EURUSD holds at three-month highs, buyers poised to extend break higher

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mlawson71 wrote: Mon Jun 24, 2019 12:18 am Do you think it will keep rallying next week?
Yes! :thumbup:

EUR/USD holds at three-month highs, buyers poised to extend break higher

EUR/USD sits just under the 1.1400 so far in the European morning


Buyers are still looking poised following a break of the 200-day MA (blue line) on Friday for the first time since May 2018. Price is extending higher on the day as the pair trades just under the 1.1400 handle but for now I would still say the dollar's decline is rather modest.

Of note, there are large expiries resting at 1.1395-00 (roughly €1.6 billion as of now) so that perhaps is playing a role in capping price action for the time being.

Looking at the bigger picture, the technical break is very suggestive of a further extension towards resistance at 1.1420 next before further resistance is only seen around 1.1450-65. However, the significance of the break on Friday shouldn't be understated and the retracement higher here could have legs to run purely based on technical sentiment alone.

That said, there are a couple of key risk events coming up later this week with Fed chair Powell's speech tomorrow and euro area inflation data still coming on Thursday and Friday. Not to forget, there's also the Trump-Xi meeting as well to consider in all of this.

But for now, buyers are in control - the first time in a long time - so let's see if they can maintain the momentum from the break last week. The risk for buyers now is if price falls back below the 200-day MA.

Source: https://www.forexlive.com/technical-ana ... r-20190624
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EURUSD challenges weekly lows in the 1.1350 area ahead of German CPI

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EUR/USD challenges weekly lows in the 1.1350 area ahead of German CPI


  • EUR/USD falls to the 1.1350 region, closer to multi-day lows.
  • German June’s advanced CPI figures next of relevance in Euroland.
  • US final Q1 GDP figures coming up later in the NA session.

The selling bias around the shared currency remains well and sound in the second half of the week and is now forcing EUR/USD to test the lower bound of the range in the mid-1.1300s.

EUR/USD near the 200-day/week SMA

Spot comes under further downside pressure early on Thursday and is challenging the critical contention zone in the mid-1.1300s, where coincide the 200-day and 200-week SMAs.

Diminishing concerns on the US-China trade front and a potential Trump-Xi meeting at the G-20 event later in the week have all collaborated with the improved mood in the risk-associated complex in past hours.

Higher US yields are fuelling the outflows from the Japanese safe haven and are propping up the correction higher in USD/JPY, in turn lending extra wings to the buck.

Moving forward, several gauges of sentiment and confidence are due in Euroland, although the salient event will be the publication of advanced inflation figures in Germany for the month of June.

Across the pond, weekly Claims are due seconded by Pending Home Sales and the final revision of the GDP for the January-March period.

The continuation of the down move is following Tuesday’s bearish ‘outside day’ at the time when market participants appears to have relegated probable rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to the back-seat as the main catalyst for the price action, focusing instead on the tangible likeliness of ECB’s rate cuts and/or QE.

What to look for around EUR

The renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics should dictate the price action around the pair in the near term, helped at the same time by the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Further out, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current dovish attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.16% at 1.1350 and faces the next down barrier at 1.1344 (low Jun.25) followed by 1.1259 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1181 (low Jun.18). On the flip side, a break above 1.1412 (high Jun.25) would target 1.1419 (high Feb.28) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-c ... 1906270541 (Article)
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EURUSD: Murray Math Lines

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Murrey Math Lines: EURUSD

EURUSD, "Euro vs. US Dollar"

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is still trading above 6/8. In this case, the price is expected to continue growing to reach the resistance at 8/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 6/8. After that, the instrument may resume moving downwards to reach the support at 4/8.


In the M15 chart, the pair is moving between the lines of the VoltyChannel indicator, which means that the current situation is quite uncertain. If the price breaks the upside line, the instrument may continue trading upwards; otherwise – downwards.


Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/murre ... 1906280716
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EURUSD falls further and tests lows near 1.1320 ahead of PMIs, ISM

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Wouldn't panic yet, looks like a pullback then further move towards the upside later this week :think:

EURUSD falls further and tests lows near 1.1320 ahead of PMIs, ISM


  • EUR/USD drops to session lows in the 1.1320 region.
  • Final May PMIs, German jobs are due later in Euroland.
  • US ISM manufacturing next of relevant in the NA session.

The single currency remains on the back foot at the beginning of the week and is now dragging EUR/USD to test multi-day lows in the 1.1320 area.

EUR/USD looks to trade, data

The pair broke below last week’s consolidative theme and in doing so it has also breached the critical support area around 1.1350, where emerges the 200-day SMA.

The recently clinched US-China trade truce is sustaining the better tone in the risk-associated complex, pushing US yields higher and helping the buck to extend the rebound. In fact, rising US yields have widened the spread vs. their German peers, favouring the decline of the pair.

Despite the US-China truce appears to be just a temporary relief, it looks sufficient to cool down speculations of a Fed’s move lower on rates along with fears of a global slowdown, all morphing into accelerated outflows from safe havens and a firm note around the buck.

Later in the session, German labour market figures are due along with final manufacturing PMIs for the month of May and some ECB gauges. In the US calendar, all the attention will be on the ISM manufacturing.

What to look for around EUR

The renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics should dictate the price action around the pair in the near term, helped at the same time by the broad risk-appetite trends and the recent positive developments from the US-China trade front. Further out, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current dovish attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate always gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is retreating 0.32% at 1.1330 and faces the next down barrier at 1.1321 (low Jul.1) followed by 1.1260 (100-day SMA) and finally 1.1181 (low Jun.18). On the flip side, a break above 1.1412 (high Jun.25) would target 1.1419 (high Feb.28) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20).

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-f ... 1907010659 (Article)
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