wedge).”

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-c ... 1907040559 (Article)

EUR/USD is still consolidating around 1.1280, I hope the NFP tomorrow will finally end that.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Further losses are likely while capped by the 200-day SMA at 1.1332

• The pair is prolonging the sideline trade in the 1.1280/70 region so far today.
• As long as the key 200-day SMA, today at 1.1232, caps the upside, further losses to, initially, 1.1181, should remain well on the cards.
• On the opposite side, a surpass of the 1.1330/40 band should alleviate downside pressure and allow EUR/USD to refocus on monthly peaks near 1.1420.

EUR/USD daily chart


Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-t ... 1907050721

EURUSD drops but we'll see it spring back later in the session most likely

It may bounce off from 1.1200 by the end of the day.

EUR/USD slides closer to Friday’s post-NFP swing low, just above 1.1200 handle

• A modest USD pullback helped regain some traction on Monday.
• Dismal Euro-zone data prompts some fresh selling at higher levels.
• Comments by Coeure (whoever that is :| ) exerts some additional pressure in the last hour.

Having touched an intraday high level of 1.1235, the EUR/USD pair met with some fresh supply and has now moved back within the striking distance of Friday's post-NFP swing low.

With investors looking past Friday's upbeat headline US NFP print, a modest US Dollar pullback - led by the US President Donald Trump's fresh criticism about the Fed's policy tightening, helped the pair to gain some positive traction at the start of a new trading week.

The shared currency, however, failed to capitalize on the move, rather started losing ground following the release of Euro-zone July Sentix investor confidence, which fell to -5.8 - the weakest level since November 2014 and highlighted that a German recession is looming.

Meanwhile, the latest leg of a downtick over the past hour or so followed the ECB Governing Council member Benoit Coeure's comments, saying that accommodative policy is needed "more than ever" and that they could restart the asset purchases program if needed.

However, absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US might help limit any further downside for the major, though a sustained breakthrough the 1.1200 handle now seems to open the room for an extension of the intraday depreciating move.

Moving ahead, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's public appearance on Tuesday, followed by a two-day Congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, along with this week's US consumer inflation figures will now play an important role in influencing the pair’s next leg of a directional move.


Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-s ... 1907081135 (Article)