Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Krelian99 wrote:Darkdoji, very nice and interesting so far, but what should be the goal of this thread?  I use a M5 and a M1 chart of one pair to see the price action on the lower tf as confirmation on the M5 chart.
An example is the following hammer candle in H1 and what they look like on the lower tfs:

 

But that isn't really what you want, if I understand you correctly. When you take an academic book or paper you read the Introduction and the Conclusion first. Most of the papers and Theses I read where useless for my goals and I also always take a look on the results, but here we have none of that but the first part of the methodology. So we can't discuss or help or whatever.
Tobi,almost i am agree with all you explained,i like add few words,studying and watching videos and illustrations are for gain knowledge and form some idea,only practice and experience make it perfect.
Indicator is just a tool.

Use it only if it can benefit you. Leave it if you don't know how to use it optimally.


Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Sure Krelian99,

Nice views you have there, of course those are your views and I am not in any position at all to contend with anything you have said. However, what we have put out here has nothing to do with theorizing properly considered, but I can only respond to specifics. You of course appear to have had no time to look at any of the stuff on offer or consider their implications so it is tough for me to follow your thinking. Playing the chaos game for instance is not theoretical and doing so allows an experience that informs directly about how the market actually works. I really have nothing else to suggest. But thank you for your positive engagement - I am not interested in indicators - I am interested mainly in exactly how price moves and timing moves for direction and range as accurately as possible - that is what Multifractal analysis offers.

Cheers

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Darkdoji wrote:Hi Krelian99,Thank you for your direct and useful question. My primary goal is to share the views in the slides and have colleagues like you, introvert the key points and the knowledge on offer as a first step. Secondly, my hope was that the points contained in the slide share would evoke all sorts of comments and expressions which will lead to useful exchanges among colleagues. third, and as you can see I have posted two technical (i.e. mathematical) concepts related to the topic which traders can try out for the experience and the knowledge they provide or consider in forum (as would be the case with the Mandelbrot connection post). Multifractal analysis is not a strategy in trading (TA or otherwise) but a Methodology and if you trade by Multifractal analysis you may not necessarily persist in your current strategy because it allows a holistic view rather than partial views of the iterations we call price movement (TA is some sort of linearizion of the chaotic space) – as such and even now, one might contemplate the benefits of Multifractal analysis relative to TA and FA. At some point ahead, the discussions may progress to what kind of tools (indicators) would be appropriate for an approach like that and of course, there is no place better to discuss such issues than here with great coders like Mladen and mr. tools around. Of course, it is unusual to discuss TA or FA in this way because they are supposedly  “established” methodologies which few people question. But in this case, it would be interesting for instance to review the notion of fractals as espoused by Bill Williams and his indicators and the completely different way () in which fractals have been described in the chaology. I understand and appreciate your technique or strategy and may in the course of discussions highlight a view – but this is not (to my mind) a strategy thread as such so for now I shall merely note it and wait for an opportune time to share my thoughts if any. Finally, sir, if you have an alternative approach or definition of an aim for  the thread you think might be more welcome  or useful to members – I am certainly open to considering it – so long as it does not lead away from the primary aim of announcing the existence of a new and valid methodology and the spreading of what it is technically (i.e. mathematically) and how it differs from TA and FA.Many thanks

PS: This is like a discussion about for instance what TA is, what it's theoretical foundations are, and what it takes to get a good hang.
Darkdoji,i think we are not limited to indicators only but all and every productive discussion that benefits to trading community of all levels and resulting cause/source of gaining knowledge is/are appreciated,not necessarily all or few or some persons agree with as every next person with his own mind set and approach and different way of thinking.
Indicator is just a tool.

Use it only if it can benefit you. Leave it if you don't know how to use it optimally.

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Darkdoji wrote:Sure Krelian99,

Nice views you have there, of course those are your views and I am not in any position at all to contend with anything you have said. However, what we have put out here has nothing to do with theorizing properly considered, but I can only respond to specifics. You of course appear to have had no time to look at any of the stuff on offer or consider their implications so it is tough for me to follow your thinking. Playing the chaos game for instance is not theoretical and doing so allows an experience that informs directly about how the market actually works. I really have nothing else to suggest. But thank you for your positive engagement - I am not interested in indicators - I am interested mainly in exactly how price moves and timing moves for direction and range as accurately as possible - that is what Multifractal analysis offers.

Cheers
I tinkered with fractals years ago and ended up with Wavelets - Elliot Waves is also based on idea. I really like waves and if you do signal-processing or financial market analysis you see that everything moves in waves with some more or less bias. Zooming in or zooming out - quite the same picture. Exactly what you are looking for.

   
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Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Not quite Krelian99,

Elliot Waves is simply based on the idea of statically mapping the Dow psychological waves nothing more - in fact the concept of fractals is dynamical and as such I will scoff at the idea of Elliot Waves being fractals in the scientific sense (if that is what you are suggesting). Also we have gone way beyond pictures of leaves in explaining the concept of fractals and chaos as it directly applies to the markets and can now tell you things that will make your eyes dance within their hold. For instance "everything moves in waves" you say, but fractals move by a specific kind of wave and that is crucial. But I guess you want to know nothing new being certain you know it all (at least with respect to the topic). There are many persons like you in the world in fact who by the same strain of reasoning you have exhibited here (before checking out a fresh perspective) declare the adequacy of their current states with regard to completely new ideas and that is why the diffusion of innovation follows a normal curve. Of course given that this is a profit making business we are all engaged in - there is a chance you fall in to the category of laggards in the diffusion concept. This simply means you will later come to learn from this very thread (may be three or five years from now) what you could have learned now, when the performance of others relay to you that you are behind the times in the knowledge of how the market works. But that is the way of life and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Frankly though we are not about leaves and or the misapplication of the scientific notion of fractals. I hope you appreciate.

