EURUSD: Recovery?

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EUR/USD: Recovery? - Commerzbank


According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD is attempting to recover from approximately 1.1200 and focus remains on the 200 week ma at 1.1348 and the 200 day ma at 1.1356.

Key Quotes

“Dips lower will find initial support at 1.1200 and will ideally be contained by 1.1175. To really ignite upside interest, we suspect a close above 1.1358 is needed to target initially the 1.1570 2019 high. We regard recent lows at 1.1110/06 as an interim turning point.”

“Support at 1.1110/06 is regarded as the break down point to the 2018-2019 support line at 1.1027 and the 1.0814 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.”

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-r ... 1906180558 (Article)
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EURUSD: ECB rate cut bets rise, focus on Fed

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EUR/USD: ECB rate cut bets rise, focus on Fed


  • EUR/USD is on the defensive, courtesy of dovish ECB
  • Markets have priced in at least two Fed rate cuts for 2019.
  • Fed will have a hard time beating market expectations.

EUR/USD will likely trade on the defensive ahead of the Fed, courtesy of rising odds of rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).

The ECB President Mario Draghi hinted at more stimulus on Tuesday, sending the EUR lower across the board.

Notably, the money markets have pulled forward expectations of a 10 basis point rate cut to December from March 2020 seen last week. Further, markets are now also pricing 15 basis point rate cut by June 2020.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair could find acceptance below 1.1180 (Tuesday's low) ahead of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision due at 18:00 GMT today. As of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1192, having hit a high of 1.1202 in the Asian session.

Focus on FOMC

The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged today and lay the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. The market is fully pricing in two 25bps rate cuts by the end of the December FOMC meeting and a 50% chance of a third, according to Reuters.

Federal Reserve Preview June 18-19 FOMC: Proto-Easing
With two rate cuts already priced in, the Fed is going to have a hard time beating market expectations. Moreover, with the US stock markets near record highs, the Fed has little room to sound exceedingly dovish.

Add to that the rising odds of ECB rate cuts and the EUR/USD pair looks set for a deeper drop.

That said, a minor bounce could be seen if the Fed does signal two rate cuts by the year-end. However, a bullish reversal in EUR/USD would be confirmed only above the recent high of 1.1348.

Pivot levels
Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-e ... 1906190417 (Article)
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EURUSD approaches 1.1300 on USD-weakness

499
EUR/USD approaches 1.1300 on USD-weakness


  • EUR/USD gains extra pace and now looks to 1.1300.
  • The greenback remains on the defensive below 97.00.
  • EC’s Consumer Confidence next on the euro docket.

The single currency has regained extra traction in past hours and is now pushing EUR/USD to levels closer to the critical handle at 1.1300 the figure.

EUR/USD moves higher on USD-selling

The renewed and strong selling bias surrounding the greenback is once again lifting spot to the vicinity of the 1.1300 mark today.

In fact, extra selling pressure in the buck turned up yesterday after the FOMC delivered a dovish message. The Fed has now shifted to a more accommodative stance – in line with its G10 peers - and opened the door to rate cuts in the near term.

However, the continuation of the up move in the pair is expected to be short-lived, as the ECB too is now looking to the possibility of lower rates and/or restarting the QE programme if the outlook on the region worsens and inflation fails to move closer to the bank’s target.

Moving forward, the advanced Consumer Confidence gauge by the European Commission is only due in Euroland, while the Philly Fed index, Initial Claims and Current account results are expected across the pond.

What to look for around EUR

The renewed dovish stance from the ECB and USD-dynamics appear to be dictating the price action around the European currency for the time being, relegating to a secondary role the broad risk-appetite trends and trade tensions. Furthermore, the slowdown in the region looks unremitting and reinforces at the same time the current attitude of the central bank. On the political front, Italian politics is expected to remain a source of uncertainty and volatility for EUR, with the centre of the debate gyrating around the country’s opposition to EU fiscal rules as well as the challenging tone from LN’s M.Salvini.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment, the pair is advancing 0.44% at 1.1275 and a breakout of 1.1347 (high Jun.7) would target 1.1353 (200-day SMA) en route to 1.1448 (monthly high Mar.20). On the downside, immediate contention is located at 1.1181 (low Jun.18) seconded by 1.1176 (monthly low Mar.7) and finally 1.1115 (low May 30).

Sources: https://forex-station.com (Chart) & https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-a ... 1906200648 (Article)
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Re: EUR/USD

500
ChuChu Rocket
so yesterday : EUR/USD pair looks set for a deeper drop......it means...sell
today : up move in the pair is expected to be short-lived....it means...don`t buy

Have you been following these tips, and if so, how often they are right?


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