Cheers

BTW: The strategy you show for yourself here is an attempt to cope with a specific property of chaotic variables we discuss in terms of non-monotonic evolution. Have you defended against that fully or only partially? Well I guess you will never know and I can only smile. 

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Darkdoji wrote:Not quite Krelian99,

Elliot Waves is simply based on the idea of statically mapping the Dow psychological waves nothing more - in fact the concept of fractals is dynamical and as such I will scoff at the idea of Elliot Waves being fractals in the scientific sense (if that is what you are suggesting). Also we have gone way beyond pictures of leaves in explaining the concept of fractals and chaos as it directly applies to the markets and can now tell you things that will make your eyes dance within their hold. For instance "everything moves in waves" you say, but fractals move by a specific kind of wave and that is crucial. But I guess you want to know nothing new being certain you know it all (at least with respect to the topic). There are many persons like you in the world in fact who by the same strain of reasoning you have exhibited here (before checking out a fresh perspective) declare the adequacy of their current states with regard to completely new ideas and that is why the diffusion of innovation follows a normal curve. Of course given that this is a profit making business we are all engaged in - there is a chance you fall in to the category of laggards in the diffusion concept. This simply means you will later come to learn from this very thread (may be three or five years from now) what you could have learned now, when the performance of others relay to you that you are behind the times in the knowledge of how the market works. But that is the way of life and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Frankly though we are not about leaves and or the misapplication of the scientific notion of fractals. I hope you appreciate.

Cheers

BTW: The strategy you show for yourself here is an attempt to cope with a specific property of chaotic variables we discuss in terms of non-monotonic evolution. Have you defended against that fully or only partially? Well I guess you will never know and I can only smile. 
Hi Darkdoji,let me add few words,let us discuss and explain and listen things in a productive and learning/teaching way,not to be a winner/looser table talk,as you all knows well,traders are of different approaches,some times a very hard,difficult and complicated theory seems so easy for one and some time so easy concept seems hard to pick for next one.
Indicator is just a tool.

Use it only if it can benefit you. Leave it if you don't know how to use it optimally.

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Sure Mntiwana,

There was no put down intended and in fact I was being quite factual about the diffusion of innovation concept. I am not by nature given to putting down traders especially as I know most traders are given to a defensive mindset (because we all spend so much time and effort learning whatever we know and we do not usually take kindly to new ideas that suggest there are things still out there to consider). So be assured that my tone was intended to be measured and factual. I shall in fact attach a presentation guide to allow those not inclined to reading stuff they are not sure they need make a judgment about whether or not they want anything to do with the slides.

Cheers,

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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The psychology happens on all tfs, every market and pairs. The money makers test all the time on their way from bottom to top and res versa whether there are still traders who hinders them to get to their aim. Trading psychology is the cause because Elliot Waves exist. Like your chaos game build a certain pattern, the chart will always look like this after a while because EW is the typical pattern for financial markets. In signal-processing you have wavelets or sinusoids (Fourier Transformation). Water waves and plants have their typical pattern. They must differ from each other, otherwise the market would look like a fern or a dune. I hope that makes sense.

I learn and learned much and am always open-minded. William D. Gann is one of my idols (most people have W. Buffet, not so me). You'll learn your whole life, and I saw so many approaches already I can't count anymore, but meanwhile you have to face reality. Efficiency is a keyword here, in learning and trading. The best approach is worthless when you can't use it. That's why my question for something more to grab, some results or at least a goal.

Re: Chaos theory made simple - for trading

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Look Krelian99,

You got it all wrong. We are talking at cross purposes at best. Why? Because we are not on the same page. Elliot Waves reflect heuristics not based on science and frankly does not express the market mathematically. Dow waves is an especially insightful view (for its time) and I started off years ago a Dow theorist - in fact my impression is that Gann, Elliot Waves, etc were trying to approximate Dow (and given there were no computers back then did a hell of lot trying). But in fact all of that does not matter now - things have changed and we now have computers without which there would not have been chaos or fractals at all. Dow is also pretty stale at this time - things have changed - electronically traded assets has changed all the old ladies stories trainers like to call psychology which are not evidence based - just assumptions. Now I have studied all there is to study on waves and particularly what Ehler has had to offer. DSP is an engineering concept that does not apply to markets. Why? Because market numbers do not behave like sine or cosine waves - really simple. Fractals are completely different animals they are not so smooth as to fit John Ehler's hard work so like the rest while useful he is overtaken by events. So the point I am really trying to make is that unless you read what I have put out it is difficult to the point of impossibility to discuss anything relating to the topic simply because we cannot define things on presumptions.  For instance I studied each master to the core - and can tell you Gann was basically an astrologer who applied a lot of that thinking to markets (and because the movement of celestial bodies is cyclical it is easy for stuff like that to look reasonable even while being completely baseless). I have been around a long time and I am not just saying stuff. In any case, the test of validity for anything market or financial analysis now rests firmly on chaos theory and fractal geometry - those are the relevant sciences and that is why I would encourage you to first read what is written after which you can reject whatever you can prove to be false. I hope you understand my point. Things have changed because we have science firmly behind us now. 

Cheers,

:)


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